Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-64.34. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 14 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 36 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks21 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Dylan Crews WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ WSH |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BOS @ AZ |
| Alec Burleson STL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ STL |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ ATL |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ WSH |
| Carson Benge NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ NYM |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ KC |
| Chandler Simpson TB also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ TB |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ CWS |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ CIN |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ MIL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Andrés Giménez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Pete Alonso · Total Bases 80%🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Total Bases 80%🟢 Bryson Stott · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Dylan Crews · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrés Giménez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TB @ TOR |
| Carson Benge NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ NYM |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ CHC |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | AZ @ BOS |
| Bryce Harper PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Chandler Simpson TB | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ TB |
| Chandler Simpson TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ TB |
| Yandy Díaz TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ TB |
| Luis Torrens NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ NYM |
| Royce Lewis MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ MIN |
| Matt Olson ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ ATL |
| Brett Bateman TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 56% (5/9) | +15.6pp | TB @ TOR |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Andrés Giménez · Hits+Runs+RBIsCarson Benge · Hits+Runs+RBIsSeiya Suzuki · Total BasesCeddanne Rafaela · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1150 🔴 Demons / 248 🟢 Goblins / 45 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 3/10 30% | 81.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Kelly (7.15 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Wilyer Abreu🔥 HOT BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 6/10 60% | 76.7 | Solid bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Kelly (7.15 recen |
| 3 | Tyler Stephenson🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 2/10 20% | 76.0 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 4 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 1/10 10% | 75.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Leahy (5.08 ERA |
| 5 | Alec Burleson🔥 HOT STL | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 6/10 60% | 74.8 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Abbott (4. |
| 6 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 6/10 60% | 74.0 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Matthews (4.69 ERA) |
| 7 | Jac Caglianone🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 6/10 60% | 73.5 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Perkins |
| 8 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 4/10 40% | 72.5 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Leahy (5.08 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilyer Abreu | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | AZ @ BOS |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 1/10 10% | STL @ CIN |
| 3 | Alec Burleson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CIN @ STL |
Why:
- 3 separate games (AZ @ BOS / STL @ CIN / CIN @ STL) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.48x (EV $-0.52/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 4% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 37% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilyer Abreu | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | AZ @ BOS |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 1/10 10% | STL @ CIN |
| 3 | Alec Burleson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CIN @ STL |
| 4 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | MIN @ ATL |
Why:
- Add Matt Olson at MIN @ ATL
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.49x (EV $-0.51/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 24% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from STL @ CIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Stephenson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | STL @ CIN |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 1/10 10% | STL @ CIN |
| 3 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | STL @ CIN |
Why:
- 3 batters from STL @ CIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 23% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.14x (EV $-0.86/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 1% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 12% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Heliot Ramos, Luis García Jr., Spencer Jones, José Ramírez, Travis Bazzana, Osleivis Basabe, Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 15 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMAndrés Giménez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TB @ TOR
🔴 DEMPete Alonso Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ BAL
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMAndrés Giménez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TB @ TOR
🔴 DEMPete Alonso Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ BAL
🟢 GOBBryson Stott Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIA @ PHI
🟢 GOBGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BOS @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
51.2% combined
EV $+3.61–$+8.22/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMAndrés Giménez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TB @ TOR
🔴 DEMPete Alonso Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ BAL
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · BOS @ AZ
🟢 GOBBryson Stott Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIA @ PHI
🟢 GOBDylan Crews Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TEX @ WSH
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-18T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 81% | 63 | $+3.90 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 58 | $+2.00 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 55% | 40 | $-1.10 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 46% | 573 | $-4.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 43% | 286 | $-42.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 31% | 411 | $-15.90 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 31% (411 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 43% (286 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 46% (573 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 55% (40 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-1722 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/3 | 67% |
🚨 Classifier misses to recalibrate
- Walker Buehler (WORKHORSE) — actual 6.0 IP / 86 p · pick: → SKIP_REJECTED
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ NYM | Robbie Ray vs Zac Thornton | 0.779 | 46% | 2.18x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ TB | José Soriano vs Nick Martinez | 0.791 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ MIL | Bryce Miller vs Kyle Harrison | 0.822 | 44% | 2.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ CIN | Kyle Leahy vs Andrew Abbott | 0.979 | 38% | 2.66x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ BAL | Carlos Rodón vs Shane Baz | 1.033 | 36% | 2.81x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ CLE | Carson Whisenhunt vs Foster Griffin | 1.076 | 34% | 2.93x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ COL | Eric Lauer vs Ryan Feltner | 1.533 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ MIN | Tyler Mahle vs Zebby Matthews | 1.477 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ HOU | George Klassen vs Cristian Javier | 1.439 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ CHC | TBD vs Kevin Gausman | 1.371 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ KC | Jack Perkins vs TBD | 1.245 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ TEX | Jackson Kent vs Cal Quantrill | 1.217 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-18 06:39:57 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-18.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-18.json