Money Slate · 2026-07-30

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-3.00. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	-$5.00	1W / 6L	0 live	🚨 SMOKED
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	$0.00	0W / 0L	12 live	(early)
PORTFOLIO	-$5.00	1W / 6L	22 live	14% hit

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks17 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Jasson Domínguez NYY	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CHC @ NYY
Munetaka Murakami CWS also locks: Hitter Strikeouts	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	TB @ CWS
Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CIN @ PIT
Seiya Suzuki CHC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	NYY @ CHC
Jake Mangum PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	CIN @ PIT
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	CHC @ NYY
Andy Pages LAD	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	BOS @ LAD
Brandon Lowe PIT	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	CIN @ PIT
Chase Meidroth CWS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	TB @ CWS
Colson Montgomery CWS	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	TB @ CWS
Elly De La Cruz CIN	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	PIT @ CIN
Freddie Freeman LAD	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	BOS @ LAD

Suggested 4-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 1 Green Lock insurance. ~25% combined hit prob × ~12x = EV +$2.02/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Chase Meidroth · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Nick Gonzales · Total Bases 60%🔴 Seiya Suzuki · Hits+Runs+RBIs 60%🟢 Jasson Domínguez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons9 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Nick Gonzales PIT	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	CIN @ PIT
Seiya Suzuki CHC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYY @ CHC
Nick Gonzales PIT	Hits 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	CIN @ PIT
Victor Mesa Jr. TB	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	CWS @ TB
Chase Meidroth CWS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	TB @ CWS
Alex Bregman CHC	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYY @ CHC
Dane Myers CIN	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	PIT @ CIN
Nathaniel Lowe CIN	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	PIT @ CIN
Chase Meidroth CWS	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	TB @ CWS

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Nick Gonzales · Total BasesSeiya Suzuki · Hits+Runs+RBIsVictor Mesa Jr. · Hits+Runs+RBIsChase Meidroth · Hits+Runs+RBIs

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 663 🔴 Demons / 154 🟢 Goblins / 21 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Munetaka Murakami CWS	1.5	MORE	54	5/10 50%	73.5	Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Weathers (4.50 ERA)
2	Ryan Jeffers MIN	1.5	MORE	33	5/10 50%	67.4	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.95 ERA)
3	Jac Caglianone KC	1.5	MORE	37	3/10 30%	65.4	Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing average Ober
4	Kody Clemens MIN	1.5	MORE	46	5/10 50%	62.4	Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.95 ERA)
5	JJ Wetherholt STL	1.5	MORE	58	2/10 20%	62.3	Solid bat · facing vulnerable Assad (4.66 ERA)
6	Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC	1.5	MORE	57	6/10 60%	59.9	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Pallante (ace, 3.65 ERA)
7	Ben Rice NYY	1.5	MORE	53	4/10 40%	59.6	Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Burke (ace, 3.44 ERA)
8	Colson Montgomery CWS	1.5	MORE	43	3/10 30%	59.4	Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Weathers (4.50 ERA)

Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)

Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.

#	Player	Stat	Line	Side	L10	Game
1	Munetaka Murakami	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	5/10 50%	NYY @ CWS
2	JJ Wetherholt	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	2/10 20%	CHC @ STL
3	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	6/10 60%	STL @ CHC

Why:

3 separate games (NYY @ CWS / CHC @ STL / STL @ CHC) → zero same-game correlation
All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates

📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)

Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg

Expected payout: 0.52x (EV $-0.48/$1)

Hit	P(k)	Pays
3/3	6%	3.0x
2/3	34%	1.0x

Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)

Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.

#	Player	Stat	Line	Side	L10	Game
1	Munetaka Murakami	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	5/10 50%	NYY @ CWS
2	JJ Wetherholt	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	2/10 20%	CHC @ STL
3	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	6/10 60%	STL @ CHC
4	Ben Rice	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	4/10 40%	CWS @ NYY

Why:

Add Ben Rice at CWS @ NYY
4 separate games — still uncorrelated
Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary

📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)

Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 42% · need 55.0% per leg

Expected payout: 0.40x (EV $-0.60/$1)

Hit	P(k)	Pays
4/4	2%	6.0x
3/4	17%	1.5x

Auto-faded (caught by gates):

Josh Bell, Royce Lewis, Ryan Kreidler, Miguel Vargas, Braden Montgomery, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson

🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 4 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST

2-pick

3.0–5.0xpayout range

49.0% combined

EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1

Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.

🔴 DEMNick Loftin Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ KC

🔴 DEMSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · STL @ CHC

$5 → $15–$25

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚖️ BALANCED

4-pick

6.0–10.8xpayout range

44.1% combined

EV $+1.65–$+3.76/$1

2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.

🔴 DEMNick Loftin Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ KC

🔴 DEMSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · STL @ CHC

🟢 GOBBen Rice Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · CWS @ NYY

🟢 GOBRyan Jeffers Hits MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · KC @ MIN

$5 → $30–$54

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-31T05:35.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	74%	117	$+5.70
🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks	66%	101	$+3.30
🟡UNKNOWN	50%	44	$-6.44
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	48%	790	$-3.40
🔴MLB-Total Bases	40%	169	$-35.00
🔴Tennis-Total Games	38%	829	$-20.30

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (829 picks)
🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (169 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (790 picks)
🔴 UNKNOWN — 50% (44 picks)

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted

Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.

Pitcher	Stat	Side	Proj	Edge	Signal	Why
Andre Pallantevs CHC	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 22.5	27.125	+4.6pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Noah Cameronvs MIN	Earned Runs Allowed	MORE 2.5	5.6	+3.1pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2932 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	2/2	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
MIA @ NYM	Eury Pérez vs Nolan McLean	0.872	42%	2.39x	⚡ Kalshi NO
BOS @ ATH	Sonny Gray vs Mason Barnett	0.983	37%	2.67x	⚡ Kalshi NO
SF @ SD	TBD vs JP Sears	1.077	34%	2.93x	⚡ Kalshi NO
TEX @ TB	Cole Winn vs Shane McClanahan	1.164	31%	3.2x	⚡ Kalshi NO
NYY @ CWS	Ryan Weathers vs Sean Burke	1.184	31%	3.27x	⚡ Kalshi NO
CHC @ STL	Javier Assad vs Andre Pallante	1.223	29%	3.4x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
WSH @ ATL	Jake Irvin vs Grant Holmes	1.508	78%	1.28x	⚡ Kalshi YES
SEA @ LAD	Bryan Woo vs Roki Sasaki	1.347	74%	1.35x	⚡ Kalshi YES
KC @ MIN	Noah Cameron vs Bailey Ober	1.308	73%	1.37x	⚡ Kalshi YES
PIT @ CIN	Yohan Ramírez vs Rhett Lowder	1.278	72%	1.39x	⚡ Kalshi YES
CHC @ STL	Javier Assad vs Andre Pallante	1.223	71%	1.42x	⚡ Kalshi YES
NYY @ CWS	Ryan Weathers vs Sean Burke	1.184	69%	1.44x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

📋 Today's Results (1 locked)

Today's Results — Settled + Live

1 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.

Sport	Pick	Market	Edge	State
MLB	Jakob Marsee ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+1.1pp	✅ WON

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-3.00 (39 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-07-30 22:36:47 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-30.json