Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+2.45. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 20 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks14 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ SEA |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | COL @ CHC |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BOS @ TOR |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | DET @ HOU |
| Zack Gelof ATH also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PIT @ ATH |
| Chase Meidroth CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ CWS |
| Jacob Wilson ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ ATH |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ CHC |
| Rafael Devers SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SF |
| Troy Johnston COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ COL |
| Samad Taylor SD also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 88% (7/8) | +28pp | STL @ SD |
| Jung Hoo Lee SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATL @ SF |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~58% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$10.52/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Paul Goldschmidt · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%🔴 Braden Montgomery · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Alec Burleson · Total Bases 80%🟢 Cal Raleigh · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Ian Happ · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Montgomery CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | NYY @ CWS |
| Samad Taylor SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 75% (6/8) | +35.0pp | STL @ SD |
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Shohei Ohtani LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ LAD |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (6/9) | +26.7pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ CWS |
| Taylor Ward BAL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ BAL |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | KC @ WSH |
| Alec Burleson STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ STL |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BOS @ TOR |
| Kody Clemens MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TEX @ MIN |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ BAL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Braden Montgomery · Hits+Runs+RBIsSamad Taylor · Hits+Runs+RBIsPaul Goldschmidt · Hits+Runs+RBIsShohei Ohtani · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1148 🔴 Demons / 247 🟢 Goblins / 36 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 80.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Singer (5.80 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Michael Harris II ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 6/10 60% | 78.0 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Houser (5.44 ERA) |
| 3 | Matt Olson ATL | 0.5 | MORE | 47 | 8/10 80% | 76.9 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Houser (5.44 ERA) |
| 4 | Nick Kurtz🔥 HOT ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 6/10 60% | 75.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 5 | Spencer Steer🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 2/10 20% | 74.7 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 6 | Shohei Ohtani🔥 HOT LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 7/10 70% | 74.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 7 | Jackson Chourio🔥 HOT MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 7/10 70% | 74.0 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Cecconi |
| 8 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 6/10 60% | 73.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Wacha |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ NYM |
| 2 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | PIT @ ATH |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | TB @ LAD |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CIN @ NYM / PIT @ ATH / TB @ LAD) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 57% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.94x (EV $-0.06/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 17% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 44% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ NYM |
| 2 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | PIT @ ATH |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | TB @ LAD |
| 4 | Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | CLE @ MIL |
Why:
- Add Jackson Chourio at CLE @ MIL
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 60% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.24x (EV +$0.24/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 12% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 36% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Xavier Edwards, Liam Hicks, Trea Turner, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Jacob Young
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 10 Demons + 11 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+1.16–$+2.60/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CWS @ NYY
🔴 DEMBraden Montgomery Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · NYY @ CWS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+3.32–$+6.78/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CWS @ NYY
🔴 DEMBraden Montgomery Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · NYY @ CWS
🟢 GOBZack Gelof Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PIT @ ATH
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BOS @ TOR
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
57.6% combined
EV $+4.18–$+9.37/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CWS @ NYY
🔴 DEMBraden Montgomery Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · NYY @ CWS
🔴 DEMAlec Burleson Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ STL
🟢 GOBZack Gelof Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PIT @ ATH
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BOS @ TOR
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d12 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-16T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 64% | 14 | $+5.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 64% | 64 | $+16.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 60% | 30 | $+6.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 213 | $+1.60 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 52% | 258 | $+0.80 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 50% | 1402 | $-1.20 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 49% | 1278 | $-1.70 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 14% (7 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 25% (8 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 36% (107 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 43% (116 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 4 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Colevs CWS | Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS 31.5 | 25.865 | -5.6pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-22 (25d ago), only 4 starts |
| Brady Singervs NYM | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 26.75 | +4.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-06-1520 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ BOS | Dylan Cease vs Payton Tolle | 0.673 | 51% | 1.96x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ LAD | Drew Rasmussen vs Justin Wrobleski | 0.818 | 44% | 2.27x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ NYY | Davis Martin vs Gerrit Cole | 0.82 | 44% | 2.27x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ SEA | Brandon Young vs Logan Gilbert | 0.916 | 40% | 2.5x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ PHI | Tyler Phillips vs Jesús Luzardo | 0.961 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ STL | Michael King vs Andre Pallante | 0.96 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ ATH | Mitch Keller vs Jack Perkins | 1.585 | 80% | 1.26x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CLE @ MIL | Slade Cecconi vs Robert Gasser | 1.455 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ CHC | Ryan Feltner vs Edward Cabrera | 1.43 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYM @ CIN | Kodai Senga vs Brady Singer | 1.378 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ ATL | Adrian Houser vs Grant Holmes | 1.365 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ AZ | Reid Detmers vs Merrill Kelly | 1.281 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-16 10:45:10 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-16.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-16.json