| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman CHC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ CHC |
| Brent Rooker ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ ATH |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | HOU @ MIL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ PIT |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ TOR |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ ATH |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ CHC |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Junior Caminero TB also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ TB |
| Owen Caissie MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ MIA |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ PIT |
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs ⚪ STANDARD | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +40pp | MIL @ HOU |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | MIL @ HOU |
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | MIL @ HOU |
| Ketel Marte AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SEA @ AZ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | SD @ WSH |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ PIT |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BOS @ CLE |
| JJ Bleday CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ CIN |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ AZ |
| P.J. Higgins CIN | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | ATL @ CIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Jesús Sánchez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ TOR |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 977 🔴 Demons / 236 🟢 Goblins / 38 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 5/10 50% | 79.5 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.33 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 5/10 50% | 78.9 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.33 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr.🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 78.6 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.33 re |
| 4 | Jordan Walker STL | 0.5 | MORE | 44 | 6/10 60% | 78.2 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Wicks (16.61 recent ERA) |
| 5 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 4/10 40% | 77.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Canning (4.57 ERA) |
| 6 | Luke Raley SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 4/10 40% | 74.8 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Kelly (7.22 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Ian Happ CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 6/10 60% | 74.8 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Liberatore (5.42 ERA) |
| 8 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 7/10 70% | 74.6 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Bibee |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SD @ WSH |
| 3 | Ian Happ | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ CHC |
- 3 separate games (CIN @ ATL / SD @ WSH / STL @ CHC) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SD @ WSH |
| 3 | Ian Happ | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ CHC |
| 4 | Willson Contreras | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | CLE @ BOS |
- Add Willson Contreras at CLE @ BOS
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 8% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 30% | 1.5x |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 2 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ ATL |
- 3 batters from CIN @ ATL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 10% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 35% | 1.0x |
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 13 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d10 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-31T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 67% | 45 | $+13.50 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴MLB-Walks Allowed | 44% | 9 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 34% (71 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Walks Allowed — 44% (9 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays6 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kochanowiczvs TB | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Michael Wachavs TEX | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 105 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Braxton Ashcraftvs MIN | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 3.8 | +2.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Jack Leitervs KC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.8 | +2.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Merrill Kellyvs SEA | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Matthew Liberatorevs CHC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-3030 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 7/7 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ PIT | Zebby Matthews vs Braxton Ashcraft | 0.794 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ TEX | Michael Wacha vs Jack Leiter | 0.883 | 41% | 2.42x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BAL | Spencer Miles vs Kyle Bradish | 0.892 | 41% | 2.44x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ CLE | Ranger Suarez vs Tanner Bibee | 0.99 | 37% | 2.69x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ TB | Jack Kochanowicz vs Shane McClanahan | 1.043 | 35% | 2.84x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ CWS | Keider Montero vs Sean Burke | 1.082 | 34% | 2.95x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ WSH | Griffin Canning vs Zack Littell | 1.557 | 79% | 1.27x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | Jordan Wicks vs Matthew Liberatore | 1.423 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ CIN | Spencer Strider vs Nick Lodolo | 1.327 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ LAD | Andrew Painter vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 1.277 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ ATH | Will Warren vs Jacob Lopez | 1.266 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ COL | Robbie Ray vs Tanner Gordon | 1.22 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-31.json