STOP-LOSS YELLOW — 7-day portfolio P&L = $-103.97. Halve real-money stakes today.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 34 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| James McCann AZ also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (9/9) | +40pp | SD @ AZ |
| Mickey Moniak COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TB @ COL |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ CHC |
| Andruw Monasterio BOS also locks: Hits | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Andy Pages LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ LAD |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ SEA |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ TEX |
| Gunnar Henderson BAL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ BAL |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Kyle Karros COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TB @ COL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Andruw Monasterio · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 George Springer · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 James McCann · Total Bases 100%🟢 Mickey Moniak · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Osleivis Basabe SF | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | TEX @ SF |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| George Springer TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ TOR |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Bryce Eldridge SF | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ SF |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Cooper Pratt MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Javier Báez DET | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Javier Báez DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Andruw Monasterio · Hits+Runs+RBIsOsleivis Basabe · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIsGeorge Springer · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1151 🔴 Demons / 254 🟢 Goblins / 47 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 6/10 60% | 74.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Irvin (5.56 recent ERA) |
| 2 | CJ Abrams🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 3/10 30% | 73.9 | Solid bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Painter (5.2 |
| 3 | Brandon Nimmo TEX | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 5/10 50% | 72.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Whisenhunt (7.64 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Junior Caminero TB | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 6/10 60% | 72.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.22 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Hunter Goodman COL | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 1/10 10% | 72.6 | Average bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Martinez (4.58 |
| 6 | Jac Caglianone KC | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 70.3 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Kremer (4.94 ERA) |
| 7 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 65 | 5/10 50% | 69.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Lauer (4.71 ERA) |
| 8 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 4/10 40% | 68.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · tough matchup — Lopez (ace, 3.69 |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ PHI |
| 2 | CJ Abrams | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | PHI @ WSH |
| 3 | Brandon Nimmo | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SF @ TEX |
Why:
- 3 separate games (WSH @ PHI / PHI @ WSH / SF @ TEX) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.63x (EV $-0.37/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 9% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 36% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ PHI |
| 2 | CJ Abrams | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | PHI @ WSH |
| 3 | Brandon Nimmo | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SF @ TEX |
| 4 | Junior Caminero | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | COL @ TB |
Why:
- Add Junior Caminero at COL @ TB
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.70x (EV $-0.30/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 25% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Yordan Alvarez, Daulton Varsho, Jose Altuve, Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes, Andrés Giménez, Andy Pages, Mookie Betts
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 5 Demons + 14 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIL @ PIT
🔴 DEMAndruw Monasterio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CWS @ BOS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIL @ PIT
🔴 DEMAndruw Monasterio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CWS @ BOS
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ CHC
🟢 GOBJames McCann Total Bases MORE 0.5
9/9 L10 (100%) · SD @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
39.2% combined
EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIL @ PIT
🔴 DEMAndruw Monasterio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CWS @ BOS
🔴 DEMGeorge Springer Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · HOU @ TOR
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ CHC
🟢 GOBJames McCann Total Bases MORE 0.5
9/9 L10 (100%) · SD @ AZ
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-05T05:37.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 80% | 111 | $+6.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 111 | $+3.70 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 59 | $-3.57 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 762 | $-3.00 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 223 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 34% | 731 | $-23.90 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (731 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (223 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (762 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (59 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-0430 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ BOS | Sean Burke vs Sonny Gray | 0.841 | 43% | 2.32x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ CLE | Christian Scott vs Tanner Bibee | 0.845 | 43% | 2.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ NYY | Andre Pallante vs Will Warren | 1.023 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ ATL | Eury Pérez vs Bryce Elder | 1.058 | 35% | 2.88x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ COL | Nick Martinez vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 1.062 | 35% | 2.89x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ AZ | Casey Mize vs Mitch Bratt | 1.079 | 34% | 2.94x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ PHI | Jake Irvin vs Andrew Painter | 1.611 | 80% | 1.25x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ CIN | Jacob Lopez vs Rhett Lowder | 1.414 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ KC | Dean Kremer vs Noah Cameron | 1.38 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ CHC | Eric Lauer vs Shota Imanaga | 1.272 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ TEX | Carson Whisenhunt vs Cody Bradford | 1.223 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ BAL | Reid Detmers vs Trevor Rogers | 1.189 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-05 06:32:43 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-05.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-05.json