Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-12.36. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 6 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 16 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ SEA |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ HOU |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ KC |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Heliot Ramos SF also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ SF |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | WSH @ COL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Chase DeLauter · Total Bases 70%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ MIL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ MIL |
| Tsung-Che Cheng BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ BOS |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ BOS |
| A.J. Ewing NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ NYM |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SF @ KC |
| Nolan Arenado AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATH @ AZ |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIsGarrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIsTsung-Che Cheng · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1146 🔴 Demons / 250 🟢 Goblins / 60 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 4/10 40% | 78.6 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Sears (5.41 ERA) |
| 2 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 4/10 40% | 77.0 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sears (5.41 ERA) |
| 3 | James Wood🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 5/10 50% | 73.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 4 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 70.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 5 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 6/10 60% | 69.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 6 | Wilyer Abreu🔥 HOT BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 69.2 | Solid bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Baz |
| 7 | Mike Trout LAA | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 4/8 50% | 68.9 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 8 | Hunter Goodman COL | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 4/10 40% | 68.6 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Kyle Manzardo, Josh Bell, Brooks Lee, Cody Bellinger, Brandon Lowe, Daulton Varsho, Adley Rutschman, Jarren Duran
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 8 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ PIT
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ PIT
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CIN @ SEA
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · ATH @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
39.2% combined
EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ PIT
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ CLE
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CIN @ SEA
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · ATH @ AZ
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-20T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 72% | 169 | $+7.30 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 54% | 157 | $+1.30 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 53% | 93 | $+6.31 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 879 | $-12.50 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 41% | 237 | $-43.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 37% | 1224 | $-30.80 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 37% (1224 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (237 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (879 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 53% (93 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays5 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Eldervs SD | Pitches Thrown | MORE 77.5 | 95.0 | +17.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Bryce Eldervs SD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 20.5 | 27.781 | +7.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Emmet Sheehanvs PHI | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 32.719 | +5.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Freddy Peraltavs MIL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 25.5 | 29.064 | +3.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Freddy Peraltavs MIL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-1932 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ TOR | Nick Martinez vs Dylan Cease | 0.702 | 50% | 2.02x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ LAA | Kyle Leahy vs José Soriano | 0.907 | 40% | 2.48x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ CLE | Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee | 0.938 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ BOS | Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle | 1.008 | 36% | 2.74x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ TEX | Erick Fedde vs Jacob deGrom | 1.021 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CIN @ SEA | Andrew Abbott vs George Kirby | 1.053 | 35% | 2.87x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ COL | Andrew Alvarez vs Kyle Freeland | 1.518 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ AZ | Jeffrey Springs vs Mitch Bratt | 1.47 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ CHC | Jack Flaherty vs Jameson Taillon | 1.446 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ ATL | JP Sears vs Bryce Elder | 1.352 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ KC | Trevor McDonald vs Michael Wacha | 1.234 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ HOU | Janson Junk vs Ronel Blanco | 1.233 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-20 10:47:55 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-20.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-20.json