| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks20 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (6/6) | +40pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Jake McCarthy COL also locks: Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ COL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIA |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ ATL |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges CLE | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Austin Hedges CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | ATL @ BAL |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ COL |
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Wyatt Langford TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ TEX |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIA |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 4 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1154 🔴 Demons / 262 🟢 Goblins / 43 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz TB | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 3/10 30% | 48.1 | Solid bat · tough matchup — Messick (ace, 3.23 ERA) |
| 2 | Jonny DeLuca TB | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 5/10 50% | 34.8 | Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Messick (ace, 3.23 ERA) |
| 3 | Ben Williamson TB | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 4/10 40% | 34.0 | Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Messick (ace, 3.23 ERA) |
| 4 | Chandler Simpson TB | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 5/10 50% | 33.7 | Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Messick (ace, 3.23 ERA) |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CLE @ TB |
| 2 | Jonny DeLuca | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CLE @ TB |
| 3 | Ben Williamson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CLE @ TB |
| 4 | Chandler Simpson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CLE @ TB |
- 4 batters from CLE @ TB → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 3% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 18% | 1.5x |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-26T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 69% | 131 | $+4.90 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 59% | 111 | $+2.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 49% | 71 | $-5.56 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 44% | 726 | $-8.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 974 | $-22.60 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 37% | 198 | $-50.00 |
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 37% (198 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (974 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 44% (726 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 49% (71 picks)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2530 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ TB | Parker Messick vs Drew Rasmussen | 0.783 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ SF | José Soriano vs Carson Whisenhunt | 0.864 | 42% | 2.37x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ PHI | Will Warren vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.933 | 39% | 2.54x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | Logan Gilbert vs Jacob deGrom | 0.943 | 39% | 2.57x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CIN @ STL | Andrew Abbott vs Kyle Leahy | 0.993 | 37% | 2.7x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BOS | Kevin Gausman vs Ranger Suarez | 1.02 | 36% | 2.77x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ NYM | Emmet Sheehan vs Freddy Peralta | 1.53 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ PIT | Jameson Taillon vs Braxton Ashcraft | 1.518 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ MIN | Jeffrey Springs vs Connor Prielipp | 1.518 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ MIA | Walker Buehler vs Janson Junk | 1.421 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ CWS | Ronel Blanco vs Erick Fedde | 1.374 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ DET | Luinder Avila vs Framber Valdez | 1.234 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-26.json