Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-72.46. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | +$6.39 | 0W / 0L | 8 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | +$6.39 | 0W / 0L | 20 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
1 ranked
ELITE · +14.7pp
Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal
2026-05-30 Paris Saint Germain v Arsenal · Match winner
$0
→ $0.00
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman CHC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ CHC |
| Brent Rooker ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ ATH |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | HOU @ MIL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ PIT |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ ATH |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ CHC |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Junior Caminero TB also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ TB |
| Owen Caissie MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ MIA |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ PIT |
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs ⚪ STANDARD | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +40pp | MIL @ HOU |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | DET @ CWS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~44% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.82/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Taylor Trammell · Hits 90%🔴 Ceddanne Rafaela · Total Bases 70%🔴 Yandy Díaz · Total Bases 70%🟢 Alex Bregman · Hits 100%🟢 Brent Rooker · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | MIL @ HOU |
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | MIL @ HOU |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ PIT |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BOS @ CLE |
| JJ Bleday CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ CIN |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ AZ |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Jesús Sánchez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ TOR |
| Yandy Díaz TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAA @ TB |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ CWS |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ PIT |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Taylor Trammell · HitsOneil Cruz · Total BasesTravis Bazzana · Total BasesJJ Bleday · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 917 🔴 Demons / 233 🟢 Goblins / 36 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 3/10 30% | 77.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.81 ERA) |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler DET | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 4/10 40% | 74.2 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Kay (5.70 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 3/10 30% | 71.7 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Valdez |
| 4 | Spencer Torkelson DET | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 3/10 30% | 71.4 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Kay (5.70 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Kevin McGonigle DET | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 3/10 30% | 69.0 | Above-avg bat · facing BP-arm Kay (5.70 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Cam Smith🔥 HOT HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 5/10 50% | 66.1 | Average bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.8 |
| 7 | Christian Walker HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 63.7 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.81 ERA) |
| 8 | Sam Antonacci CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 3/10 30% | 62.2 | Great bat 🔥 · facing average Valdez |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | MIL @ HOU |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CWS @ DET |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | DET @ CWS |
Why:
- 3 separate games (MIL @ HOU / CWS @ DET / DET @ CWS) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 33% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.33x (EV $-0.67/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 4% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 22% | 1.0x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from MIL @ HOU — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | MIL @ HOU |
| 2 | Cam Smith | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | MIL @ HOU |
| 3 | Christian Walker | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | MIL @ HOU |
Why:
- 3 batters from MIL @ HOU → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 40% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.47x (EV $-0.53/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 6% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 29% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Colson Montgomery, Riley Greene, Braden Shewmake
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d10 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-31T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 67% | 45 | $+13.50 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴MLB-Walks Allowed | 44% | 9 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 34% (71 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Walks Allowed — 44% (9 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays4 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 13 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Sproatvs HOU | Pitches Thrown | LESS 84.5 | 72.7 | -11.8pp | ⛔ LOW PITCH CAP | Short-leash — max 89 pitches across last 3 starts |
| Kyle Leahyvs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 25.865 | +3.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Peter Lambertvs MIL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Kyle Leahyvs CHC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.8 | +2.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ CLE | Sonny Gray vs Parker Messick | 0.739 | 48% | 2.09x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ NYM | Tyler Phillips vs Christian Scott | 0.762 | 47% | 2.14x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BAL | Trey Yesavage vs Brandon Young | 0.785 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ WSH | Michael King vs Foster Griffin | 0.849 | 43% | 2.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ TEX | Seth Lugo vs Kumar Rocker | 0.877 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ ATH | Ryan Weathers vs J.T. Ginn | 0.943 | 39% | 2.57x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ HOU | Brandon Sproat vs Peter Lambert | 1.362 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ LAD | Jesús Luzardo vs Roki Sasaki | 1.359 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ COL | Adrian Houser vs Ryan Feltner | 1.291 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ CIN | Martín Pérez vs Brady Singer | 1.247 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SEA | Ryne Nelson vs Bryan Woo | 1.221 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ CWS | Framber Valdez vs Anthony Kay | 1.173 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-30 22:36:55 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-30.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-30.json