Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-15.36. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 5 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 15 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ SEA |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Hits | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ HOU |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ SEA |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ SF |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | WSH @ COL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Michael Busch · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Brett Baty · Hits 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ MIL |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Brett Baty NYM | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ NYM |
| Brett Baty NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ NYM |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ CHC |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SF @ KC |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ MIL |
| Michael Busch CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | DET @ CHC |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SF @ KC |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ NYM |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ CHC |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsRyan Jeffers · Total BasesBrett Baty · HitsChase DeLauter · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1168 🔴 Demons / 252 🟢 Goblins / 32 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Eldridge🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 75.3 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 re |
| 2 | Heliot Ramos SF | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 3/10 30% | 73.7 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 6/10 60% | 70.3 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Chandler |
| 4 | Casey Schmitt SF | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 68.9 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Wilyer Abreu🔥 HOT BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 5/10 50% | 64.3 | Solid bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Bradish (ace, |
| 6 | Rafael Devers SF | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 3/10 30% | 63.5 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Esmerlyn Valdez🔥 HOT PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 8/10 80% | 62.1 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (18% HR rate) · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Fried (a |
| 8 | Willy Adames🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 62.0 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 recent ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from KC @ SF — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Eldridge | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | KC @ SF |
| 2 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | KC @ SF |
| 3 | Casey Schmitt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ SF |
| 4 | Rafael Devers | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | KC @ SF |
Why:
- 4 batters from KC @ SF → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 38% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.30x (EV $-0.70/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 13% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Brandon Lowe, Cody Bellinger, Ryan O'Hearn, Romy Gonzalez, Michael Massey, Drew Gilbert, Jackson Chourio, Carson Benge
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 4 Demons + 4 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMBrett Baty Hits MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ NYM
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
39.7% combined
EV $+1.38–$+3.29/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMBrett Baty Hits MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ NYM
⚪ STAEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ PIT
🟢 GOBHeliot Ramos Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · KC @ SF
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
27.8% combined
EV $+1.50–$+4.00/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMBrett Baty Hits MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ NYM
🔴 DEMIsaac Collins Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ KC
⚪ STAEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ PIT
🟢 GOBHeliot Ramos Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · KC @ SF
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-22T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 167 | $+6.70 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 55% | 156 | $+1.60 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 53% | 90 | $+11.14 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 931 | $-15.10 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1206 | $-29.80 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 37% | 229 | $-59.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 37% (229 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1206 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (931 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 53% (90 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays5 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconivs MIN | Pitches Thrown | MORE 86.5 | 95.0 | +8.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Slade Cecconivs MIN | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 28.047 | +5.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Aaron Nolavs LAD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 29.851 | +5.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Eric Lauervs PHI | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 19.5 | 23.468 | +4.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Eric Lauervs PHI | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ MIL | Christian Scott vs Logan Henderson | 0.758 | 47% | 2.13x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ BOS | Dean Kremer vs Jake Bennett | 0.922 | 40% | 2.52x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ ATL | Michael King vs Martín Pérez | 0.926 | 40% | 2.52x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ TEX | Anthony Kay vs Tyler Alexander | 0.936 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ TOR | Griffin Jax vs Braydon Fisher | 0.97 | 38% | 2.64x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ BOS | Kyle Bradish vs TBD | 1.02 | 36% | 2.77x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ PHI | Eric Lauer vs Aaron Nola | 1.495 | 78% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ NYY | Mitch Keller vs Gerrit Cole | 1.47 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ AZ | Gage Jump vs Merrill Kelly | 1.303 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CLE | Bailey Ober vs Slade Cecconi | 1.289 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ NYY | Bubba Chandler vs Max Fried | 1.242 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ COL | Cade Cavalli vs Gabriel Hughes | 1.174 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-22 09:13:29 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-22.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-22.json