Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-16.36. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 3 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks13 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewer Hicklen ATL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | SD @ ATL |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Ty France SD also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SD |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 83% (5/6) | +23pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | DET @ KC |
| Chandler Simpson TB also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ TB |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATL @ SD |
| Lane Thomas KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | DET @ KC |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ ATL |
| Rhys Hoskins CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIN @ CLE |
Suggested 4-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 1 Green Lock insurance. ~46% combined hit prob × ~12x = EV +$4.53/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Brewer Hicklen · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Brayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Victor Mesa Jr. · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Ty France · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewer Hicklen ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | SD @ ATL |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SD @ ATL |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SD |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SD @ ATL |
| Victor Mesa Jr. TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TOR @ TB |
| Austin Hedges CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Lane Thomas KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ KC |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Brewer Hicklen · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIsVinnie Pasquantino · Hits+Runs+RBIsRyan Jeffers · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 324 🔴 Demons / 66 🟢 Goblins / 16 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riley Greene DET | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 5/10 50% | 76.9 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Dobnak (5.60 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Drake Baldwin ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 75.6 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Canning (4.94 ERA) |
| 3 | Spencer Torkelson🔥 HOT DET | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 3/10 30% | 72.7 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Dobnak (5.60 |
| 4 | Junior Caminero TB | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 72.3 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Bieber (8.54 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Kevin McGonigle🔥 HOT DET | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 4/10 40% | 71.9 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Dobnak (5.60 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Dillon Dingler DET | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 3/10 30% | 71.3 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Dobnak (5.60 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 3/10 30% | 70.7 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Canning (4.94 ERA) |
| 8 | Jonathan Aranda TB | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 68.4 | Above-avg bat · facing BP-arm Bieber (8.54 recent ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from KC @ DET — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riley Greene | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | KC @ DET |
| 2 | Spencer Torkelson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | KC @ DET |
| 3 | Kevin McGonigle | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ DET |
| 4 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | KC @ DET |
Why:
- 4 batters from KC @ DET → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 38% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.30x (EV $-0.70/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 13% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets, Josh Bell, Daulton Varsho, Michael Massey
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 7 Demons + 5 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMBrewer Hicklen Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · SD @ ATL
🔴 DEMBrayan Rocchio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ CLE
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
51.8% combined
EV $+2.11–$+4.60/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMBrewer Hicklen Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · SD @ ATL
🔴 DEMBrayan Rocchio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ CLE
🟢 GOBTy France Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ SD
🟢 GOBChase DeLauter Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIN @ CLE
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
41.5% combined
EV $+2.73–$+6.46/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMBrewer Hicklen Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · SD @ ATL
🔴 DEMBrayan Rocchio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ CLE
🔴 DEMVictor Mesa Jr. Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ TB
🟢 GOBTy France Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ SD
🟢 GOBChase DeLauter Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIN @ CLE
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-23T05:38.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 169 | $+6.70 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 55% | 160 | $+1.60 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 87 | $+1.73 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 954 | $-14.80 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 223 | $-55.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1222 | $-30.20 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1222 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (223 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (954 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (87 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ DET | Randy Dobnak vs Troy Melton | 0.706 | 49% | 2.03x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ STL | Brandon Pfaadt vs Michael McGreevy | 1.023 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ CLE | Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams | 1.13 | 32% | 3.1x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ ATL | Griffin Canning vs Chris Sale | 1.168 | 31% | 3.22x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ TOR | Ian Seymour vs Shane Bieber | 1.332 | 26% | 3.79x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ TOR | Ian Seymour vs Shane Bieber | 1.332 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ ATL | Griffin Canning vs Chris Sale | 1.168 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CLE | Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams | 1.13 | 68% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ STL | Brandon Pfaadt vs Michael McGreevy | 1.023 | 64% | 1.56x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ DET | Randy Dobnak vs Troy Melton | 0.706 | 51% | 1.98x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-23 06:15:09 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-23.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-23.json