Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-31.97. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-14T05:34.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 174 | $+7.00 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 94 | $+5.33 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 174 | $+0.60 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1043 | $-17.70 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 273 | $-57.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1279 | $-28.90 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1279 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (273 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1043 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Tie Breaks — 52% (174 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL @ NL | Dylan Cease vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.747 | 47% | 2.11x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL @ NL | Dylan Cease vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.747 | 53% | 1.9x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-14 10:42:41 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-14.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-14.json