STOP-LOSS YELLOW — 7-day portfolio P&L = $-148.64. Halve real-money stakes today.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 18 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 40 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
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Stay paper, build calibration data.
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Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
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PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andruw Monasterio BOS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ WSH |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ SEA |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ CIN |
| Jake Mangum PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIA @ ATL |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ MIN |
| Ty France SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | AZ @ SD |
| Zach Neto LAA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ LAA |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~24% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$3.76/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Ceddanne Rafaela · Total Bases 70%🔴 Miguel Amaya · Hits 60%🟢 CJ Abrams · Hitter Strikeouts 90%🟢 Cal Raleigh · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ CHC |
| Max Clark DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Javier Báez DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Javier Báez DET | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CLE |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CLE |
| William Contreras MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| David Hamilton MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIsCeddanne Rafaela · Total BasesMiguel Amaya · HitsMax Clark · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 741 🔴 Demons / 172 🟢 Goblins / 27 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 3/10 30% | 77.3 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Johnson (5.30 ERA) |
| 2 | Pete Alonso BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 3/10 30% | 71.6 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Johnson (5.30 ERA) |
| 3 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 3/10 30% | 65.4 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · tough matchup — Barnett (ace, 3.96 ER |
| 4 | Francisco Alvarez NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 3/10 30% | 65.4 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing average Griffin |
| 5 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 2/10 20% | 62.0 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · tough matchup — Barnett (ace, 3.9 |
| 6 | Francisco Lindor🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 4/10 40% | 62.0 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing average Griffin |
| 7 | Lawrence Butler🔥 HOT ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 5/10 50% | 60.2 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Abbott (4.70 ERA) |
| 8 | Gunnar Henderson BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 2/10 20% | 59.5 | Below-avg bat · facing vulnerable Johnson (5.30 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | ATH @ CIN |
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CLE @ NYM |
| 3 | Tyler Soderstrom | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATH |
Why:
- 3 separate games (ATH @ CIN / CLE @ NYM / CIN @ ATH) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 40% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.47x (EV $-0.53/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 6% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 29% | 1.0x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from LAA @ BAL — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | LAA @ BAL |
| 2 | Pete Alonso | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | LAA @ BAL |
| 3 | Gunnar Henderson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | LAA @ BAL |
Why:
- 3 batters from LAA @ BAL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 27% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.21x (EV $-0.79/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 2% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 16% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Mike Trout, Jackson Holliday, Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Dane Myers, José Ramírez
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-06T05:41.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 82% | 106 | $+6.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 68% | 106 | $+3.80 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 734 | $-3.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 44% | 50 | $-16.11 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 233 | $-55.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 34% | 683 | $-22.50 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (683 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (233 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 44% (50 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (734 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays3 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillovs BOS | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 27.632 | +5.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| David Petersonvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 26.769 | +4.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Andrew Abbottvs ATH | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-0530 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ CLE | Nolan McLean vs Foster Griffin | 0.82 | 44% | 2.27x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ SEA | Framber Valdez vs Bryce Miller | 0.96 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ CHC | Dylan Cease vs David Peterson | 1.076 | 34% | 2.93x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ KC | Bailey Ober vs Michael Wacha | 1.085 | 34% | 2.96x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ ATL | Janson Junk vs Martín Pérez | 1.162 | 31% | 3.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ CIN | Mason Barnett vs Andrew Abbott | 1.164 | 31% | 3.2x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ AZ | Walker Buehler vs Kohl Drake | 1.382 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ MIL | Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May | 1.377 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ BOS | Luis Castillo vs Ranger Suarez | 1.205 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ BAL | Ryan Johnson vs Brandon Young | 1.175 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ PHI | Miles Mikolas vs Cristopher Sánchez | 1.173 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ CIN | Mason Barnett vs Andrew Abbott | 1.164 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-06 09:14:32 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-06.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-06.json