Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+116.12. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 32 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks13 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ BOS |
| Nick Sogard BOS also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | MIN @ BOS |
| Spencer Steer CIN also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ CIN |
| Adolis García PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ PHI |
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ STL |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ CWS |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ HOU |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ PIT |
| Bobby Witt Jr. KC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SEA @ KC |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | STL @ CIN |
| Konnor Griffin PIT also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ PIT |
| Trea Turner PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ PHI |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~40% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.06/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Spencer Steer · Total Bases 80%🔴 Keibert Ruiz · Total Bases 80%🔴 Ryan Kreidler · Total Bases 70%🟢 Jarren Duran · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Adolis García · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Kreidler MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BOS @ MIN |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ CLE |
| Wilyer Abreu BOS | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ BOS |
| JJ Bleday CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | STL @ CIN |
| Nick Sogard BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | MIN @ BOS |
| Ryan Kreidler MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BOS @ MIN |
| Spencer Steer CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | STL @ CIN |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ PIT |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ BOS |
| Sam Antonacci CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SF @ CWS |
| JJ Bleday CIN | RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ CIN |
| A.J. Ewing NYM | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Ryan Kreidler · Total BasesTravis Bazzana · SinglesWilyer Abreu · SinglesJJ Bleday · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 742 🔴 Demons / 208 🟢 Goblins / 30 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 7/10 70% | 82.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Leahy (6.17 recent ER |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas🔥 HOT CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 4/10 40% | 82.1 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Houser (5.83 |
| 3 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 81.3 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Leahy (6.17 recent |
| 4 | Spencer Steer CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 8/10 80% | 81.1 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Leahy (6.17 recent ER |
| 5 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 2/10 20% | 80.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Rea (5.32 ERA) |
| 6 | Michael Harris II ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 4/10 40% | 79.3 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Irvin (5.61 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 5/10 50% | 78.8 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Houser (5.83 recent ERA) |
| 8 | Kyle Schwarber🔥 HOT PHI | 0.5 | MORE | 42 | 7/10 70% | 78.5 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (17% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Cecconi |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CHC @ HOU |
| 2 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | WSH @ ATL |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SF @ CWS |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CHC @ HOU / WSH @ ATL / SF @ CWS) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 37% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.38x (EV $-0.62/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 4% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 26% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CHC @ HOU |
| 2 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | WSH @ ATL |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SF @ CWS |
| 4 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | MIA @ NYM |
Why:
- Add Juan Soto at MIA @ NYM
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.46x (EV $-0.54/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 3% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 19% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from STL @ CIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | STL @ CIN |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | STL @ CIN |
| 3 | Spencer Steer | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | STL @ CIN |
Why:
- 3 batters from STL @ CIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 67% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.31x (EV +$0.31/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 28% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 47% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, Bryan Reynolds, Drew Gilbert, Adolis García, Brandon Marsh
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 10 Demons + 8 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · STL @ CIN
🔴 DEMKeibert Ruiz Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · ATL @ WSH
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
57.6% combined
EV $+2.46–$+5.22/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · STL @ CIN
🔴 DEMKeibert Ruiz Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · ATL @ WSH
🟢 GOBNick Sogard Hits MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · MIN @ BOS
🟢 GOBJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CHC @ HOU
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
40.3% combined
EV $+2.63–$+6.26/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · STL @ CIN
🔴 DEMKeibert Ruiz Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · ATL @ WSH
🔴 DEMRyan Kreidler Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BOS @ MIN
🟢 GOBNick Sogard Hits MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · MIN @ BOS
🟢 GOBJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CHC @ HOU
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-23T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢OTHER-btts_no | 62% | 8 | $+4.49 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 12 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 14% | 29 | $-77.93 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 14% (29 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 50% (12 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 50% (10 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 58% (19 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays3 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbinvs PIT | Pitches Thrown | LESS 83.5 | 75.0 | -8.5pp | ⛔ LOW PITCH CAP | Short-leash — max 86 pitches across last 3 starts |
| Slade Cecconivs PHI | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 26.639 | +4.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Taj Bradleyvs BOS | Pitching Outs | MORE 13.5 | 15.6 | +2.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 114 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ BOS | Taj Bradley vs Jovani Morán | 0.698 | 50% | 2.01x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ LAA | Nathan Eovaldi vs Walbert Ureña | 0.742 | 48% | 2.1x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ MIA | Freddy Peralta vs Max Meyer | 0.772 | 46% | 2.16x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ KC | George Kirby vs Stephen Kolek | 0.91 | 40% | 2.48x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PIT @ TOR | Paul Skenes vs Patrick Corbin | 0.965 | 38% | 2.63x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ NYY | Drew Rasmussen vs Ryan Weathers | 0.988 | 37% | 2.69x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ ATL | Jake Irvin vs Grant Holmes | 1.596 | 80% | 1.25x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ MIL | Roki Sasaki vs Robert Gasser | 1.581 | 79% | 1.26x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ AZ | Michael Lorenzen vs Zac Gallen | 1.352 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ CIN | Andre Pallante vs Chris Paddack | 1.281 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ BAL | Framber Valdez vs Brandon Young | 1.205 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ CIN | Kyle Leahy vs Chase Petty | 1.197 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (2 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
0 WON · 0 LOST · 2 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Elly De La Cruz Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | +5.5pp | 🟡 LIVE |
| MLB | Aaron Judge Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | +0.5pp | 🟡 LIVE |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-23 10:44:29 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-23.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-23.json