Money Slate · 2026-07-31

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-9.00. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	-$1.00	4W / 5L	0 live	·
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	$0.00	0W / 0L	12 live	(early)
PORTFOLIO	-$1.00	4W / 5L	22 live	44% hit

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks15 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Andy Pages LAD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	BOS @ LAD
James Wood WSH	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	ATL @ WSH
Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	TEX @ HOU
Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Total Bases, Hits	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CIN @ PIT
Cal Raleigh SEA	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIN @ SEA
Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Total Bases, Hits	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	CLE @ AZ
Heriberto Hernández MIA	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	NYM @ MIA
Hunter Goodman COL	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	KC @ COL
Ian Happ CHC	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	NYY @ CHC
Jake Mangum PIT also locks: Hits	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	CIN @ PIT
Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	SEA @ MIN
Ty France SD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	SF @ SD

Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Nick Gonzales · Total Bases 70%🔴 Miguel Amaya · Hits 70%🟢 Andy Pages · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 James Wood · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Gabriel Moreno AZ	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	80% (8/10)	+40.0pp	CLE @ AZ
Royce Lewis MIN	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SEA @ MIN
Nick Gonzales PIT	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	CIN @ PIT
Miguel Amaya CHC	Hits 🔴 DEMON	0.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	NYY @ CHC
Miguel Amaya CHC	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	0.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	NYY @ CHC
Luis Rengifo SD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	SF @ SD
Andruw Monasterio BOS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	LAD @ BOS
Ty France SD	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SF @ SD
Cooper Pratt MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	LAA @ MIL
Ryan Jeffers MIN	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SEA @ MIN
Josh Naylor SEA	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	MIN @ SEA
Nick Gonzales PIT	Hits 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	CIN @ PIT

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIsRoyce Lewis · Hits+Runs+RBIsNick Gonzales · Total BasesMiguel Amaya · Hits

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 1160 🔴 Demons / 254 🟢 Goblins / 57 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC	1.5	MORE	62	6/10 60%	69.1	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA)
2	Ben Rice NYY	1.5	MORE	58	4/10 40%	66.3	Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Imanaga (ace, 3.64 ERA)
3	Michael Conforto CHC	1.5	MORE	30	3/10 30%	61.5	Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA)
4	Michael Busch CHC	1.5	MORE	64	4/10 40%	60.1	Average bat · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA)
5	Nico Hoerner🔥 HOT CHC	1.5	MORE	55	4/10 40%	58.2	Average bat · on hot streak (2% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA)
6	Trent Grisham NYY	1.5	MORE	53	1/10 10%	56.9	Solid bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Imanaga (ace, 3.64 ERA)
7	Alex Bregman🔥 HOT CHC	1.5	MORE	56	6/10 60%	55.4	Below-avg bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA)
8	Jasson Domínguez NYY	1.5	MORE	56	5/10 50%	40.9	Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Imanaga (ace, 3.64 ERA)

High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)

All 4 from NYY @ CHC — bigger upside, bigger variance.

#	Player	Stat	Line	Side	L10	Game
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	6/10 60%	NYY @ CHC
2	Michael Conforto	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	3/10 30%	NYY @ CHC
3	Michael Busch	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	4/10 40%	NYY @ CHC
4	Nico Hoerner	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	4/10 40%	NYY @ CHC

Why:

4 batters from NYY @ CHC → correlated
If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together

📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)

Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 42% · need 55.0% per leg

Expected payout: 0.43x (EV $-0.57/$1)

Hit	P(k)	Pays
4/4	3%	6.0x
3/4	17%	1.5x

Auto-faded (caught by gates):

Ian Happ, Paul Goldschmidt, José Caballero, Dansby Swanson

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-01T05:34.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	80%	104	$+6.20
🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks	67%	104	$+3.60
🟡UNKNOWN	50%	44	$-6.44
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	48%	672	$-3.00
🔴MLB-Total Bases	40%	178	$-36.00
🔴Tennis-Total Games	34%	685	$-21.70

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (685 picks)
🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (178 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (672 picks)
🔴 UNKNOWN — 50% (44 picks)

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays4 trusted

Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.

Pitcher	Stat	Side	Proj	Edge	Signal	Why
Bryce Eldervs WSH	Pitches Thrown	MORE 84.5	95.0	+10.5pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Foster Griffinvs ATL	Earned Runs Allowed	MORE 2.5	5.7	+3.2pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 108 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Bryce Eldervs WSH	Earned Runs Allowed	MORE 2.5	5.0	+2.5pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Brandon Youngvs PHI	Earned Runs Allowed	MORE 2.5	4.5	+2.0pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-3020 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	1/1	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
STL @ TOR	Kyle Leahy vs Dylan Cease	0.766	46%	2.15x	⚡ Kalshi NO
BOS @ LAD	Ranger Suarez vs Edgardo Henriquez	0.876	42%	2.4x	⚡ Kalshi NO
SF @ SD	Carson Whisenhunt vs Bradgley Rodriguez	0.963	38%	2.62x	⚡ Kalshi NO
TEX @ HOU	Nathan Eovaldi vs Hunter Brown	1.014	36%	2.76x	⚡ Kalshi NO
PHI @ BAL	TBD vs Brandon Young	1.031	36%	2.8x	⚡ Kalshi NO
CWS @ TB	Erick Fedde vs Nick Martinez	1.051	35%	2.86x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
DET @ ATH	TBD vs Jeffrey Springs	1.284	72%	1.38x	⚡ Kalshi YES
MIL @ LAA	Shane Drohan vs Ryan Johnson	1.275	72%	1.39x	⚡ Kalshi YES
PIT @ CIN	Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene	1.273	72%	1.39x	⚡ Kalshi YES
MIA @ NYM	Janson Junk vs Freddy Peralta	1.25	71%	1.4x	⚡ Kalshi YES
NYY @ CHC	Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga	1.235	71%	1.41x	⚡ Kalshi YES
AZ @ CLE	Mitch Bratt vs Tanner Bibee	1.229	71%	1.41x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

📋 Today's Results (4 locked)

Today's Results — Settled + Live

4 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.

Sport	Pick	Market	Edge	State
MLB	Dane Myers ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+95.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Carter Jensen ⚪ Over 1.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+84.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Evan Carter ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+83.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Joe Mack ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+1.1pp	✅ WON

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-9.00 (43 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-07-31 22:36:16 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-31.json