Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-27.91. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ AZ |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TOR @ CWS |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Heliot Ramos SF also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ SF |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | WSH @ ATH |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Xavier Edwards MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Luis Lara MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | MIA @ MIL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 80%🟢 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Munetaka Murakami · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ ATL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ ATH |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ SF |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ KC |
| Josh Jung TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ MIA |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIsGarrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIsMauricio Dubón · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 5 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1143 🔴 Demons / 240 🟢 Goblins / 49 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 5/10 50% | 62.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Yesavage (ace, 3.31 ERA) |
| 2 | Sam Antonacci🔥 HOT CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 3/10 30% | 48.9 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · tough matchup — Yesavage (ace, 3.31 ERA) |
| 3 | Colson Montgomery CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 48.6 | Average bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Yesavage (ace, 3.31 ERA) |
| 4 | Tristan Peters🔥 HOT CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 2/10 20% | 41.2 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · tough matchup — Yesavage (ace, 3.31 ERA) |
| 5 | Braden Montgomery CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 3/10 30% | 36.7 | Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Yesavage (ace, 3.31 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from TOR @ CWS — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TOR @ CWS |
| 2 | Sam Antonacci | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | TOR @ CWS |
| 3 | Colson Montgomery | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TOR @ CWS |
| 4 | Tristan Peters | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TOR @ CWS |
Why:
- 4 batters from TOR @ CWS → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 35% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.23x (EV $-0.77/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 1% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 11% | 1.5x |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-19T05:39.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 72% | 169 | $+7.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 53% | 164 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 53% | 93 | $+6.31 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 897 | $-13.50 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 41% | 242 | $-44.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 37% | 1241 | $-31.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 37% (1241 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (242 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (897 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 53% (93 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ BOS | Shane McClanahan vs Sonny Gray | 0.72 | 49% | 2.05x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ NYY | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Cam Schlittler | 0.827 | 44% | 2.29x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ SEA | Robbie Ray vs Logan Gilbert | 0.831 | 44% | 2.3x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ TOR | Sean Burke vs Trey Yesavage | 0.905 | 40% | 2.47x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ AZ | Andre Pallante vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 0.928 | 40% | 2.53x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ HOU | Brandon Young vs Hunter Brown | 0.932 | 39% | 2.54x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN @ COL | Hunter Greene vs Ryan Feltner | 1.408 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ MIL | Eury Pérez vs Robert Gasser | 1.399 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CHC | Zebby Matthews vs Shota Imanaga | 1.355 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ KC | Germán Márquez vs Noah Cameron | 1.29 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ ATH | Foster Griffin vs Jacob Lopez | 1.28 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ NYY | TBD vs TBD | 1.272 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-19 06:11:43 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-19.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-19.json