Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-80.19. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 35 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BOS @ PIT |
| Brett Bateman TOR also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (8/8) | +40pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Bryson Stott PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ PHI |
| Carson Benge NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Dylan Crews WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ AZ |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | AZ @ ATL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ PIT |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Luke Keaschall MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ MIN |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Eduardo Valencia · Total Bases 80%🔴 Andrés Giménez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Total Bases 80%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Bryson Stott · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ BOS |
| Eduardo Valencia DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CWS @ DET |
| James McCann AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ AZ |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Spencer Torkelson DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CWS @ DET |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ SD |
| Royce Lewis MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ MIN |
| Hunter Feduccia LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ LAD |
| Hunter Feduccia LAD | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ LAD |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ BOS |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Brett Bateman TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | NYY @ TOR |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Andruw Monasterio · Hits+Runs+RBIsEduardo Valencia · Total BasesJames McCann · Hits+Runs+RBIsAndrés Giménez · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1155 🔴 Demons / 252 🟢 Goblins / 42 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac Caglianone🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 5/10 50% | 81.3 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Johnson (5.5 |
| 2 | Griffin Conine MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 3/10 30% | 79.3 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.18 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Alec Burleson🔥 HOT STL | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 74.6 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cabrera (4. |
| 4 | Matt Olson🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 73.6 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Soroka |
| 5 | Francisco Alvarez NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 4/10 40% | 73.6 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Irvin (5.36 ERA) |
| 6 | Mike Trout LAA | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 5/10 50% | 72.0 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Cameron |
| 7 | John Rave KC | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 0/10 0% | 70.5 | Average bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Johnson (5.54 recent ERA) |
| 8 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 65 | 5/10 50% | 70.3 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing average Kremer |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac Caglianone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | LAA @ KC |
| 2 | Griffin Conine | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CIN @ MIA |
| 3 | Alec Burleson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ STL |
Why:
- 3 separate games (LAA @ KC / CIN @ MIA / CHC @ STL) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.55x (EV $-0.45/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac Caglianone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | LAA @ KC |
| 2 | Griffin Conine | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CIN @ MIA |
| 3 | Alec Burleson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ STL |
| 4 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | AZ @ ATL |
Why:
- Add Matt Olson at AZ @ ATL
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.52x (EV $-0.48/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 20% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Gabriel Moreno, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, Mauricio Dubón, Bryan Reynolds, Esmerlyn Valdez, Andruw Monasterio, Ben Rice
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 10 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMEduardo Valencia Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ DET
🔴 DEMAndrés Giménez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ TOR
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMEduardo Valencia Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ DET
🔴 DEMAndrés Giménez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ TOR
🟢 GOBGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · ATL @ AZ
🟢 GOBBrandon Lowe Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BOS @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
51.2% combined
EV $+3.61–$+8.22/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMEduardo Valencia Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ DET
🔴 DEMAndrés Giménez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ TOR
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · ATL @ AZ
🟢 GOBBrandon Lowe Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BOS @ PIT
🟢 GOBCarson Benge Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ NYM
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-16T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 82% | 74 | $+4.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 73 | $+2.50 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 56% | 43 | $+0.15 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 47% | 601 | $-4.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 42% | 273 | $-41.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 31% | 479 | $-17.90 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 31% (479 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 42% (273 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 47% (601 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 56% (43 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-1530 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TOR | Ryan Weathers vs Dylan Cease | 0.769 | 46% | 2.16x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ LAD | Logan Henderson vs Tarik Skubal | 0.814 | 44% | 2.26x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ CLE | Casey Mize vs Tanner Bibee | 0.953 | 38% | 2.59x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ ATL | Michael Soroka vs Bryce Elder | 0.982 | 37% | 2.67x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ HOU | Bryan Woo vs Hunter Brown | 0.992 | 37% | 2.7x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ DET | Sean Burke vs Drew Anderson | 0.993 | 37% | 2.7x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ MIN | Andrew Painter vs Dean Kremer | 1.506 | 78% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BAL @ TB | Trevor Rogers vs Freddy Peralta | 1.33 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ LAA | Noah Cameron vs Ryan Johnson | 1.284 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ CHC | Hunter Dobbins vs Edward Cabrera | 1.254 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ NYM | Jake Irvin vs Christian Scott | 1.241 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BOS @ PIT | Patrick Sandoval vs Lake Bachar | 1.078 | 66% | 1.52x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-16 06:35:44 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-16.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-16.json