Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+10.25. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 2 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ KC |
| Freddie Freeman LAD also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SD @ LAD |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ PHI |
| Bryce Harper PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ PHI |
| Carson Benge NYM also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ SD |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ SD |
| Lane Thomas KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ KC |
| Alex Freeland LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ LAD |
| Bo Bichette NYM also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATL @ NYM |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~31% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.17/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Freddie Freeman · Total Bases 70%🔴 Josh Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Mauricio Dubón · Total Bases 70%🟢 Carter Jensen · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Brandon Marsh · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons8 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ KC |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ LAD |
| Josh Lowe LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BOS @ LAA |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ LAD |
| Mookie Betts LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 3.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ LAD |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ SD |
| Bryce Harper PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | KC @ PHI |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Carter Jensen · Hits+Runs+RBIsFreddie Freeman · Total BasesJosh Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIsMauricio Dubón · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 283 🔴 Demons / 65 🟢 Goblins / 15 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 4/10 40% | 75.8 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Avila (4.57 ERA) |
| 2 | Bryce Harper🔥 HOT PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 6/10 60% | 75.5 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Avila (4.57 |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani🔥 HOT LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 3/10 30% | 73.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Sears (4. |
| 4 | Jac Caglianone🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 3/10 30% | 73.5 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Nola |
| 5 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 4/10 40% | 72.2 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Pérez |
| 6 | Freddie Freeman LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 7/10 70% | 64.2 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sears (4.50 ERA) |
| 7 | Brandon Marsh🔥 HOT PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 4/10 40% | 63.7 | Average bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Avila (4.57 ERA) |
| 8 | Fernando Tatis Jr.🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 4/10 40% | 63.3 | Solid bat · on hot streak (2% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Sheehan |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ PHI |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | SD @ LAD |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | LAD @ SD |
Why:
- 3 separate games (KC @ PHI / SD @ LAD / LAD @ SD) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.72x (EV $-0.28/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 11% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ PHI |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | SD @ LAD |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | LAD @ SD |
| 4 | Carson Benge | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | ATL @ NYM |
Why:
- Add Carson Benge at ATL @ NYM
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 42% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.38x (EV $-0.62/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 17% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from KC @ PHI — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ PHI |
| 2 | Bryce Harper | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | KC @ PHI |
| 3 | Brandon Marsh | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ PHI |
Why:
- 3 batters from KC @ PHI → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.64x (EV $-0.36/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 10% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 35% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Andy Pages, Xander Bogaerts, Oswald Peraza, Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 10 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMFreddie Freeman Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ LAD
🔴 DEMJosh Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BOS @ LAA
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+1.94–$+4.29/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMFreddie Freeman Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ LAD
🔴 DEMJosh Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BOS @ LAA
🟢 GOBMauricio Dubón Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYM @ ATL
🟢 GOBCarter Jensen Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PHI @ KC
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
30.9% combined
EV $+1.78–$+4.56/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMFreddie Freeman Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ LAD
🔴 DEMJosh Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BOS @ LAA
🔴 DEMMauricio Dubón Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ ATL
🟢 GOBCarter Jensen Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PHI @ KC
🟢 GOBBrandon Marsh Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · KC @ PHI
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d8 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-05T22:33.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 100% | 5 | $+5.00 |
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 171 | $+6.30 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 57% | 89 | $+29.51 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 57% | 14 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 51% | 172 | $+0.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1104 | $-18.60 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 237 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 40% | 1273 | $-26.70 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 40% (1273 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (237 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1104 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Tie Breaks — 51% (172 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ SEA | Trey Yesavage vs Emerson Hancock | 0.821 | 44% | 2.27x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ TEX | Casey Mize vs Kumar Rocker | 0.877 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ ATL | Nolan McLean vs Martín Pérez | 0.912 | 40% | 2.49x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ LAA | Ranger Suarez vs Ryan Johnson | 1.032 | 36% | 2.81x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ HOU | Mason Englert vs Peter Lambert | 1.039 | 35% | 2.83x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ AZ | Brandon Sproat vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.127 | 32% | 3.09x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ LAD | JP Sears vs Emmet Sheehan | 1.535 | 78% | 1.27x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ COL | Tyler Mahle vs Tanner Gordon | 1.483 | 77% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ WSH | Bubba Chandler vs Cade Cavalli | 1.45 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ CHC | Matthew Liberatore vs Javier Assad | 1.432 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ KC | Aaron Nola vs Luinder Avila | 1.423 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ CLE | Chris Murphy vs Tanner Bibee | 1.275 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-05 15:49:29 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-05.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-05.json