| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks3 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Steven Kwan CLE | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ CLE |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-14T05:34.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 174 | $+7.00 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 94 | $+5.33 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 174 | $+0.60 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1043 | $-17.70 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 273 | $-57.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1279 | $-28.90 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1279 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (273 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1043 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Tie Breaks — 52% (174 picks)
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL @ NL | Dylan Cease vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.747 | 47% | 2.11x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL @ NL | Dylan Cease vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.747 | 53% | 1.9x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-14.json