Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-8.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$2.00 | 2W / 4L | 0 live | · |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | -$2.00 | 2W / 4L | 22 live | 33% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Jake McCarthy COL also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ COL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Kyle Karros COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ COL |
| Michael Harris II ATL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | HOU @ CWS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Steven Kwan · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Jake McCarthy · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Esmerlyn Valdez · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Isaac Paredes · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ COL |
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Wyatt Langford TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ TEX |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIA |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ BOS |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ TEX |
| Tommy White ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | MIN @ ATH |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Jake McCarthy · Hits+Runs+RBIsVinnie Pasquantino · Hits+Runs+RBIsWyatt Langford · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1077 🔴 Demons / 237 🟢 Goblins / 35 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 3/10 30% | 79.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Bratt (5.30 ERA) |
| 2 | CJ Abrams🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 6/10 60% | 72.7 | Solid bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Bratt (5.30 |
| 3 | Heriberto Hernández MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 7/10 70% | 70.5 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Vásquez (6.77 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Curtis Mead WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 4/10 40% | 68.3 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Bratt (5.30 ERA) |
| 5 | Bryce Eldridge SF | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 5/10 50% | 67.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Johnson (4.61 ERA) |
| 6 | Heliot Ramos SF | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 3/10 30% | 66.6 | Average bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Johnson (4.61 ERA) |
| 7 | Casey Schmitt SF | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 5/10 50% | 64.8 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Johnson (4.61 ERA) |
| 8 | Fernando Tatis Jr.🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 5/10 50% | 63.6 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Pérez |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from AZ @ WSH — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | AZ @ WSH |
| 2 | CJ Abrams | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | AZ @ WSH |
| 3 | Curtis Mead | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | AZ @ WSH |
Why:
- 3 batters from AZ @ WSH → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.54x (EV $-0.46/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 7% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Zach Neto, Jorge Soler, Mike Trout, Nolan Schanuel, Drew Gilbert, Kyle Stowers, Otto Lopez, Gavin Sheets
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 4 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMTy France Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ SD
🔴 DEMAndruw Monasterio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ BOS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMTy France Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ SD
🔴 DEMAndruw Monasterio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ BOS
🟢 GOBGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ AZ
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMTy France Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ SD
🔴 DEMAndruw Monasterio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ BOS
🔴 DEMHeriberto Hernández Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ MIA
🟢 GOBGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ AZ
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ AZ
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-26T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 69% | 131 | $+4.90 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 59% | 111 | $+2.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 49% | 71 | $-5.56 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 44% | 726 | $-8.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 974 | $-22.60 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 37% | 198 | $-50.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 37% (198 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (974 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 44% (726 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 49% (71 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays5 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Griffinvs AZ | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Hunter Brownvs CWS | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.7 | +3.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Sean Burkevs HOU | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.7 | +2.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Ryan Weathersvs PHI | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.6 | +2.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Tanner Bibeevs TB | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.6 | +2.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2430 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ BOS | Dylan Cease vs Sonny Gray | 0.678 | 51% | 1.97x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ DET | Michael Wacha vs Casey Mize | 0.774 | 46% | 2.17x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ NYM | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLean | 0.866 | 42% | 2.38x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ TB | Tanner Bibee vs Nick Martinez | 0.915 | 40% | 2.5x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | Bryan Woo vs Nathan Eovaldi | 1.051 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ MIA | Randy Vásquez vs Eury Pérez | 1.071 | 34% | 2.92x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ MIL | Ryan Feltner vs Robert Gasser | 1.532 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ MIN | Brady Basso vs TBD | 1.358 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ WSH | Mitch Bratt vs Foster Griffin | 1.283 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ STL | Hunter Greene vs Andre Pallante | 1.27 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ PHI | Ryan Weathers vs TBD | 1.23 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ PIT | Shota Imanaga vs Paul Skenes | 1.189 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (2 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
2 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +69.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Richie Palacios ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.1pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-25 22:36:37 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-25.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-25.json