Money Slate · 2026-07-29

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-7.00. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	+$3.00	5W / 2L	0 live	🔥 WINNING
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	$0.00	0W / 0L	12 live	(early)
PORTFOLIO	+$3.00	5W / 2L	22 live	71% hit

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks18 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Ben Rice NYY	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CWS @ NYY
Cal Raleigh SEA	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	LAD @ SEA
Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Total Bases, Hits	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CIN @ PIT
Seiya Suzuki CHC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	STL @ CHC
Andy Pages LAD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	SEA @ LAD
CJ Abrams WSH also locks: Hits	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	ATL @ WSH
Carter Jensen KC	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIN @ KC
James Wood WSH	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	ATL @ WSH
Josh Naylor SEA also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	LAD @ SEA
Kyle Stowers MIA	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	NYM @ MIA
Ty France SD also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	SF @ SD
Chase Meidroth CWS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	NYY @ CWS

Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~34% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.86/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Francisco Alvarez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Nick Loftin · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Seiya Suzuki · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Ben Rice · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Cal Raleigh · Hitter Strikeouts 100%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Francisco Alvarez NYM	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	MIA @ NYM
Brett Baty NYM	Hits 🔴 DEMON	0.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIA @ NYM
Nick Loftin KC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	MIN @ KC
Brett Baty NYM	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIA @ NYM
Heriberto Hernández MIA	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYM @ MIA
Nick Gonzales PIT	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	CIN @ PIT
Tyrone Taylor NYM	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIA @ NYM
Seiya Suzuki CHC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	STL @ CHC
Andruw Monasterio BOS	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	ATH @ BOS
Ty France SD	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	SF @ SD
Josh Naylor SEA	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	LAD @ SEA
Seiya Suzuki CHC	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	STL @ CHC

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Francisco Alvarez · Hits+Runs+RBIsNick Loftin · Hits+Runs+RBIsHeriberto Hernández · Total BasesNick Gonzales · Total Bases

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 745 🔴 Demons / 176 🟢 Goblins / 24 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Brice Turang MIL	1.5	MORE	42	4/10 40%	57.5	Solid bat · facing average Webb
2	Cooper Pratt🔥 HOT MIL	1.5	MORE	35	3/10 30%	57.0	Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing average Webb
3	Bryce Eldridge SF	1.5	MORE	47	4/10 40%	54.5	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Drohan (ace, 3.33 ERA)
4	Fernando Tatis Jr.🔥 HOT SD	1.5	MORE	53	5/10 50%	54.1	Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hughes (ace, 2.
5	Heliot Ramos SF	1.5	MORE	48	1/10 10%	53.5	Average bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Drohan (ace, 3.33 ERA)
6	Christian Yelich MIL	1.5	MORE	43	7/10 70%	52.3	Below-avg bat · facing average Webb
7	Jackson Merrill🔥 HOT SD	1.5	MORE	46	6/10 60%	50.5	Average bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hughes (ace,
8	Ty France🔥 HOT SD	1.5	MORE	49	8/10 80%	49.5	Average bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hughes (ace,

High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)

All 3 from SF @ MIL — bigger upside, bigger variance.

#	Player	Stat	Line	Side	L10	Game
1	Brice Turang	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	4/10 40%	SF @ MIL
2	Cooper Pratt	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	3/10 30%	SF @ MIL
3	Christian Yelich	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	7/10 70%	SF @ MIL

Why:

3 batters from SF @ MIL → correlated
If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together

📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)

Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg

Expected payout: 0.61x (EV $-0.39/$1)

Hit	P(k)	Pays
3/3	8%	3.0x
2/3	36%	1.0x

Auto-faded (caught by gates):

Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Gavin Sheets, Xander Bogaerts

🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 2 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST

2-pick

3.0–5.0xpayout range

49.0% combined

EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1

Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.

🔴 DEMLuis Rengifo Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · COL @ SD

🔴 DEMChristian Yelich Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ MIL

$5 → $15–$25

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚖️ BALANCED

4-pick

6.0–10.8xpayout range

44.1% combined

EV $+1.65–$+3.76/$1

2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.

🔴 DEMLuis Rengifo Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · COL @ SD

🔴 DEMChristian Yelich Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ MIL

🟢 GOBJackson Chourio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · SF @ MIL

🟢 GOBTy France Hits MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · COL @ SD

$5 → $30–$54

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-30T05:37.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	70%	132	$+5.20
🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks	67%	100	$+3.40
🟡UNKNOWN	50%	44	$-6.44
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	48%	844	$-3.20
🔴MLB-Total Bases	40%	168	$-32.00
🔴Tennis-Total Games	39%	977	$-21.50

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (977 picks)
🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (168 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (844 picks)
🔴 UNKNOWN — 50% (44 picks)

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted

Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.

Pitcher	Stat	Side	Proj	Edge	Signal	Why
MacKenzie Gorevs TB	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 28.5	32.098	+3.6pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2830 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅NORMAL / SKIP	2/2	100%
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	2/2	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
KC @ MIN	Randy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan	0.823	44%	2.28x	⚡ Kalshi NO
ATL @ NYM	Chris Sale vs Christian Scott	0.843	43%	2.32x	⚡ Kalshi NO
NYY @ CWS	Cam Schlittler vs Davis Martin	0.876	42%	2.4x	⚡ Kalshi NO
BAL @ DET	Trevor Rogers vs Tarik Skubal	0.918	40%	2.5x	⚡ Kalshi NO
AZ @ PIT	Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jared Jones	1.005	37%	2.73x	⚡ Kalshi NO
CLE @ CIN	Joey Cantillo vs Brady Singer	1.103	33%	3.01x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
TOR @ WSH	Trey Yesavage vs Zack Littell	1.344	74%	1.35x	⚡ Kalshi YES
CHC @ STL	Matthew Boyd vs Dustin May	1.329	74%	1.36x	⚡ Kalshi YES
HOU @ LAA	Hayden Wesneski vs Grayson Rodriguez	1.303	73%	1.37x	⚡ Kalshi YES
ATL @ NYM	AJ Smith-Shawver vs Sean Manaea	1.246	71%	1.4x	⚡ Kalshi YES
TEX @ TB	MacKenzie Gore vs Casey Legumina	1.201	70%	1.43x	⚡ Kalshi YES
MIL @ SF	Thomas Pannone vs Logan Webb	1.175	69%	1.45x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

📋 Today's Results (5 locked)

Today's Results — Settled + Live

5 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.

Sport	Pick	Market	Edge	State
MLB	Jackson Holliday ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+99.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Lars Nootbaar ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+98.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Shohei Ohtani ⚪ Over 1.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+90.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Drew Gilbert ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+72.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Leody Taveras ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+67.0pp	✅ WON

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-7.00 (37 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-07-29 22:39:20 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-29.json