Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+116.68. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 32 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ CWS |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ HOU |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ ATH |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAA @ TEX |
| Jackson Chourio MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Jo Adell LAA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TEX @ LAA |
| Konnor Griffin PIT also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ PIT |
| Miguel Andujar SD also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATH @ SD |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ PIT |
| Ramón Laureano SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATH @ SD |
Suggested 4-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 1 Green Lock insurance. ~30% combined hit prob × ~12x = EV +$2.63/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Jake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Darell Hernaiz · Singles 70%🔴 Sam Antonacci · Total Bases 60%🟢 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons9 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Darell Hernaiz ATH | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ ATH |
| Sam Antonacci CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SF @ CWS |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ PIT |
| Jake Bauers MIL | RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAA @ TEX |
| Miguel Andujar SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATH @ SD |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ TOR |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Jake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIsDarell Hernaiz · SinglesSam Antonacci · Total BasesBrandon Lowe · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 910 🔴 Demons / 226 🟢 Goblins / 39 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 2/10 20% | 80.5 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Taillon (5.12 ERA) |
| 2 | Christian Walker HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 66.8 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Taillon (5.12 ERA) |
| 3 | Michael Busch CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 3/10 30% | 66.0 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Arrighetti (4.92 ERA) |
| 4 | Carson Kelly CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 30 | 3/10 30% | 57.2 | Average bat · facing vulnerable Arrighetti (4.92 ERA) |
| 5 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 1/10 10% | 55.9 | Below-avg bat · facing vulnerable Arrighetti (4.92 ERA) |
| 6 | Dansby Swanson CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 3/10 30% | 55.8 | Below-avg bat · facing vulnerable Arrighetti (4.92 ERA) |
| 7 | Isaac Paredes HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 3/10 30% | 54.1 | Below-avg bat · facing vulnerable Taillon (5.12 ERA) |
| 8 | Alex Bregman CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 53.9 | Average bat · facing vulnerable Arrighetti (4.92 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from HOU @ CHC — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Busch | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | HOU @ CHC |
| 2 | Carson Kelly | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | HOU @ CHC |
| 3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 1/10 10% | HOU @ CHC |
| 4 | Dansby Swanson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | HOU @ CHC |
Why:
- 4 batters from HOU @ CHC → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 25% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.08x (EV $-0.92/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 0% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 4% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, Cam Smith
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-22T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢OTHER-btts_no | 62% | 8 | $+4.49 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 12 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 15% | 26 | $-62.93 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 15% (26 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 50% (12 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 50% (10 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 58% (19 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays5 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 5 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williamsvs PHI | Pitches Thrown | MORE 95.5 | 105.0 | +9.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Justin Wrobleskivs MIL | Pitches Thrown | MORE 95.5 | 105.0 | +9.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Logan Gilbertvs KC | Pitches Thrown | MORE 92.5 | 100.7 | +8.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Justin Wrobleskivs MIL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 32.609 | +6.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Justin Wrobleskivs MIL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.7 | +2.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ SF | Davis Martin vs Trevor McDonald | 0.657 | 52% | 1.93x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ BOS | Connor Prielipp vs Payton Tolle | 0.689 | 50% | 1.99x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ PHI | Gavin Williams vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.791 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ MIL | Justin Wrobleski vs Logan Henderson | 0.944 | 39% | 2.57x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| COL @ AZ | Tomoyuki Sugano vs Michael Soroka | 1.004 | 37% | 2.73x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ NYY | Nick Martinez vs Gerrit Cole | 1.025 | 36% | 2.79x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ ATL | Miles Mikolas vs TBD | 1.6 | 80% | 1.25x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ BAL | Jack Flaherty vs Chris Bassitt | 1.353 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ CIN | Kyle Leahy vs Chris Paddack | 1.307 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ SD | Jeffrey Springs vs Walker Buehler | 1.266 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ KC | Logan Gilbert vs Noah Cameron | 1.254 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ TOR | Bubba Chandler vs Kevin Gausman | 1.178 | 69% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (3 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
0 WON · 0 LOST · 3 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Aaron Judge Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | -7.7pp | 🟡 LIVE |
| MLB | Kyle Schwarber Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | -2.1pp | 🟡 LIVE |
| MLB | Bryce Harper Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | +0.9pp | 🟡 LIVE |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-22 18:06:07 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-22.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-22.json