Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-53.29. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 25 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 39 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
4 ranked
ELITE · +16.8pp
Paderborn vs Wolfsburg
2026-05-25 Paderborn v Wolfsburg · Match winner
$0
→ $0.00
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $11 total stake · 3 fires
Real Money Plan — Kalshi + PrizePicks (CA-legal)
| Sport | Pick | Market | Side | Tier | Edge | Stake | Max Payout | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Elly De La Cruz | Home run (Kalshi) | Will hit a home run | ELITE | +7.3pp | $5 | $38.46 | Fire on Kalshi → |
| MLB | Bryce Harper | Home run (Kalshi) | Will hit a home run | STRONG | +3.5pp | $3 | $18.75 | Fire on Kalshi → |
| MLB | Aaron Judge | Home run (Kalshi) | Will hit a home run | STRONG | +3.5pp | $3 | $11.11 | Fire on Kalshi → |
| TOTAL (3 fires) | $11 | $68.32 | ||||||
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
| Pick | Current | Open | Move | Raw Edge | Vig-Adj Edge | Price Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾Elly De La Cruz | 13¢ | 13¢ | +0.0pp | +7.3pp | +9.3pp | ⚪ flat |
| ⚾Bryce Harper | 15¢ | 14¢ | -1.0pp | +3.5pp | +4.3pp | 🟠 pricier 1-2¢ |
| ⚾Aaron Judge | 27¢ | 27¢ | +0.0pp | +3.5pp | +1.0pp | ⚪ flat |
Open vs current Kalshi YES-ask. Vig-Adj Edge applies favorite-longshot bias correction. Price Move: 🟢 cheaper = better entry now · 🔴 pricier = worse entry. Threshold ±3¢ big move, ±1¢ small move. 3 tracked tickers.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ MIL |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Adolis García PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ PHI |
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ STL |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ MIL |
| Junior Caminero TB | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ TB |
| Marcell Ozuna PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Spencer Steer CIN also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Trea Turner PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ PHI |
| Xavier Edwards MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ MIA |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~58% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$10.52/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Ketel Marte · Total Bases 90%🔴 Spencer Steer · Total Bases 80%🔴 Keibert Ruiz · Total Bases 80%🟢 Brice Turang · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Oneil Cruz · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | SF @ AZ |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ MIL |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Blake Dunn CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Kyle Schwarber PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ PHI |
| Ryan Kreidler MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ MIN |
| Spencer Steer CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SF @ AZ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ WSH |
| Joe Mack MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ MIA |
| Juan Soto NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CIN @ NYM |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Ketel Marte · Total BasesElly De La Cruz · Total BasesJake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIsKyle Schwarber · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 785 🔴 Demons / 205 🟢 Goblins / 28 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brice Turang MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 3/10 30% | 70.1 | Great bat 🔥 · facing BP-arm Liberatore (5.67 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Ian Happ CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 3/10 30% | 69.8 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Mlodzinski (4.66 ERA) |
| 3 | Michael Busch🔥 HOT CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 4/10 40% | 69.6 | Solid bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Mlodzinski (4 |
| 4 | Jackson Chourio MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 4/10 40% | 69.6 | Below-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Liberatore (5.67 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Ben Rice NYY | 0.5 | MORE | 52 | 6/10 60% | 68.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Wacha (ace, 3.87 ERA) |
| 6 | Paul Goldschmidt NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 3/10 30% | 66.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Wacha (ace, 3.87 ERA) |
| 7 | William Contreras MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 4/10 40% | 65.3 | Solid bat · facing BP-arm Liberatore (5.67 recent ERA) |
| 8 | Junior Caminero TB | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 6/10 60% | 64.6 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Bradish |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brice Turang | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | STL @ MIL |
| 2 | Michael Busch | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ CHC |
| 3 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | KC @ NYY |
Why:
- 3 separate games (STL @ MIL / PIT @ CHC / KC @ NYY) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.54x (EV $-0.46/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 7% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brice Turang | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | STL @ MIL |
| 2 | Michael Busch | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ CHC |
| 3 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | KC @ NYY |
| 4 | Junior Caminero | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | BAL @ TB |
Why:
- Add Junior Caminero at BAL @ TB
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.59x (EV $-0.41/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 22% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from STL @ MIL — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brice Turang | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | STL @ MIL |
| 2 | Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | STL @ MIL |
| 3 | William Contreras | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | STL @ MIL |
Why:
- 3 batters from STL @ MIL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 37% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.40x (EV $-0.60/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 5% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 26% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Andrew Vaughn, Aaron Judge, Vinnie Pasquantino, Carter Jensen, Isaac Collins
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d9 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-25T05:43.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 17% | 41 | $-111.10 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 17% (41 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-btts_no — 50% (12 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays3 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warrenvs KC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 33.727 | +6.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Carmen Mlodzinskivs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 28.343 | +5.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Merrill Kellyvs SF | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-2430 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ KC | Will Warren vs Michael Wacha | 0.797 | 45% | 2.22x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ SD | Jesús Luzardo vs Randy Vásquez | 0.93 | 40% | 2.53x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ BAL | Shane McClanahan vs Kyle Bradish | 0.96 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CHC @ PIT | Ben Brown vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 1.011 | 36% | 2.75x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ TOR | Janson Junk vs Trey Yesavage | 1.026 | 36% | 2.79x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ CWS | Zebby Matthews vs Anthony Kay | 1.063 | 34% | 2.89x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ LAD | Tanner Gordon vs Emmet Sheehan | 1.455 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ CLE | Zack Littell vs Tanner Bibee | 1.382 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ ATH | Luis Castillo vs Aaron Civale | 1.14 | 68% | 1.47x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ MIL | Matthew Liberatore vs Jacob Misiorowski | 1.102 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ NYM | Nick Lodolo vs Nolan McLean | 1.096 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SF | Merrill Kelly vs Landen Roupp | 1.081 | 66% | 1.51x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (2 uncorrelated)
2-leg parlay #1
MLBElly De La Cruz — Will hit a home run7.69x
MLBBryce Harper — Will hit a home run6.25x
Stake: $5PP Power Play: $67.50 (13.50x · DD)+25% boost: $84.38P(hit): 0%EV: -100.0%
💡 Kalshi doesn't parlay natively — fire on PrizePicks. Synthetic Kalshi roll-over (theoretical max if you re-staked each leg): $240.38
3-leg parlay #2
MLBElly De La Cruz — Will hit a home run7.69x
MLBBryce Harper — Will hit a home run6.25x
MLBAaron Judge — Will hit a home run3.70x
Stake: $5PP Power Play: $890.31 (178.06x · SDD)+25% boost: $1112.89P(hit): 0%EV: -100.0%
💡 Kalshi doesn't parlay natively — fire on PrizePicks. Synthetic Kalshi roll-over (theoretical max if you re-staked each leg): $890.31
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-25 09:12:37 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-25.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-25.json