Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-84.31. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks14 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CWS |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CWS |
| Nick Sogard BOS also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 89% (8/9) | +29pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Alex Bregman CHC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | BOS @ ATL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIN @ CWS |
Suggested 4-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 1 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~12x = EV +$4.44/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Willson Contreras · Total Bases 90%🔴 Brandon Lowe · Total Bases 80%🔴 Jesús Sánchez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Colson Montgomery · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons5 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Jesús Sánchez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ TOR |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ CWS |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Willson Contreras · Total BasesBrandon Lowe · Total BasesJesús Sánchez · Hits+Runs+RBIsMunetaka Murakami · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 384 🔴 Demons / 90 🟢 Goblins / 20 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout LAA | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 4/10 40% | 80.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Flaherty (5.06 ERA) |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler DET | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 4/10 40% | 74.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Rodriguez (10.61 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Brandon Lowe PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 8/10 80% | 74.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Rea (5.19 ERA) |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez🔥 HOT HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 4/10 40% | 74.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (14% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 5 | Pete Alonso BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 4/10 40% | 72.3 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Corbin (5.40 ERA) |
| 6 | Kevin McGonigle DET | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 3/10 30% | 69.0 | Above-avg bat · facing BP-arm Rodriguez (10.61 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Zach Neto LAA | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 67.3 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Flaherty (5.06 ERA) |
| 8 | Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 2/10 20% | 67.1 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Bassitt (4.86 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | DET @ LAA |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | LAA @ DET |
| 3 | Brandon Lowe | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | CHC @ PIT |
Why:
- 3 separate games (DET @ LAA / LAA @ DET / CHC @ PIT) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 53% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.80x (EV $-0.20/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 13% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 42% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | DET @ LAA |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | LAA @ DET |
| 3 | Brandon Lowe | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | CHC @ PIT |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TEX @ HOU |
Why:
- Add Yordan Alvarez at TEX @ HOU
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.67x (EV $-0.33/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 24% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Riley Greene, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Wilyer Abreu, Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, Brandon Valenzuela, Jeremiah Jackson
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 5 Demons + 9 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+1.16–$+2.60/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ BOS
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ PIT
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.8% combined
EV $+2.89–$+6.00/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ BOS
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBColson Montgomery Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIN @ CWS
🟢 GOBEsmerlyn Valdez Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
45.4% combined
EV $+3.08–$+7.16/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ BOS
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ PIT
🔴 DEMJesús Sánchez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BAL @ TOR
🟢 GOBColson Montgomery Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIN @ CWS
🟢 GOBEsmerlyn Valdez Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d10 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-28T05:45.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 64% | 36 | $+9.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Walks Allowed | 50% | 6 | $+0.50 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 27% (60 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-btts_no — 50% (12 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Reavs PIT | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-2730 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ BOS | Chris Sale vs Payton Tolle | 0.749 | 47% | 2.11x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ CWS | Kendry Rojas vs Davis Martin | 0.766 | 46% | 2.15x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ TEX | Spencer Arrighetti vs Nathan Eovaldi | 0.777 | 46% | 2.17x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CHC @ PIT | Colin Rea vs Paul Skenes | 1.203 | 30% | 3.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BAL | Patrick Corbin vs Chris Bassitt | 1.25 | 29% | 3.49x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ DET | Grayson Rodriguez vs Jack Flaherty | 1.317 | 27% | 3.73x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA @ DET | Grayson Rodriguez vs Jack Flaherty | 1.317 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ BAL | Patrick Corbin vs Chris Bassitt | 1.25 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ PIT | Colin Rea vs Paul Skenes | 1.203 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ TEX | Spencer Arrighetti vs Nathan Eovaldi | 0.777 | 54% | 1.85x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CWS | Kendry Rojas vs Davis Martin | 0.766 | 54% | 1.87x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ BOS | Chris Sale vs Payton Tolle | 0.749 | 53% | 1.9x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-28 06:14:47 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-28.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-28.json