| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks10 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich MIL also locks: Hitter Strikeouts, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TB @ MIL |
| Junior Caminero TB also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ TB |
| Chandler Simpson TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ TB |
| David Hamilton MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ MIL |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ MIL |
| Jake Bauers MIL also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ MIL |
| Taylor Walls TB | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ TB |
| Victor Mesa Jr. TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ TB |
| William Contreras MIL also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ MIL |
| Yandy Díaz TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ TB |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons3 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ MIL |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ MIL |
| William Contreras MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ MIL |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d5 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-25T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 76% | 67 | $+3.50 |
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 75% | 174 | $+8.80 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 47% | 554 | $-3.00 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 43% | 87 | $-13.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 42% | 1264 | $-21.00 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 42% (1264 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 43% (87 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 47% (554 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Sets — 75% (174 picks)
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-25.json