Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-25.41. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 8 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 18 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ AZ |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ AZ |
| Xavier Edwards MIA also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ KC |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ AZ |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ COL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ HOU |
| Kyle Schwarber PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ PHI |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 80%🔴 Luke Keaschall · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Bryan Reynolds · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ KC |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ ATL |
| Josh Jung TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Luke Keaschall MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CHC @ MIN |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ NYM |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Jose Altuve HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ HOU |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsEsmerlyn Valdez · Total BasesLane Thomas · Total BasesMauricio Dubón · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1106 🔴 Demons / 240 🟢 Goblins / 39 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 80.1 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.07 rece |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 4/10 40% | 79.5 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Bieber (11.53 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 6/10 60% | 77.0 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.07 recent ERA |
| 4 | Spencer Steer🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 5/10 50% | 75.0 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 5 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 3/10 30% | 74.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.07 recent |
| 6 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 72.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Rogers |
| 7 | Jac Caglianone KC | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 5/10 50% | 69.9 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Canning (4.67 ERA) |
| 8 | Bobby Witt Jr. KC | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 5/10 50% | 69.5 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Canning (4.67 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from COL @ CIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | COL @ CIN |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | COL @ CIN |
| 3 | Spencer Steer | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | COL @ CIN |
| 4 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | COL @ CIN |
Why:
- 4 batters from COL @ CIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.61x (EV $-0.39/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 22% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Michael Busch, Brooks Lee, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Brandon Marsh, Bo Bichette, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 13 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ MIN
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ MIN
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ AZ
🟢 GOBXavier Edwards Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIL @ MIA
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ MIN
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIA @ MIL
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ AZ
🟢 GOBXavier Edwards Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIL @ MIA
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-18T05:31.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 72% | 171 | $+7.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 53% | 170 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 92 | $+4.57 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 919 | $-13.50 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 41% | 235 | $-41.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1262 | $-30.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1262 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (235 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (919 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (92 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-1728 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ MIL | Max Meyer vs Shane Drohan | 0.879 | 42% | 2.41x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ BOS | Ian Seymour vs Patrick Sandoval | 0.983 | 37% | 2.67x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ KC | Griffin Canning vs Randy Dobnak | 1.038 | 35% | 2.82x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ SEA | Logan Webb vs Bryan Woo | 1.041 | 35% | 2.83x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ PHI | Sean Manaea vs Jesús Luzardo | 1.057 | 35% | 2.88x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ ATL | MacKenzie Gore vs Owen Murphy | 1.07 | 34% | 2.91x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ NYY | Emmet Sheehan vs Ryan Weathers | 1.364 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BAL @ HOU | Trevor Rogers vs Spencer Arrighetti | 1.344 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ COL | Rhett Lowder vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 1.31 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ AZ | Dustin May vs Brandon Pfaadt | 1.301 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CHC | Taj Bradley vs Matthew Boyd | 1.226 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ TOR | Davis Martin vs Shane Bieber | 1.224 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-18 10:44:32 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-18.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-18.json