Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+137.80. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 17 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 27 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
1 ranked
ELITE · +6.4pp
Brandon Lowe
Will hit a home run · Home run (Kalshi)
$5
→ $35.71
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $5 total stake · 1 fires
Real Money Plan — Kalshi + PrizePicks (CA-legal)
| Sport | Pick | Market | Side | Tier | Edge | Stake | Max Payout | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Brandon Lowe | Home run (Kalshi) | Will hit a home run | ELITE | +6.4pp | $5 | $35.71 | Fire on Kalshi → |
| TOTAL (1 fires) | $5 | $35.71 | ||||||
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
| Pick | Current | Open | Move | Raw Edge | Vig-Adj Edge | Price Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾Brandon Lowe | — | — | —pp | +6.4pp | +7.8pp | ⚪ flat |
Open vs current Kalshi YES-ask. Vig-Adj Edge applies favorite-longshot bias correction. Price Move: 🟢 cheaper = better entry now · 🔴 pricier = worse entry. Threshold ±3¢ big move, ±1¢ small move. 1 tracked tickers.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ PIT |
| Adrian Del Castillo AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ AZ |
| Konnor Griffin PIT also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ PIT |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Riley Greene DET also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ DET |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ PIT |
| Zach Neto LAA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ LAA |
| Aaron Judge NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ NYY |
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ STL |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIA @ ATL |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | AZ @ COL |
| Marcell Ozuna PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | STL @ PIT |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~40% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.06/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Riley Greene · Singles 80%🔴 Angel Martínez · RBIs 80%🔴 Juan Soto · Total Bases 70%🟢 Oneil Cruz · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Adrian Del Castillo · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene DET | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ DET |
| Riley Greene DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ DET |
| Riley Greene DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ DET |
| James Wood WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Henry Bolte ATH | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | LAA @ ATH |
| A.J. Ewing NYM | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 56% (5/9) | +15.6pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Juan Soto NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Angel Martínez CLE | RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | DET @ CLE |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | STL @ PIT |
| Angel Martínez CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ CLE |
| Dillon Dingler DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ DET |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ PIT |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Riley Greene · SinglesJames Wood · Total BasesHenry Bolte · SinglesA.J. Ewing · Singles
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 397 🔴 Demons / 107 🟢 Goblins / 15 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Lowe PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 64.8 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average May |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler DET | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 6/10 60% | 61.6 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Cantillo (ace, 3.90 ERA) |
| 3 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 3/10 30% | 61.6 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Ashcraft (ace, 2.88 ERA) |
| 4 | Kevin McGonigle DET | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 2/10 20% | 59.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Cantillo (ace, 3.90 ERA) |
| 5 | Spencer Torkelson DET | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 1/10 10% | 58.5 | Average bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Cantillo (ace, 3.90 ERA) |
| 6 | Alec Burleson STL | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 2/10 20% | 56.1 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Ashcraft (ace, 2.88 ERA) |
| 7 | Marcell Ozuna🔥 HOT PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 3/10 30% | 55.9 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · facing average May |
| 8 | José Ramírez CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 5/10 50% | 53.4 | Great bat 🔥 · tough matchup — Mize (ace, 2.99 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Lowe | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | STL @ PIT |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CLE @ DET |
| 3 | Jordan Walker | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | PIT @ STL |
Why:
- 3 separate games (STL @ PIT / CLE @ DET / PIT @ STL) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.63x (EV $-0.37/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 9% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 36% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Lowe | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | STL @ PIT |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CLE @ DET |
| 3 | Jordan Walker | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | PIT @ STL |
| 4 | José Ramírez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | DET @ CLE |
Why:
- Add José Ramírez at DET @ CLE
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.61x (EV $-0.39/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 22% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from CLE @ DET — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CLE @ DET |
| 2 | Kevin McGonigle | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CLE @ DET |
| 3 | Spencer Torkelson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 1/10 10% | CLE @ DET |
Why:
- 3 batters from CLE @ DET → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 30% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.20x (EV $-0.80/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 1% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 16% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Daniel Schneemann, Riley Greene, Wenceel Pérez, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 4 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
5.0–8.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.20–$+4.12/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMRiley Greene Singles MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ DET
🔴 DEMAngel Martínez RBIs MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ CLE
$5 → $25–$40
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
10.8–21.0xpayout range
57.6% combined
EV $+5.22–$+11.10/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMRiley Greene Singles MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ DET
🔴 DEMAngel Martínez RBIs MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ CLE
🟢 GOBOneil Cruz Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ PIT
🟢 GOBKonnor Griffin Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · STL @ PIT
$5 → $54–$105
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-21T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢OTHER-btts_no | 62% | 8 | $+4.49 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 12 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 16% | 25 | $-60.93 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 16% (25 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 50% (12 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 50% (10 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 58% (19 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays4 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraftvs STL | Pitches Thrown | MORE 91.5 | 105.0 | +13.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Spencer Stridervs MIA | Pitches Thrown | LESS 90.5 | 82.2 | -8.3pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (18d ago), only 3 starts |
| Spencer Stridervs MIA | Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS 32.5 | 25.025 | -7.5pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (18d ago), only 3 starts |
| Spencer Stridervs MIA | Pitching Outs | LESS 16.5 | 14.1 | -2.4pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (18d ago), only 3 starts |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-2030 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 3/3 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ DET | Joey Cantillo vs Casey Mize | 0.765 | 46% | 2.15x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ MIA | Spencer Strider vs Sandy Alcantara | 0.908 | 40% | 2.48x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ LAA | Luis Severino vs José Soriano | 0.959 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| COL @ AZ | Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.114 | 33% | 3.05x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PIT @ STL | Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May | 1.188 | 30% | 3.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ NYY | Braydon Fisher vs Carlos Rodón | 1.189 | 30% | 3.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ WSH | David Peterson vs Cade Cavalli | 1.454 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ NYY | Braydon Fisher vs Carlos Rodón | 1.189 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ STL | Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May | 1.188 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ AZ | Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.114 | 67% | 1.49x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ LAA | Luis Severino vs José Soriano | 0.959 | 62% | 1.62x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ MIA | Spencer Strider vs Sandy Alcantara | 0.908 | 60% | 1.68x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-21 09:12:53 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-21.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-21.json