edgeboard
MONEY SLATE · LIVE
2026-05-25 09:12 PT · refreshed just now
PITCHERS NOW
VEGAS NOW
LINEUPS NOW
WEATHER NOW
KALSHI HR NOW
PP EDGES NOW
ML EDGES NOW
WC EDGES NOW
TENNIS NOW
TOTAL PICKS
18
locked today
ELITE
2
top tier
STRONG
2
tier 2
REAL $ PLAN
$11
3 fires
Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-53.29. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
SportP&LRecordLiveHealth
⚾ MLB$0.000W / 0L25 live(early)
⚽ WC$0.000W / 0L11 live(early)
🏈 NFLno slate today
PORTFOLIO$0.000W / 0L39 live
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 4 ranked
ELITE · +16.8pp
Paderborn vs Wolfsburg
2026-05-25 Paderborn v Wolfsburg · Match winner
$0
→ $0.00
Fire $0 on Kalshi →
STRONG · +3.5pp
Bryce Harper
Home run (Kalshi)
Fire $3 →
STRONG · +3.5pp
Aaron Judge
Home run (Kalshi)
Fire $3 →
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $11 total stake · 3 fires
Real Money Plan — Kalshi + PrizePicks (CA-legal)
SportPickMarketSideTierEdgeStakeMax PayoutFire
MLBElly De La Cruz
Home run (Kalshi)Will hit a home runELITE+7.3pp$5$38.46Fire on Kalshi →
MLBBryce Harper
Home run (Kalshi)Will hit a home runSTRONG+3.5pp$3$18.75Fire on Kalshi →
MLBAaron Judge
Home run (Kalshi)Will hit a home runSTRONG+3.5pp$3$11.11Fire on Kalshi →
TOTAL (3 fires)$11$68.32

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

PickCurrentOpenMoveRaw EdgeVig-Adj EdgePrice Move
Elly De La Cruz13¢13¢+0.0pp+7.3pp+9.3pp⚪ flat
Bryce Harper15¢14¢-1.0pp+3.5pp+4.3pp🟠 pricier 1-2¢
Aaron Judge27¢27¢+0.0pp+3.5pp+1.0pp⚪ flat
Open vs current Kalshi YES-ask. Vig-Adj Edge applies favorite-longshot bias correction. Price Move: 🟢 cheaper = better entry now · 🔴 pricier = worse entry. Threshold ±3¢ big move, ±1¢ small move. 3 tracked tickers.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks16 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

PlayerStat / variantLineL10 hit%Edge vs PPGame
Brice Turang MIL
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs
Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppSTL @ MIL
Oneil Cruz PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppCHC @ PIT
Adolis García PHIHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSD @ PHI
Alec Burleson STL
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppMIL @ STL
Ian Happ CHCHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppPIT @ CHC
Jake Bauers MILTotal Bases 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSTL @ MIL
Junior Caminero TBHits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppBAL @ TB
Marcell Ozuna PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCHC @ PIT
Spencer Horwitz PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCHC @ PIT
Spencer Steer CIN
also locks: Hits, Total Bases
Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppNYM @ CIN
Trea Turner PHIHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSD @ PHI
Xavier Edwards MIAHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppTOR @ MIA
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~58% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$10.52/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Ketel Marte · Total Bases 90%🔴 Spencer Steer · Total Bases 80%🔴 Keibert Ruiz · Total Bases 80%🟢 Brice Turang · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Oneil Cruz · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →
🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

PlayerStat / variantLineEst hit%Edge vs PPGame
Ketel Marte AZTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.590% (9/10)+50.0ppSF @ AZ
Elly De La Cruz CINTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ CIN
Jake Bauers MILHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppSTL @ MIL
Elly De La Cruz CINHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ CIN
Blake Dunn CINTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ CIN
Kyle Schwarber PHITotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppSD @ PHI
Ryan Kreidler MINTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCWS @ MIN
Spencer Steer CINTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.580% (8/10)+40.0ppNYM @ CIN
Corbin Carroll AZTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.580% (8/10)+40.0ppSF @ AZ
Keibert Ruiz WSHTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.580% (8/10)+40.0ppCLE @ WSH
Joe Mack MIATotal Bases 🔴 DEMON0.560% (6/10)+20.0ppTOR @ MIA
Juan Soto NYMTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppCIN @ NYM
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Ketel Marte · Total BasesElly De La Cruz · Total BasesJake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIsKyle Schwarber · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →
🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 785 🔴 Demons / 205 🟢 Goblins / 28 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#PlayerLineSidePA14L10ScoreWhy
1Brice Turang
MIL
1.5MORE523/10 30%70.1Great bat 🔥 · facing BP-arm Liberatore (5.67 recent ERA)
2Ian Happ
CHC
1.5MORE433/10 30%69.8Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Mlodzinski (4.66 ERA)
3Michael Busch🔥 HOT
CHC
1.5MORE534/10 40%69.6Solid bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Mlodzinski (4
4Jackson Chourio
MIL
1.5MORE564/10 40%69.6Below-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Liberatore (5.67 recent ERA)
5Ben Rice
NYY
0.5MORE526/10 60%68.1Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Wacha (ace, 3.87 ERA)
6Paul Goldschmidt
NYY
1.5MORE353/10 30%66.7Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Wacha (ace, 3.87 ERA)
7William Contreras
MIL
1.5MORE494/10 40%65.3Solid bat · facing BP-arm Liberatore (5.67 recent ERA)
8Junior Caminero
TB
1.5MORE516/10 60%64.6Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Bradish
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Brice TurangTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%STL @ MIL
2Michael BuschTotal Bases1.5MORE4/10 40%PIT @ CHC
3Ben RiceTotal Bases0.5MORE6/10 60%KC @ NYY
Why:
  • 3 separate games (STL @ MIL / PIT @ CHC / KC @ NYY) → zero same-game correlation
  • All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
  • All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
  • All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.54x (EV $-0.46/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
3/37%3.0x
2/332%1.0x
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Brice TurangTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%STL @ MIL
2Michael BuschTotal Bases1.5MORE4/10 40%PIT @ CHC
3Ben RiceTotal Bases0.5MORE6/10 60%KC @ NYY
4Junior CamineroTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%BAL @ TB
Why:
  • Add Junior Caminero at BAL @ TB
  • 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
  • Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.59x (EV $-0.41/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
4/44%6.0x
3/422%1.5x
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from STL @ MIL — bigger upside, bigger variance.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Brice TurangTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%STL @ MIL
2Jackson ChourioTotal Bases1.5MORE4/10 40%STL @ MIL
3William ContrerasTotal Bases1.5MORE4/10 40%STL @ MIL
Why:
  • 3 batters from STL @ MIL → correlated
  • If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
  • If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 37% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.40x (EV $-0.60/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
3/35%3.0x
2/326%1.0x
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Andrew Vaughn, Aaron Judge, Vinnie Pasquantino, Carter Jensen, Isaac Collins

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2

Slate today3 locked
ELITE / STRONG1 / 2
7-day paper P&L$-47.41 (137 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today1 locked
ELITE / STRONG1 / 0
7-day paper P&L$-8.76 (6 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+2.88 (4 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-25 09:12:37 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-25.json