Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+9.66. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 1 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks20 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SD @ KC |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | COL @ CIN |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TOR @ CWS |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ SF |
| Jake Mangum PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ COL |
| Kyle Schwarber PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Kyle Teel CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ CWS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Esmerlyn Valdez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 80%🔴 Josh Jung · Total Bases 70%🟢 Eugenio Suárez · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Munetaka Murakami · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons13 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Josh Jung TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Kyle Karros COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CIN @ COL |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ KC |
| Justin Crawford PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ NYM |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Jared Young NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ NYM |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ CLE |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Esmerlyn Valdez · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrice Turang · Total BasesJosh Jung · Total BasesChase DeLauter · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 304 🔴 Demons / 90 🟢 Goblins / 47 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 7/10 70% | 74.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (14% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 2 | Yordan Alvarez🔥 HOT HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 5/10 50% | 73.5 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani🔥 HOT LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 4/10 40% | 73.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 4 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 4/10 40% | 72.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Nola |
| 5 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 4/10 40% | 72.6 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Scott (4.51 ERA) |
| 6 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 6/10 60% | 72.3 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (14% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 7 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 5/10 50% | 69.8 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 8 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 5/10 50% | 67.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Jared Young, Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh, Bryce Harper, Bo Bichette, Bryson Stott, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 15 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ PIT
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ PIT
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🟢 GOBEugenio Suárez Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · COL @ CIN
🟢 GOBMunetaka Murakami Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TOR @ CWS
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ PIT
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🔴 DEMJosh Jung Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · ATL @ TEX
🟢 GOBEugenio Suárez Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · COL @ CIN
🟢 GOBMunetaka Murakami Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TOR @ CWS
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-16T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 72% | 176 | $+7.60 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 53% | 174 | $+1.20 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 89 | $+3.32 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1004 | $-14.80 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 249 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1283 | $-31.50 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1283 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (249 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1004 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (89 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ PHI | Christian Scott vs Aaron Nola | 1.128 | 32% | 3.09x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ PHI | Christian Scott vs Aaron Nola | 1.128 | 68% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-16 10:42:04 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-16.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-16.json