Money Slate · 2026-07-21

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-12.36. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	-$3.00	2W / 5L	0 live	🚨 SMOKED
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	—	no slate today
PORTFOLIO	-$3.00	2W / 5L	10 live	29% hit

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks15 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Gabriel Moreno AZ	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	ATH @ AZ
Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	MIA @ HOU
Josh Naylor SEA	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CIN @ SEA
Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIN @ CLE
Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIN @ CLE
Heliot Ramos SF	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	KC @ SF
Hunter Goodman COL	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	WSH @ COL
Isaac Paredes HOU	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIA @ HOU
Jacob Wilson ATH	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	AZ @ ATH
Jake McCarthy COL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	WSH @ COL
Jordan Walker STL also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	LAA @ STL
Munetaka Murakami CWS	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	TEX @ CWS

Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~34% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.86/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Chase DeLauter · Total Bases 70%🔴 Ty France · Total Bases 70%🟢 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Garrett Mitchell MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	NYM @ MIL
Ryan Jeffers MIN	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	67% (4/6)	+26.7pp	CLE @ MIN
Chase DeLauter CLE	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	MIN @ CLE
Lane Thomas KC	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SF @ KC
Garrett Mitchell MIL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYM @ MIL
Ty France SD	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	ATL @ SD
Nolan Arenado AZ	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	ATH @ AZ
A.J. Ewing NYM	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIL @ NYM
Michael Harris II ATL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SD @ ATL
Miguel Vargas CWS	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	TEX @ CWS
Heriberto Hernández MIA	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	HOU @ MIA
Tommy Edman LAD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	PHI @ LAD

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsRyan Jeffers · Total BasesChase DeLauter · Total BasesLane Thomas · Total Bases

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 1192 🔴 Demons / 281 🟢 Goblins / 44 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Juan Soto NYM	1.5	MORE	44	2/10 20%	76.0	Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.81 ERA)
2	Drake Baldwin ATL	1.5	MORE	44	4/10 40%	74.9	Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Buehler (4.52 ERA)
3	Matt Olson ATL	1.5	MORE	44	3/10 30%	72.7	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Buehler (4.52 ERA)
4	Bryce Eldridge🔥 HOT SF	1.5	MORE	42	5/10 50%	71.6	Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Avila (4.
5	Ben Rice NYY	1.5	MORE	42	6/10 60%	71.2	Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Chandler
6	James Wood WSH	1.5	MORE	44	4/10 40%	70.3	Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
7	Yordan Alvarez HOU	1.5	MORE	41	7/10 70%	70.1	Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
8	Heliot Ramos SF	1.5	MORE	42	4/10 40%	70.0	Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Avila (4.87 ERA)

Auto-faded (caught by gates):

Josh Bell, Kyle Manzardo, Brooks Lee, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Bryson Stott, Kyle Tucker, Brandon Lowe

🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST

2-pick

3.0–5.0xpayout range

49.0% combined

EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1

Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.

🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL

🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ CLE

$5 → $15–$25

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚖️ BALANCED

4-pick

6.0–10.8xpayout range

44.1% combined

EV $+1.65–$+3.76/$1

2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.

🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL

🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ CLE

⚪ STAEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ PIT

🟢 GOBMunetaka Murakami Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · TEX @ CWS

$5 → $30–$54

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

🚀 HUNGRY

5-pick

9.0–18.0xpayout range

30.9% combined

EV $+1.78–$+4.56/$1

Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.

🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL

🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ CLE

🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ KC

⚪ STAEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ PIT

🟢 GOBMunetaka Murakami Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · TEX @ CWS

$5 → $45–$90

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-22T05:36.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	70%	167	$+6.70
🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks	55%	156	$+1.60
🟡UNKNOWN	53%	90	$+11.14
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	42%	931	$-15.10
🔴Tennis-Total Games	38%	1206	$-29.80
🔴MLB-Total Bases	37%	229	$-59.00

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 37% (229 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1206 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (931 picks)
🔴 UNKNOWN — 53% (90 picks)

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays6 trusted

Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.

Pitcher	Stat	Side	Proj	Edge	Signal	Why
Luinder Avilavs SF	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 19.5	28.581	+9.1pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Luinder Avilavs SF	Pitches Thrown	MORE 86.5	95.0	+8.5pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Tyler Mahlevs KC	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 22.5	29.531	+7.0pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 104 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Brandon Sproatvs NYM	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 25.5	31.916	+6.4pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 106 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Drew Rasmussenvs TOR	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 28.5	33.077	+4.6pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Justin Wrobleskivs PHI	Earned Runs Allowed	MORE 2.5	5.2	+2.7pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 110 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2030 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	1/1	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
MIN @ CLE	Kendry Rojas vs Parker Messick	0.73	48%	2.08x	⚡ Kalshi NO
LAD @ PHI	Justin Wrobleski vs Zack Wheeler	0.794	45%	2.21x	⚡ Kalshi NO
BAL @ BOS	Kyle Bradish vs Eduardo Rivera	0.814	44%	2.26x	⚡ Kalshi NO
CIN @ SEA	Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo	0.952	39%	2.59x	⚡ Kalshi NO
TB @ TOR	Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman	1.063	34%	2.89x	⚡ Kalshi NO
STL @ LAA	Matthew Liberatore vs Walbert Ureña	1.093	34%	2.98x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
WSH @ COL	Carson Palmquist vs Michael Lorenzen	1.701	82%	1.22x	⚡ Kalshi YES
CWS @ TEX	Noah Schultz vs Kumar Rocker	1.4	75%	1.33x	⚡ Kalshi YES
SF @ KC	Tyler Mahle vs Luinder Avila	1.39	75%	1.33x	⚡ Kalshi YES
PIT @ NYY	Bubba Chandler vs Will Warren	1.379	75%	1.34x	⚡ Kalshi YES
DET @ CHC	Framber Valdez vs David Peterson	1.357	74%	1.35x	⚡ Kalshi YES
ATH @ AZ	Jack Perkins vs Kohl Drake	1.295	73%	1.38x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

📋 Today's Results (2 locked)

Today's Results — Settled + Live

2 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.

Sport	Pick	Market	Edge	State
MLB	Trevor Larnach ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+99.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Kahlil Watson ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+69.0pp	✅ WON

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-12.36 (26 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-07-21 22:36:42 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-21.json