Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-45.17. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 20 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 30 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TB @ SEA |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ ATL |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ PHI |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Carlos Narváez BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ BOS |
| Carson Benge NYM also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ NYM |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ COL |
| Kevin McGonigle DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ DET |
| Kyle Teel CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ CWS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 80%🔴 Brayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Corbin Carroll · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ CLE |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | BAL @ KC |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Luis Arraez SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | COL @ SF |
| Kyle Karros COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SF @ COL |
| Kyle Karros COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SF @ COL |
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIsGabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIsLane Thomas · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1172 🔴 Demons / 250 🟢 Goblins / 52 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heliot Ramos🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 78.8 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Freeland (5.78 |
| 2 | Sal Stewart🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 6/10 60% | 78.2 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 3 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 5/10 50% | 78.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Liberatore (5.49 ERA) |
| 4 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 6/10 60% | 77.3 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Mikolas |
| 5 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 5/10 50% | 77.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Rocker (4.59 ERA) |
| 6 | Dominic Canzone SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 4/10 40% | 75.5 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Jax (5.11 ERA) |
| 7 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 64 | 5/10 50% | 74.5 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Assad (4.65 ERA) |
| 8 | Bryce Eldridge SF | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 2/10 20% | 74.2 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Freeland (5.78 recent ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ SF |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CHC @ CIN |
| 3 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | STL @ ATL |
Why:
- 3 separate games (COL @ SF / CHC @ CIN / STL @ ATL) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.74x (EV $-0.26/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ SF |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CHC @ CIN |
| 3 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | STL @ ATL |
| 4 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ NYY |
Why:
- Add Ben Rice at WSH @ NYY
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 52% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.85x (EV $-0.15/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 7% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 28% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Brooks Lee, Denzer Guzman, Jorge Soler, Nolan Schanuel, Logan O'Hoppe, Braden Montgomery, Lawrence Butler, Cody Bellinger
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 15 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · BAL @ KC
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · BAL @ KC
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TB @ SEA
🟢 GOBGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · BAL @ KC
🔴 DEMBrayan Rocchio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIA @ CLE
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TB @ SEA
🟢 GOBGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ AZ
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-11T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 182 | $+7.20 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 180 | $+0.80 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 100 | $+4.79 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1151 | $-16.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 41% | 264 | $-50.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1336 | $-28.80 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1336 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (264 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1151 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (100 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-1028 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ DET | Cristopher Sánchez vs Casey Mize | 0.721 | 49% | 2.06x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TB | Logan Gilbert vs Griffin Jax | 0.875 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ CWS | Gage Jump vs Bryan Hudson | 0.982 | 38% | 2.67x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ TEX | Peter Lambert vs Kumar Rocker | 1.003 | 37% | 2.73x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ SD | Trey Yesavage vs Walker Buehler | 1.071 | 34% | 2.92x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ MIA | Tanner Bibee vs Eury Pérez | 1.092 | 34% | 2.98x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ SF | Kyle Freeland vs Tyler Mahle | 1.487 | 77% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ PIT | Brandon Sproat vs Braxton Ashcraft | 1.393 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ STL | Reynaldo López vs Matthew Liberatore | 1.277 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ CIN | Javier Assad vs Nick Lodolo | 1.269 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ WSH | Cam Schlittler vs Miles Mikolas | 1.247 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ BAL | Noah Cameron vs Kyle Bradish | 1.219 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-11 06:14:09 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-11.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-11.json