Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-53.85. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$10.37 | 5W / 13L | 3 live | 🚨 SMOKED |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | -$10.37 | 5W / 13L | 25 live | 28% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (8/8) | +40pp | WSH @ PHI |
| Jake Mangum PIT also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ WSH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Ty France SD also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | AZ @ SD |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ TEX |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| TJ Rumfield COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TB @ COL |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Cooper Pratt MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ MIL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~42% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.40/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Jeremy Peña · Total Bases 80%🔴 Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 75%🔴 Ty France · Total Bases 70%🟢 Jake Mangum · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 James Wood · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 75% (6/8) | +35.0pp | WSH @ PHI |
| Ty France SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ SD |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | WSH @ PHI |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Willy Adames SF | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ SF |
| Ty France SD | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | AZ @ SD |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| George Springer TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | HOU @ TOR |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 3.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIsTy France · Total BasesYordan Alvarez · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1093 🔴 Demons / 243 🟢 Goblins / 42 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 4/10 40% | 80.7 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Keller (5.10 |
| 2 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 3/10 30% | 78.8 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Rea (5.52 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 4/10 40% | 78.1 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Keller (5.10 ERA) |
| 4 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 63 | 2/10 20% | 77.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Ritchie (4.80 ERA) |
| 5 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 76.9 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Rocker (4.58 ERA) |
| 6 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 3/10 30% | 75.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Keller (5.10 ER |
| 7 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 3/10 30% | 75.2 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Jax (4.71 ERA) |
| 8 | Tyler Stephenson🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 5/10 50% | 75.1 | Solid bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ CIN |
| 2 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CHC @ NYY |
| 3 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | ATL @ WSH |
Why:
- 3 separate games (PIT @ CIN / CHC @ NYY / ATL @ WSH) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 30% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.26x (EV $-0.74/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 2% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 19% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ CIN |
| 2 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CHC @ NYY |
| 3 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | ATL @ WSH |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TEX @ HOU |
Why:
- Add Yordan Alvarez at TEX @ HOU
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 35% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.23x (EV $-0.77/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 1% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 11% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from PIT @ CIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ CIN |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ CIN |
| 3 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | PIT @ CIN |
| 4 | Tyler Stephenson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | PIT @ CIN |
Why:
- 4 batters from PIT @ CIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 40% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.37x (EV $-0.63/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 15% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Kyle Schwarber, Jackson Holliday, Keibert Ruiz, Mauricio Dubón, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Ernie Clement
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 7 Demons + 15 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
57.1% combined
EV $+0.71–$+1.86/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TEX @ HOU
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
5/7 L10 (71%) · BAL @ PHI
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
57.1% combined
EV $+2.43–$+5.17/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TEX @ HOU
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
5/7 L10 (71%) · BAL @ PHI
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYY @ CHC
🟢 GOBNick Gonzales Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CIN @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
40.0% combined
EV $+2.60–$+6.20/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TEX @ HOU
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
5/7 L10 (71%) · BAL @ PHI
🔴 DEMSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYY @ CHC
🟢 GOBNick Gonzales Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CIN @ PIT
🟢 GOBJames Wood Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · ATL @ WSH
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-03T05:39.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 80% | 105 | $+6.30 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 106 | $+3.60 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 690 | $-2.40 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 48% | 48 | $-10.81 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 205 | $-47.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 34% | 701 | $-22.70 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (701 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (205 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 48% (48 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (690 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays6 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 4 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatorevs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 28.815 | +6.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Landen Rouppvs SD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 31.364 | +4.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| George Kirbyvs MIN | Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS 35.5 | 30.814 | -4.7pp | ⛔ LOW PITCH CAP | Short-leash — max 86 pitches across last 3 starts |
| Anthony Kayvs TB | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 23.5 | 27.895 | +4.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Cade Cavallivs ATL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 31.139 | +3.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Walbert Ureñavs MIL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 27.938 | +3.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-0130 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ LAA | Jacob Misiorowski vs Walbert Ureña | 0.768 | 46% | 2.16x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ BAL | Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Bradish | 0.823 | 44% | 2.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ SEA | Taj Bradley vs George Kirby | 1.008 | 36% | 2.74x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ ATH | Keider Montero vs Gage Jump | 1.017 | 36% | 2.77x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ HOU | Kumar Rocker vs Peter Lambert | 1.02 | 36% | 2.77x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PIT @ CIN | Mitch Keller vs Chase Burns | 1.031 | 36% | 2.8x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ TOR | Matthew Liberatore vs Max Scherzer | 1.371 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ COL | Seth Lugo vs Kyle Freeland | 1.301 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ ATL | Cade Cavalli vs JR Ritchie | 1.296 | 73% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CHC | Gerrit Cole vs Colin Rea | 1.199 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ SD | Landen Roupp vs Kyle Hart | 1.154 | 68% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ TB | Anthony Kay vs Griffin Jax | 1.13 | 68% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (5 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
5 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Tim Tawa ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +86.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +69.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Taylor Trammell ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +63.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Cal Raleigh ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.5pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Ryan McMahon ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.1pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-02 22:40:32 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-02.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-02.json