Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+57.44. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 23 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jung Hoo Lee SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ SF |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Brent Rooker ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ ATH |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | HOU @ PIT |
| Ernie Clement TOR also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ TOR |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ SD |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ MIL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ HOU |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ TOR |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ ATH |
| Ryan McMahon NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ NYY |
| Shohei Ohtani LAD also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | AZ @ LAD |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~34% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.86/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Travis Bazzana · Total Bases 70%🔴 Oneil Cruz · Total Bases 70%🔴 Zack Gelof · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Jung Hoo Lee · Hits 100%🟢 Ryan Waldschmidt · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ CLE |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ BOS |
| Tommy Troy AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 56% (5/9) | +15.6pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ PIT |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ PIT |
| Casey Schmitt SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SF |
| Zack Gelof ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CHC @ ATH |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ PHI |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ ATH |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ BOS |
| Ian Happ CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATH @ CHC |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Corbin Carroll · Total BasesTravis Bazzana · Total BasesWillson Contreras · Total BasesOneil Cruz · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 599 🔴 Demons / 148 🟢 Goblins / 32 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 3/10 30% | 79.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Giolito (5.04 ERA) |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 5/10 50% | 78.3 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Giolito (5.04 ERA) |
| 3 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 6/10 60% | 77.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Rogers (4.62 ERA) |
| 4 | Pete Alonso🔥 HOT BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 76.0 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Bello (5.97 r |
| 5 | Casey Schmitt SF | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 6/10 60% | 75.4 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Crow (5.04 ERA) |
| 6 | Ronald Acuña Jr.🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 5/10 50% | 73.6 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard |
| 7 | Bryce Eldridge SF | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 6/10 60% | 73.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Crow (5.04 ERA) |
| 8 | Jackson Chourio MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 72.1 | Average bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Houser (5.67 recent ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Alonso | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | BOS @ BAL |
| 2 | Casey Schmitt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | MIL @ SF |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TOR @ ATL |
Why:
- 3 separate games (BOS @ BAL / MIL @ SF / TOR @ ATL) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.74x (EV $-0.26/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Alonso | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | BOS @ BAL |
| 2 | Casey Schmitt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | MIL @ SF |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TOR @ ATL |
| 4 | Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SF @ MIL |
Why:
- Add Jackson Chourio at SF @ MIL
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.62x (EV $-0.38/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 22% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Gavin Sheets, Adolis García, Miguel Andujar, Adley Rutschman, Ben Rice, Chase DeLauter, Angel Martínez, Brayan Rocchio
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 7 Demons + 13 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMTravis Bazzana Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYY @ CLE
🔴 DEMOneil Cruz Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · HOU @ PIT
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+1.94–$+4.29/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMTravis Bazzana Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYY @ CLE
🔴 DEMOneil Cruz Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · HOU @ PIT
🟢 GOBJung Hoo Lee Hits MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIL @ SF
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
34.3% combined
EV $+2.09–$+5.17/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMTravis Bazzana Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYY @ CLE
🔴 DEMOneil Cruz Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · HOU @ PIT
🔴 DEMZack Gelof Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CHC @ ATH
🟢 GOBJung Hoo Lee Hits MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIL @ SF
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ AZ
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d13 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-04T05:38.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 65% | 49 | $+13.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 59% | 34 | $+6.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 50% | 171 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 987 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games | 50% | 1070 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 50% | 210 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitching Outs | 50% | 6 | $+1.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 14% (7 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 29% (7 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 32% (92 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Walks Allowed — 44% (9 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-06-0330 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LOW_PITCH_CAP / PAPER | 2/2 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 3/3 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ PHI | Lucas Giolito vs Zack Wheeler | 0.888 | 41% | 2.43x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ MIN | Seth Lugo vs Andrew Morris | 0.961 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ ATL | TBD vs Chris Sale | 1.009 | 36% | 2.74x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ CHC | J.T. Ginn vs Shota Imanaga | 1.011 | 36% | 2.75x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ AZ | Justin Wrobleski vs Ryne Nelson | 1.149 | 32% | 3.16x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PIT @ HOU | Jared Jones vs Kai-Wei Teng | 1.188 | 30% | 3.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ BOS | Trevor Rogers vs Brayan Bello | 1.417 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CLE @ NYY | Slade Cecconi vs Carlos Rodón | 1.279 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ MIL | Adrian Houser vs Coleman Crow | 1.215 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ HOU | Jared Jones vs Kai-Wei Teng | 1.188 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ AZ | Justin Wrobleski vs Ryne Nelson | 1.149 | 68% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ CHC | J.T. Ginn vs Shota Imanaga | 1.011 | 64% | 1.57x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-04 06:16:36 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-04.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-04.json