Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-8.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 6 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 28 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL also locks: Hitter Strikeouts | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ COL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Masataka Yoshida BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ BOS |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ ATL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Tyler Locklear · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Brewer Hicklen · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Francisco Alvarez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Jake McCarthy · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Locklear AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Tommy White ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | MIN @ ATH |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ MIA |
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ BOS |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ BOS |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAD @ NYM |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Nolan Arenado AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Tyler Locklear · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrewer Hicklen · Hits+Runs+RBIsTommy White · Total BasesIsaac Collins · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 7 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1167 🔴 Demons / 255 🟢 Goblins / 41 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riley Greene DET | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 4/10 40% | 69.5 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing average Wacha |
| 2 | Kevin McGonigle DET | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 3/10 30% | 59.9 | Above-avg bat · facing average Wacha |
| 3 | Salvador Perez🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 5/10 50% | 48.3 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Mize (ace, |
| 4 | Lane Thomas🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 4/10 40% | 43.6 | Average bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · tough matchup — Mize (ace, 3.14 ERA) |
| 5 | Zach McKinstry DET | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 3/10 30% | 42.2 | Below-avg bat · facing average Wacha |
| 6 | Carter Jensen KC | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 5/10 50% | 40.2 | Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Mize (ace, 3.14 ERA) |
| 7 | Isaac Collins KC | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 5/10 50% | 37.0 | Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Mize (ace, 3.14 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from DET @ KC — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salvador Perez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | DET @ KC |
| 2 | Lane Thomas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | DET @ KC |
| 3 | Carter Jensen | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | DET @ KC |
| 4 | Isaac Collins | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | DET @ KC |
Why:
- 4 batters from DET @ KC → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.64x (EV $-0.36/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 22% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Nick Loftin
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-25T05:32.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 148 | $+5.20 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 58% | 133 | $+2.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 48% | 77 | $-9.01 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 881 | $-13.30 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 209 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1099 | $-27.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1099 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (209 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (881 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 48% (77 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays4 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Griffinvs AZ | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Ryan Weathersvs PHI | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Hunter Brownvs CWS | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Tanner Bibeevs TB | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2430 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ BOS | Dylan Cease vs Sonny Gray | 0.678 | 51% | 1.97x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ DET | Michael Wacha vs Casey Mize | 0.781 | 46% | 2.18x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ NYM | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLean | 0.866 | 42% | 2.38x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ TB | Tanner Bibee vs Nick Martinez | 0.915 | 40% | 2.5x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | Bryan Woo vs Nathan Eovaldi | 1.051 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ MIA | Randy Vásquez vs Eury Pérez | 1.071 | 34% | 2.92x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ MIL | Ryan Feltner vs Robert Gasser | 1.532 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ MIN | Brady Basso vs TBD | 1.358 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ WSH | Mitch Bratt vs Foster Griffin | 1.283 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ STL | Hunter Greene vs Andre Pallante | 1.27 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ PHI | Ryan Weathers vs TBD | 1.23 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ PIT | Shota Imanaga vs Paul Skenes | 1.189 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-25 09:14:52 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-25.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-25.json