| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 6 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 28 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks14 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SD |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ LAD |
| Jake Cronenworth SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SD |
| Joey Ortiz MIL also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Jonathan Aranda TB | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TB |
| Teoscar Hernández LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ LAD |
| William Contreras MIL also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Ben Rice NYY also locks: Hitter Strikeouts | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ NYY |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ MIL |
| Dustin Harris SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
| Jackson Merrill SD also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons10 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Joey Ortiz MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Spencer Jones NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Mookie Betts LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ LAD |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ ATL |
| George Lombard Jr. NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 2 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 235 🔴 Demons / 41 🟢 Goblins / 12 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teoscar Hernández LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 5/10 50% | 55.5 | Average bat · hitting it hard |
| 2 | Mookie Betts LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 6/10 60% | 51.5 | Average bat |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-03T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 84% | 25 | $+1.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 80% | 15 | $+0.90 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 57% | 7 | $+1.50 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 93 | $-0.30 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 45% | 22 | $-2.27 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 413 | $-81.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 37% | 182 | $-4.80 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 37% (182 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (413 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 45% (22 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (93 picks)
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ CLE | Hagen Smith vs Parker Messick | 0.745 | 48% | 2.11x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ LAD | Dylan Dodd vs Tarik Skubal | 0.791 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ TB | Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen | 0.846 | 43% | 2.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ MIL | Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski | 0.895 | 41% | 2.45x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ MIL | Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski | 0.895 | 59% | 1.69x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ TB | Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen | 0.846 | 57% | 1.75x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ LAD | Dylan Dodd vs Tarik Skubal | 0.791 | 55% | 1.83x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ CLE | Hagen Smith vs Parker Messick | 0.745 | 52% | 1.9x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-03.json