Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-70.85. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | +$4.50 | 8W / 1L | 1 live | 🔥 WINNING |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | +$4.50 | 8W / 1L | 12 live | 89% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
1 ranked
ELITE · +13.9pp
Nice vs Saint-Etienne
2026-05-29 Nice v Saint Etienne · Match winner
$0
→ $0.00
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Ewing NYM | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ NYM |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | HOU @ MIL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ PIT |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Alex Bregman CHC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ CHC |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ ATL |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ CIN |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ TEX |
| Harrison Bader SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ SF |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Junior Caminero TB also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ TB |
| Owen Caissie MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ MIA |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Willson Contreras · Total Bases 80%🔴 Corbin Carroll · Total Bases 70%🔴 Shohei Ohtani · Total Bases 70%🟢 A.J. Ewing · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Brice Turang · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ AZ |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Shohei Ohtani LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ LAD |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BOS @ CLE |
| Juan Soto NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ LAD |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ CWS |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ PIT |
| Jonathan Aranda TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAA @ TB |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATH @ NYY |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ PIT |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Corbin Carroll · Total BasesWillson Contreras · Total BasesShohei Ohtani · Total BasesTravis Bazzana · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 970 🔴 Demons / 242 🟢 Goblins / 27 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 8/10 80% | 77.9 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cecconi (4.71 ERA) |
| 2 | Michael Harris II🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 5/10 50% | 75.3 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Paddack |
| 3 | Nathaniel Lowe CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 5/10 50% | 73.2 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing average Holmes |
| 4 | Mike Trout LAA | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 72.9 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Martinez |
| 5 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 72.8 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing average Holmes |
| 6 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 4/10 40% | 72.0 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing average Holmes |
| 7 | Kyle Manzardo🔥 HOT CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 4/10 40% | 71.3 | Average bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Samaniego ( |
| 8 | Juan Soto🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 7/10 70% | 71.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (15% HR rate) · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Meyer (ace |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 2 | Mike Trout | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TB @ LAA |
| 3 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | ATL @ CIN |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CIN @ ATL / TB @ LAA / ATL @ CIN) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.56x (EV $-0.44/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 2 | Mike Trout | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TB @ LAA |
| 3 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | ATL @ CIN |
| 4 | Casey Schmitt | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | COL @ SF |
Why:
- Add Casey Schmitt at COL @ SF
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 52% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.79x (EV $-0.21/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 6% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 27% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from ATL @ CIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Lowe | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | ATL @ CIN |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | ATL @ CIN |
| 3 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | ATL @ CIN |
Why:
- 3 batters from ATL @ CIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.56x (EV $-0.44/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Matt Olson, JJ Bleday, Blake Dunn, Spencer Steer, Oneil Cruz, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, Kazuma Okamoto
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 11 Demons + 12 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMKeibert Ruiz Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ WSH
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ BOS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMKeibert Ruiz Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ WSH
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ BOS
🟢 GOBBrice Turang Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · HOU @ MIL
🟢 GOBA.J. Ewing Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIA @ NYM
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMKeibert Ruiz Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ WSH
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ BOS
🔴 DEMTravis Bazzana Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BOS @ CLE
🟢 GOBBrice Turang Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · HOU @ MIL
🟢 GOBA.J. Ewing Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIA @ NYM
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d10 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-30T05:37.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 67% | 45 | $+13.50 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴MLB-Walks Allowed | 44% | 9 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 29% (63 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Walks Allowed — 44% (9 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-2812 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA @ TB | Walbert Ureña vs Nick Martinez | 0.726 | 48% | 2.07x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ NYM | Max Meyer vs Freddy Peralta | 0.75 | 47% | 2.12x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ HOU | Coleman Crow vs Kai-Wei Teng | 0.775 | 46% | 2.17x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ LAD | Zack Wheeler vs Justin Wrobleski | 0.849 | 43% | 2.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ TEX | Stephen Kolek vs MacKenzie Gore | 0.873 | 42% | 2.39x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ CLE | Tyler Samaniego vs Slade Cecconi | 0.978 | 38% | 2.66x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ CIN | Grant Holmes vs Chris Paddack | 1.441 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ COL | Logan Webb vs Michael Lorenzen | 1.272 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ BAL | TBD vs Trevor Rogers | 1.236 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ ATH | Carlos Rodón vs Luis Severino | 1.177 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | Shota Imanaga vs Andre Pallante | 1.166 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ WSH | Lucas Giolito vs Paxton Schultz | 1.092 | 66% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (8 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
8 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Trevor Rogers ⚪ Under 1.5 walks allowed | MLB prop · Walks Allowed (PrizePicks) | -62.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Carlos Rodón ⚪ Under 6.0 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | -2.3pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Luis Severino ⚪ Under 5.5 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | -1.8pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Zac Gallen ⚪ Under 5.0 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | -1.3pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Erick Fedde ⚪ Under 3.5 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | -1.3pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Chris Paddack ⚪ Under 3.5 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | -1.1pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Justin Wrobleski ⚪ Over 4.5 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | +1.1pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | MacKenzie Gore ⚪ Under 5.5 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | -1.0pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-29 22:37:49 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-29.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-29.json