Money Slate · 2026-10-04

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-8.00. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	$0.00	0W / 0L	4 live	(early)
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	$0.00	0W / 0L	12 live	(early)
PORTFOLIO	$0.00	0W / 0L	26 live	—

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks13 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIL @ SD
Jackson Chourio MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	SD @ MIL
Jake Cronenworth SD	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIL @ SD
Sam Antonacci CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	CLE @ CWS
Teoscar Hernández LAD also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Hits	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	ATL @ LAD
William Contreras MIL also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	SD @ MIL
Ben Rice NYY	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	TB @ NYY
Brice Turang MIL also locks: Hits	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	SD @ MIL
Chase Meidroth CWS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	CLE @ CWS
Dustin Harris SD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	MIL @ SD
Jackson Merrill SD	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	MIL @ SD
Joey Ortiz MIL also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	SD @ MIL

Suggested 4-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 1 Green Lock insurance. ~31% combined hit prob × ~12x = EV +$2.70/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Teoscar Hernández · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Joey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Sam Antonacci · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Fernando Tatis Jr. · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Teoscar Hernández LAD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	ATL @ LAD
Jackson Merrill SD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIL @ SD
Richie Palacios TB	Hits 🔴 DEMON	0.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYY @ TB
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIL @ SD
Joey Ortiz MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	SD @ MIL
Jake Bauers MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SD @ MIL
Spencer Jones NYY	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	TB @ NYY
George Lombard Jr. NYY	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	TB @ NYY
Sam Antonacci CWS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	CLE @ CWS
Jackson Chourio MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SD @ MIL
Kyle Tucker LAD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	ATL @ LAD
Will Smith LAD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	ATL @ LAD

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Teoscar Hernández · Hits+Runs+RBIsJackson Merrill · Hits+Runs+RBIsRichie Palacios · HitsJoey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIs

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 307 🔴 Demons / 49 🟢 Goblins / 13 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Ben Rice NYY	1.5	MORE	34	4/10 40%	65.9	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard
2	Munetaka Murakami CWS	1.5	MORE	36	5/10 50%	63.4	Solid bat · crushing the ball
3	Matt Olson ATL	1.5	MORE	31	2/10 20%	62.9	Solid bat · hitting it hard
4	Brice Turang🔥 HOT MIL	1.5	MORE	30	4/10 40%	61.0	Solid bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · facing average King
5	Drake Baldwin ATL	1.5	MORE	33	4/10 40%	60.7	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard
6	Miguel Vargas CWS	1.5	MORE	33	2/10 20%	60.6	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard
7	Junior Caminero TB	1.5	MORE	33	3/10 30%	60.5	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard
8	Teoscar Hernández LAD	1.5	MORE	31	6/10 60%	55.5	Average bat · hitting it hard

Auto-faded (caught by gates):

Ty France, Garrett Mitchell, Jake Bauers, Kyle Tucker, Ozzie Albies, José Ramírez, Colson Montgomery, Travis Bazzana

🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 4 Demons + 6 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST

2-pick

3.0–5.0xpayout range

49.0% combined

EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1

Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.

🔴 DEMTeoscar Hernández Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · ATL @ LAD

🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ MIL

$5 → $15–$25

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚖️ BALANCED

4-pick

6.0–10.8xpayout range

39.7% combined

EV $+1.38–$+3.29/$1

2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.

🔴 DEMTeoscar Hernández Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · ATL @ LAD

🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ MIL

🟢 GOBFernando Tatis Jr. Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ SD

🟢 GOBSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · CLE @ CWS

$5 → $30–$54

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

🚀 HUNGRY

5-pick

9.0–18.0xpayout range

27.8% combined

EV $+1.50–$+4.00/$1

Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.

🔴 DEMTeoscar Hernández Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · ATL @ LAD

🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ MIL

🔴 DEMSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS

🟢 GOBFernando Tatis Jr. Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ SD

🟢 GOBWilliam Contreras Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · SD @ MIL

$5 → $45–$90

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-04T05:30.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks	83%	18	$+1.20
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	79%	34	$+2.00
🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks	57%	7	$+1.50
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	48%	114	$-0.40
🔴UNKNOWN	45%	22	$-2.27
🔴Tennis-Total Games	42%	238	$-3.80
🔴MLB-Total Bases	40%	399	$-81.00

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (399 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 42% (238 picks)
🔴 UNKNOWN — 45% (22 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (114 picks)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-10-038 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅NORMAL / SKIP	1/1	100%
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	1/1	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
SD @ MIL	Michael King vs Logan Henderson	0.895	41%	2.45x	⚡ Kalshi NO
ATL @ LAD	TBD vs Blake Snell	1.012	36%	2.75x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
ATL @ LAD	TBD vs Blake Snell	1.012	64%	1.57x	⚡ Kalshi YES
SD @ MIL	Michael King vs Logan Henderson	0.895	59%	1.69x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-8.00 (44 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-10-04 07:12:50 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-04.json