Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+16.40. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SD @ STL |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ ATL |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Spencer Torkelson DET | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | HOU @ DET |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | DET @ HOU |
| Bryce Eldridge SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SF |
| Christian Walker HOU | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ HOU |
| James Wood WSH also locks: Hitter Strikeouts, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ WSH |
| Kevin McGonigle DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | HOU @ DET |
| Luis Arraez SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SF |
| Samad Taylor SD also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 89% (8/9) | +29pp | STL @ SD |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYM @ CIN |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~28% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$4.60/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Bo Bichette · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Noelvi Marte · Hits+Runs+RBIs 67%🔴 Brandon Marsh · Total Bases 60%🟢 Alec Burleson · Hits 100%🟢 Drake Baldwin · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons10 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noelvi Marte CIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (6/9) | +26.7pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Blaze Jordan STL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SD @ STL |
| Blaze Jordan STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SD @ STL |
| Bo Bichette NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CIN @ NYM |
| Jung Hoo Lee SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SF |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | KC @ WSH |
| Bo Bichette NYM | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CIN @ NYM |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ MIA |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ STL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Noelvi Marte · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrandon Marsh · Total BasesBlaze Jordan · Hits+Runs+RBIsBo Bichette · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 888 🔴 Demons / 216 🟢 Goblins / 36 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto NYM | 0.5 | MORE | 52 | 6/10 60% | 80.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.14 recent ERA) |
| 2 | James Wood WSH | 0.5 | MORE | 55 | 9/10 90% | 77.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Avila (4.82 ERA) |
| 3 | Jac Caglianone KC | 0.5 | MORE | 48 | 6/10 60% | 74.2 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Littell (6.37 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Fernando Tatis Jr.🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 6/10 60% | 71.5 | Solid bat · on hot streak (2% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Leahy (6.58 recen |
| 5 | Curtis Mead WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 4/10 40% | 68.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Avila (4.82 ERA) |
| 6 | Bryce Eldridge SF | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 67.8 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Ritchie |
| 7 | Bo Bichette🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 7/10 70% | 67.3 | Average bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.14 recent ERA) |
| 8 | Marcus Semien🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 3/10 30% | 67.1 | Average bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.14 recent ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CIN @ NYM |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 9/10 90% | KC @ WSH |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ SD |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CIN @ NYM / KC @ WSH / STL @ SD) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 70% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.44x (EV +$0.44/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 32% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 47% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CIN @ NYM |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 9/10 90% | KC @ WSH |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ SD |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | MIA @ PHI |
Why:
- Add Kyle Schwarber at MIA @ PHI
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 70% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 2.00x (EV +$1.00/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 23% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 42% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from CIN @ NYM — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CIN @ NYM |
| 2 | Bo Bichette | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | CIN @ NYM |
| 3 | Marcus Semien | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CIN @ NYM |
Why:
- 3 batters from CIN @ NYM → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 53% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.81x (EV $-0.19/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 13% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 43% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Nathaniel Lowe, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Otto Lopez, Trea Turner, Liam Hicks
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d12 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-17T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 64% | 14 | $+5.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 63% | 60 | $+14.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 53% | 272 | $+1.60 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 53% | 230 | $+2.10 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 49% | 1381 | $-3.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 48% | 1479 | $-4.70 |
| 🔴MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 45% | 20 | $-1.50 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 14% (7 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 25% (8 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 35% (116 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 43% (113 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 6 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mizevs HOU | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 23.5 | 26.791 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-06-1630 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 3/3 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA @ AZ | Sam Aldegheri vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 0.72 | 49% | 2.05x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ HOU | Casey Mize vs Peter Lambert | 0.795 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ LAD | Shane McClanahan vs Shohei Ohtani | 0.909 | 40% | 2.48x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ STL | Bradgley Rodriguez vs Kyle Leahy | 0.939 | 39% | 2.56x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PIT @ ATH | Braxton Ashcraft vs Aaron Civale | 1.104 | 33% | 3.02x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| COL @ CHC | Sean Sullivan vs Javier Assad | 1.164 | 31% | 3.2x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ WSH | Luinder Avila vs Zack Littell | 1.571 | 79% | 1.26x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ ATL | Adrian Houser vs Grant Holmes | 1.365 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ BOS | Max Scherzer vs Jake Bennett | 1.342 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ PHI | Sandy Alcantara vs Andrew Painter | 1.304 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ NYY | Anthony Kay vs Carlos Rodón | 1.248 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BAL @ SEA | Kyle Bradish vs George Kirby | 1.218 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-17 09:15:03 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-17.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-17.json