Money Slate · 2026-07-09

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-37.20. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	-$1.42	2W / 5L	5 live	🚨 SMOKED
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	—	no slate today
PORTFOLIO	-$1.42	2W / 5L	15 live	29% hit

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks17 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Brandon Lowe PIT	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	MIL @ PIT
Eugenio Suárez CIN	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CHC @ CIN
James Outman DET	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	PHI @ DET
Kyle Schwarber PHI	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	DET @ PHI
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CIN @ CHC
Brandon Marsh PHI	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	DET @ PHI
Bryan Reynolds PIT	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIL @ PIT
Carson Benge NYM also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	BOS @ NYM
Gabriel Moreno AZ	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	LAD @ AZ
Kevin McGonigle DET	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	PHI @ DET
Liam Hicks MIA also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	CLE @ MIA
Mauricio Dubón ATL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	STL @ ATL

Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~58% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$10.52/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 90%🔴 Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Eugenio Suárez · Hitter Strikeouts 100%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Lane Thomas KC	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	90% (9/10)	+50.0pp	BAL @ KC
Liam Hicks MIA	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	80% (8/10)	+40.0pp	CLE @ MIA
Ketel Marte AZ	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	LAD @ AZ
Gabriel Moreno AZ	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	LAD @ AZ
Garrett Mitchell MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	80% (8/10)	+40.0pp	PIT @ MIL
Otto Lopez MIA	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	CLE @ MIA
Ezequiel Duran TEX	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	HOU @ TEX
Nolan Arenado AZ	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	LAD @ AZ
Brice Turang MIL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	PIT @ MIL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	56% (5/9)	+15.6pp	CWS @ ATH
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH	Hits 🔴 DEMON	1.5	56% (5/9)	+15.6pp	CWS @ ATH
Jordan Walker STL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	80% (8/10)	+40.0pp	ATL @ STL

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Lane Thomas · Total BasesLiam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIsKetel Marte · Total BasesGarrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 747 🔴 Demons / 172 🟢 Goblins / 15 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Pete Alonso BAL	1.5	MORE	47	4/10 40%	71.5	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Peterson (5.14 ERA)
2	Miguel Vargas CWS	1.5	MORE	55	5/10 50%	70.7	Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sandoval (4.50 ERA)
3	Kody Clemens🔥 HOT MIN	1.5	MORE	49	7/10 70%	69.1	Solid bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Williams (4.
4	Josh Bell🔥 HOT MIN	1.5	MORE	46	6/10 60%	66.7	Average bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Williams (4
5	Samuel Basallo BAL	1.5	MORE	36	3/10 30%	65.6	Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Peterson (5.14 ERA)
6	Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC	1.5	MORE	55	7/10 70%	65.2	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Rogers
7	Blaze Alexander BAL	1.5	MORE	40	3/10 30%	64.5	Solid bat · facing vulnerable Peterson (5.14 ERA)
8	Anthony Seigler BOS	1.5	MORE	44	4/10 40%	63.6	Solid bat · facing vulnerable Kay (5.24 ERA)

High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)

All 3 from CHC @ BAL — bigger upside, bigger variance.

#	Player	Stat	Line	Side	L10	Game
1	Pete Alonso	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	4/10 40%	CHC @ BAL
2	Samuel Basallo	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	3/10 30%	CHC @ BAL
3	Blaze Alexander	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	3/10 30%	CHC @ BAL

Why:

3 batters from CHC @ BAL → correlated
If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together

📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)

Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 33% · need 57.7% per leg

Expected payout: 0.33x (EV $-0.67/$1)

Hit	P(k)	Pays
3/3	4%	3.0x
2/3	22%	1.0x

Auto-faded (caught by gates):

Kahlil Watson, Travis Bazzana, Wilyer Abreu, Braden Montgomery, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman

🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 7 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST

2-pick

3.0–5.0xpayout range

56.0% combined

EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1

Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.

🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIN

🔴 DEMPete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · BAL @ CHC

$5 → $15–$25

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚖️ BALANCED

4-pick

6.0–10.8xpayout range

45.4% combined

EV $+1.72–$+3.90/$1

2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.

🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIN

🔴 DEMPete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · BAL @ CHC

🟢 GOBSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · BOS @ CWS

🟢 GOBAnthony Seigler Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · CWS @ BOS

$5 → $30–$54

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

🚀 HUNGRY

5-pick

9.0–18.0xpayout range

31.8% combined

EV $+1.86–$+4.72/$1

Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.

🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIN

🔴 DEMPete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · BAL @ CHC

🔴 DEMAnthony Seigler Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · CWS @ BOS

🟢 GOBSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · BOS @ CWS

🟢 GOBChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · MIN @ CLE

$5 → $45–$90

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-10T05:35.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	69%	185	$+7.10
🟡UNKNOWN	55%	96	$+16.86
🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks	52%	187	$+0.90
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	43%	1189	$-17.50
🔴MLB-Total Bases	41%	258	$-46.00
🔴Tennis-Total Games	39%	1369	$-29.10

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1369 picks)
🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (258 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1189 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Tie Breaks — 52% (187 picks)

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted

Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.

Pitcher	Stat	Side	Proj	Edge	Signal	Why
Trevor Rogersvs CHC	Earned Runs Allowed	MORE 2.5	5.9	+3.4pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-0830 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	1/1	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
NYY @ TB	Paul Blackburn vs Drew Rasmussen	0.761	47%	2.14x	⚡ Kalshi NO
MIL @ STL	Logan Henderson vs Andre Pallante	0.9	41%	2.46x	⚡ Kalshi NO
SEA @ MIA	Bryce Miller vs Janson Junk	0.976	38%	2.65x	⚡ Kalshi NO
KC @ NYM	Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea	1.051	35%	2.86x	⚡ Kalshi NO
LAA @ TEX	Reid Detmers vs Nathan Eovaldi	1.092	34%	2.98x	⚡ Kalshi NO
BOS @ CWS	Patrick Sandoval vs Anthony Kay	1.206	30%	3.34x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
CHC @ BAL	David Peterson vs Trevor Rogers	1.508	78%	1.28x	⚡ Kalshi YES
ATL @ PIT	Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller	1.469	77%	1.3x	⚡ Kalshi YES
ATH @ DET	Jack Perkins vs Framber Valdez	1.375	75%	1.34x	⚡ Kalshi YES
AZ @ SD	Merrill Kelly vs Griffin Canning	1.358	74%	1.35x	⚡ Kalshi YES
PHI @ CIN	Jesús Luzardo vs Brady Singer	1.275	72%	1.39x	⚡ Kalshi YES
COL @ SF	Ryan Feltner vs TBD	1.223	71%	1.42x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

📋 Today's Results (2 locked)

Today's Results — Settled + Live

2 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.

Sport	Pick	Market	Edge	State
MLB	Griffin Conine ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+92.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Jakob Marsee ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+1.1pp	✅ WON

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-37.20 (66 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-07-09 22:36:18 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-09.json