Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-82.32. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$3.67 | 4W / 8L | 5 live | ↓ down |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | -$3.67 | 4W / 8L | 16 live | 33% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
1 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SD @ STL |
| Ezequiel Tovar COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ COL |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | COL @ CHC |
| Kyle Tucker LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TB @ LAD |
| Troy Johnston COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ COL |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | DET @ HOU |
| Zack Gelof ATH also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PIT @ ATH |
| Carson Benge NYM | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ NYM |
| Josh Jung TEX also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ TEX |
| Kyle Schwarber PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ CHC |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~37% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.47/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Alec Burleson · Total Bases 80%🔴 Heriberto Hernández · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Cole Carrigg · Total Bases 67%🟢 Ian Happ · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Kyle Tucker · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Carrigg COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | CHC @ COL |
| Troy Johnston COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ COL |
| Alec Burleson STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ STL |
| Josh Bell MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ MIN |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ COL |
| Ketel Marte AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAA @ AZ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 56% (5/9) | +15.6pp | ATH @ PIT |
| Jordan Walker STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ STL |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Willi Castro COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ COL |
| Troy Johnston COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ COL |
| Zack Gelof ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ ATH |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Cole Carrigg · Total BasesAlec Burleson · Total BasesJosh Bell · Hits+Runs+RBIsKetel Marte · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 826 🔴 Demons / 212 🟢 Goblins / 25 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Kurtz🔥 HOT ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 83.2 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.55 |
| 2 | Dominic Canzone🔥 HOT SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 4/10 40% | 79.2 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Poulin (6.14 |
| 3 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 3/10 30% | 76.9 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Gallen (5.53 recent E |
| 4 | Byron Buxton MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 5/10 50% | 74.3 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable McGreevy (5.43 ERA) |
| 5 | Jac Caglianone🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 74.0 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Arrighetti |
| 6 | James Wood WSH | 0.5 | MORE | 53 | 7/10 70% | 73.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Hancock |
| 7 | Matt McLain🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 5/10 50% | 72.8 | Average bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 8 | Corbin Carroll🔥 HOT AZ | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 4/10 40% | 72.7 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Abbott (4 |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ ATH |
| 2 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | AZ @ CIN |
| 3 | James Wood | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | SEA @ WSH |
Why:
- 3 separate games (COL @ ATH / AZ @ CIN / SEA @ WSH) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.61x (EV $-0.39/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 36% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ ATH |
| 2 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | AZ @ CIN |
| 3 | James Wood | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | SEA @ WSH |
| 4 | Corbin Carroll | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ AZ |
Why:
- Add Corbin Carroll at CIN @ AZ
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.49x (EV $-0.51/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 3% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 19% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Gunnar Henderson, Xander Bogaerts, Julio Rodríguez, Luke Raley, Ben Rice, Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart, Austin Riley
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 14 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMJordan Walker Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMMichael Busch Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ CHC
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMJordan Walker Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMMichael Busch Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ CHC
🟢 GOBCole Carrigg Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · ATH @ COL
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYY @ TOR
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
39.2% combined
EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMJordan Walker Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMMichael Busch Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ CHC
🔴 DEMMichael Harris II Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ ATL
🟢 GOBCole Carrigg Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · ATH @ COL
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYY @ TOR
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d13 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-15T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 67% | 15 | $+6.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 65% | 66 | $+17.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 57% | 35 | $+5.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 51% | 211 | $+1.40 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 51% | 256 | $+0.60 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitching Outs | 50% | 6 | $+1.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 50% | 1390 | $-1.20 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 14% (7 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 25% (8 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (101 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 43% (116 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays6 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 3 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springsvs COL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 29.465 | +7.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Bryce Eldervs NYM | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 27.632 | +5.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Taj Bradleyvs STL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 30.554 | +4.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 104 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Stephen Kolekvs HOU | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.1 | +2.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Bryce Eldervs NYM | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Spencer Arrighettivs KC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.8 | +2.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ CLE | Casey Mize vs Gavin Williams | 0.748 | 47% | 2.11x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ PIT | Max Meyer vs Paul Skenes | 0.768 | 46% | 2.16x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ MIL | Cristopher Sánchez vs Kyle Harrison | 0.785 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ KC | Spencer Arrighetti vs Stephen Kolek | 0.805 | 45% | 2.24x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ WSH | Emerson Hancock vs PJ Poulin | 0.887 | 41% | 2.43x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CHC @ SF | Ryan Rolison vs Logan Webb | 0.931 | 39% | 2.54x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ BAL | Walker Buehler vs Trevor Rogers | 1.339 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ CIN | Zac Gallen vs Andrew Abbott | 1.237 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TB @ LAA | Casey Legumina vs Grayson Rodriguez | 1.205 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ ATH | Tomoyuki Sugano vs Jeffrey Springs | 1.201 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ TOR | Will Warren vs Patrick Corbin | 1.163 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ CWS | Emmet Sheehan vs Bryan Hudson | 1.143 | 68% | 1.47x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (4 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
4 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Donovan Walton ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +89.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Isaac Collins ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +83.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Joe Mack ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +81.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Joey Ortiz ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +71.0pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-14 22:37:04 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-14.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-14.json