Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-11.49. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 34 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 44 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TB @ SEA |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ CWS |
| Shea Langeliers ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ ATH |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Carson Benge NYM also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ NYM |
| Chandler Simpson TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ TB |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIA @ CLE |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ COL |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Xavier Edwards MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ MIA |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Chase DeLauter · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Munetaka Murakami · Total Bases 70%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Shea Langeliers · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIA @ CLE |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ CLE |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Luis Arraez SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | COL @ SF |
| Kyle Karros COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SF @ COL |
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATH @ CWS |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ CLE |
| Josh Bell MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAA @ MIN |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIsChase DeLauter · Hits+Runs+RBIsLuis Arraez · Total BasesKyle Karros · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1126 🔴 Demons / 246 🟢 Goblins / 43 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 6/10 60% | 81.0 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Poulin (5. |
| 2 | Heliot Ramos🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 78.8 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Freeland (5.78 |
| 3 | Dominic Canzone SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 4/10 40% | 73.8 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Jax (5.10 ERA) |
| 4 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 4/10 40% | 73.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Jump |
| 5 | Bryce Eldridge SF | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 2/10 20% | 72.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Freeland (5.78 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Casey Schmitt SF | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 72.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Freeland (5.78 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Heriberto Hernández🔥 HOT MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 7/10 70% | 71.7 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Bibee (4 |
| 8 | Rafael Devers🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 5/10 50% | 71.4 | Average bat · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Freeland (5.78 |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ NYY |
| 2 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ SF |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | ATH @ CWS |
Why:
- 3 separate games (WSH @ NYY / COL @ SF / ATH @ CWS) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.64x (EV $-0.36/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 10% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 35% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ NYY |
| 2 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ SF |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | ATH @ CWS |
| 4 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | BOS @ NYM |
Why:
- Add Juan Soto at BOS @ NYM
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.62x (EV $-0.38/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 22% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from COL @ SF — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ SF |
| 2 | Bryce Eldridge | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | COL @ SF |
| 3 | Casey Schmitt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | COL @ SF |
| 4 | Rafael Devers | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | COL @ SF |
Why:
- 4 batters from COL @ SF → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 40% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.35x (EV $-0.65/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 15% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Brooks Lee, Logan O'Hoppe, Jorge Soler, Nolan Schanuel, Denzer Guzman, Braden Montgomery, Lawrence Butler, Cody Bellinger
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 8 Demons + 12 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ CLE
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ CLE
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TB @ SEA
🟢 GOBMunetaka Murakami Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · ATH @ CWS
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ CLE
🔴 DEMMunetaka Murakami Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · ATH @ CWS
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TB @ SEA
🟢 GOBShea Langeliers Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CWS @ ATH
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-11T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 182 | $+7.20 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 180 | $+0.80 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 100 | $+4.79 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1151 | $-16.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 41% | 264 | $-50.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1336 | $-28.80 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1336 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (264 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1151 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (100 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays4 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandlervs MIL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 25.948 | +3.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Peter Lambertvs TEX | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.6 | +3.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Gage Jumpvs CWS | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.1 | +2.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Matthew Liberatorevs ATL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.7 | +2.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-1028 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ DET | Cristopher Sánchez vs Casey Mize | 0.721 | 49% | 2.06x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ WSH | Cam Schlittler vs PJ Poulin | 0.847 | 43% | 2.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TB | Logan Gilbert vs Griffin Jax | 0.875 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ CWS | Gage Jump vs Bryan Hudson | 0.982 | 38% | 2.67x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ TEX | Peter Lambert vs Kumar Rocker | 1.003 | 37% | 2.73x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ SD | Trey Yesavage vs Walker Buehler | 1.071 | 34% | 2.92x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ SF | Kyle Freeland vs Tyler Mahle | 1.487 | 77% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ PIT | Brandon Sproat vs Braxton Ashcraft | 1.389 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ STL | Reynaldo López vs Matthew Liberatore | 1.277 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ CIN | Javier Assad vs Nick Lodolo | 1.269 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ BAL | Noah Cameron vs Kyle Bradish | 1.219 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ PIT | Shane Drohan vs Bubba Chandler | 1.185 | 69% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-11 10:41:04 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-11.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-11.json