Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-50.72. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 16 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 38 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks21 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady House WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ WSH |
| Bryson Stott PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BOS @ AZ |
| Alec Burleson STL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ STL |
| Alejandro Kirk TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TB @ TOR |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ ATL |
| Brett Bateman TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TB @ TOR |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ WSH |
| Chandler Simpson TB also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Hits | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ TB |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ CIN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ SD |
| Jac Caglianone KC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ KC |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~47% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$8.33/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Zac Veen · Hits+Runs+RBIs 83%🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Total Bases 80%🔴 Seiya Suzuki · Total Bases 70%🟢 Brady House · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Bryson Stott · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Veen COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 83% (5/6) | +43.3pp | LAD @ COL |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | BOS @ AZ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ CHC |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CHC @ CWS |
| Chandler Simpson TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ TB |
| Chandler Simpson TB | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ TB |
| Yandy Díaz TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ TB |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TOR |
| Alejandro Kirk TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TOR |
| Gleyber Torres DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ DET |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ CWS |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ CHC |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Zac Veen · Hits+Runs+RBIsGabriel Moreno · Total BasesSeiya Suzuki · Total BasesMunetaka Murakami · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1150 🔴 Demons / 254 🟢 Goblins / 45 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr.🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 5/10 50% | 75.2 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Stock (5 |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 5/10 50% | 72.0 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Holmes |
| 3 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 70.2 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing average Bradley |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 7/10 70% | 70.0 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing average Holmes |
| 5 | Ronald Acuña Jr.🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 4/10 40% | 68.7 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Bradley |
| 6 | Brandon Lowe PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 4/10 40% | 67.1 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Jobe (6.23 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Luis Campusano SD | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 3/10 30% | 65.2 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Stock (5.08 ERA) |
| 8 | Jackson Merrill SD | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 64.4 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Stock (5.08 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | NYM @ SD |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ CWS |
| 3 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | MIN @ ATL |
Why:
- 3 separate games (NYM @ SD / CHC @ CWS / MIN @ ATL) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.75x (EV $-0.25/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | NYM @ SD |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ CWS |
| 3 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | MIN @ ATL |
| 4 | Brandon Lowe | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | DET @ PIT |
Why:
- Add Brandon Lowe at DET @ PIT
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.64x (EV $-0.36/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 22% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from NYM @ SD — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | NYM @ SD |
| 2 | Luis Campusano | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | NYM @ SD |
| 3 | Jackson Merrill | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | NYM @ SD |
Why:
- 3 batters from NYM @ SD → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.55x (EV $-0.45/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds, Esmerlyn Valdez, Spencer Torkelson, Manny Machado, Ty France, A.J. Ewing, Drake Baldwin
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-19T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 82% | 60 | $+3.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 68% | 56 | $+2.00 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 54% | 39 | $-2.84 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 47% | 561 | $-3.70 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 43% | 293 | $-43.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 31% | 390 | $-15.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 31% (390 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 43% (293 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 47% (561 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 54% (39 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays4 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmesvs CWS | Pitches Thrown | MORE 85.5 | 95.0 | +9.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Paul Skenesvs DET | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 31.5 | 36.839 | +5.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Aaron Nolavs MIA | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 30.698 | +3.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Aaron Nolavs MIA | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-1830 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ CHC | Sean Newcomb vs Clay Holmes | 0.829 | 44% | 2.29x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ BOS | Brandon Pfaadt vs Payton Tolle | 0.836 | 43% | 2.31x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ CLE | Matt Wilkinson vs Parker Messick | 0.848 | 43% | 2.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ HOU | Walbert Ureña vs Ethan Pecko | 0.898 | 41% | 2.45x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ MIL | Logan Gilbert vs Dustin May | 1.007 | 36% | 2.74x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ CIN | Matthew Liberatore vs Chase Burns | 1.036 | 36% | 2.82x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ COL | Roki Sasaki vs Kyle Freeland | 1.537 | 78% | 1.27x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ PIT | Jackson Jobe vs Paul Skenes | 1.415 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ BAL | Will Warren vs Chris Bassitt | 1.401 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ MIN | AJ Smith-Shawver vs Taj Bradley | 1.2 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ PHI | Sandy Alcantara vs Aaron Nola | 1.19 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ TEX | Cade Cavalli vs Kumar Rocker | 1.191 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-19 09:16:27 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-19.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-19.json