Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-27.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks23 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ KC |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TB @ SEA |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ CIN |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ BOS |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ ATL |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ PHI |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Austin Hedges · Total Bases 80%🔴 Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Carter Jensen · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIA @ CLE |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CIN @ CHC |
| Jose Altuve HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ ATL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Austin Hedges · Total BasesLiam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIsGarrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsKeibert Ruiz · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1170 🔴 Demons / 259 🟢 Goblins / 37 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heliot Ramos🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 4/10 40% | 78.7 | Solid bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Lorenzen (5 |
| 2 | Sal Stewart🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 5/10 50% | 78.2 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 3 | James Wood🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 64 | 8/10 80% | 77.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Warren |
| 4 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 65 | 5/10 50% | 77.2 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Boyd (4.55 ER |
| 5 | Shea Langeliers ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 1/10 10% | 76.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Schultz (6.05 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Bobby Witt Jr.🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 74.1 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Baz (4.52 E |
| 7 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 6/10 60% | 74.0 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Cavalli |
| 8 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 7/10 70% | 73.8 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Ritchie (4.81 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ SF |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ CIN |
| 3 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | NYY @ WSH |
Why:
- 3 separate games (COL @ SF / CHC @ CIN / NYY @ WSH) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 57% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.92x (EV $-0.08/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 16% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 44% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ SF |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ CIN |
| 3 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | NYY @ WSH |
| 4 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | BAL @ KC |
Why:
- Add Bobby Witt Jr. at BAL @ KC
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 52% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.79x (EV $-0.21/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 6% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 27% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
William Contreras, Gunnar Henderson, Michael Massey, Adley Rutschman, Jac Caglianone, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Stephenson, Ian Happ
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 20 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMAustin Hedges Total Bases MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ CLE
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMAustin Hedges Total Bases MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ CLE
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ AZ
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIL @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMAustin Hedges Total Bases MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ CLE
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · PIT @ MIL
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ AZ
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIL @ PIT
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-12T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 69% | 176 | $+6.80 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 175 | $+0.70 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 92 | $+1.10 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1103 | $-16.90 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 274 | $-56.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1301 | $-28.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1301 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (274 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1103 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (92 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-1132 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ DET | Zack Wheeler vs Tarik Skubal | 0.802 | 45% | 2.23x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ MIA | Joey Cantillo vs Tyler Phillips | 0.87 | 42% | 2.39x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ MIN | José Soriano vs Taj Bradley | 0.953 | 39% | 2.59x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TB | Emerson Hancock vs Ian Seymour | 0.976 | 38% | 2.65x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ NYM | Payton Tolle vs Zach Thornton | 1.025 | 36% | 2.79x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ LAD | Mitch Bratt vs Emmet Sheehan | 1.171 | 31% | 3.23x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ SF | Michael Lorenzen vs Trevor McDonald | 1.482 | 77% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ STL | JR Ritchie vs Dustin May | 1.379 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ TEX | Cristian Javier vs MacKenzie Gore | 1.36 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ WSH | Will Warren vs Cade Cavalli | 1.297 | 73% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ SD | Kevin Gausman vs Germán Márquez | 1.257 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ CIN | Matthew Boyd vs Andrew Abbott | 1.251 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-12 06:11:40 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-12.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-12.json