| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 7 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 29 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks10 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio MIL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ MIL |
| Ty France SD also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ SD |
| Bryce Eldridge SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SF |
| Christian Yelich MIL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SF @ MIL |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SF |
| Jake Cronenworth SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | COL @ SD |
| Luis Arraez SF also locks: Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SF |
| Luis Rengifo SD also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | COL @ SD |
| Manny Machado SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | COL @ SD |
| Willy Adames SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SF |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons7 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Rengifo SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | COL @ SD |
| Ty France SD | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | COL @ SD |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | COL @ SD |
| Ty France SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | COL @ SD |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SF @ MIL |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | COL @ SD |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | COL @ SD |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 745 🔴 Demons / 176 🟢 Goblins / 24 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brice Turang MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 4/10 40% | 57.5 | Solid bat · facing average Webb |
| 2 | Cooper Pratt🔥 HOT MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 3/10 30% | 57.0 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing average Webb |
| 3 | Bryce Eldridge SF | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 4/10 40% | 54.5 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Drohan (ace, 3.33 ERA) |
| 4 | Fernando Tatis Jr.🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 54.1 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hughes (ace, 2. |
| 5 | Heliot Ramos SF | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 1/10 10% | 53.5 | Average bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Drohan (ace, 3.33 ERA) |
| 6 | Christian Yelich MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 7/10 70% | 52.3 | Below-avg bat · facing average Webb |
| 7 | Jackson Merrill🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 6/10 60% | 50.5 | Average bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hughes (ace, |
| 8 | Ty France🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 8/10 80% | 49.5 | Average bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hughes (ace, |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brice Turang | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SF @ MIL |
| 2 | Cooper Pratt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | SF @ MIL |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | SF @ MIL |
- 3 batters from SF @ MIL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 36% | 1.0x |
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 2 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-29T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 69% | 128 | $+4.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 65% | 96 | $+2.80 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 49% | 53 | $-8.95 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 783 | $-3.90 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 175 | $-37.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 953 | $-21.70 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (953 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (175 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (783 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 49% (53 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gorevs TB | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 28.5 | 32.098 | +3.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2830 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ MIN | Randy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan | 0.823 | 44% | 2.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ NYM | Chris Sale vs Christian Scott | 0.843 | 43% | 2.32x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ CWS | Cam Schlittler vs Davis Martin | 0.876 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ DET | Trevor Rogers vs Tarik Skubal | 0.918 | 40% | 2.5x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ PIT | Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jared Jones | 1.005 | 37% | 2.73x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ CIN | Joey Cantillo vs Brady Singer | 1.103 | 33% | 3.01x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ WSH | Trey Yesavage vs Zack Littell | 1.344 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | Matthew Boyd vs Dustin May | 1.329 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ LAA | Hayden Wesneski vs Grayson Rodriguez | 1.303 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ NYM | AJ Smith-Shawver vs Sean Manaea | 1.246 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TEX @ TB | MacKenzie Gore vs Casey Legumina | 1.201 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ SF | Thomas Pannone vs Logan Webb | 1.175 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-29.json