| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 31 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 41 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ PIT |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ SEA |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ CHC |
| Liam Hicks MIA also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SEA @ MIA |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ PIT |
| Carson Benge NYM also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ NYM |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ CIN |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ LAD |
| Kevin McGonigle DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ DET |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ ATH |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 83% (5/6) | +43.3pp | DET @ ATH |
| TJ Rumfield COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Anthony Seigler BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Brooks Lee MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Kyle Karros COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Byron Buxton MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ MIA |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ WSH |
| Luke Keaschall MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Josh Bell MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ MIL |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1144 🔴 Demons / 237 🟢 Goblins / 38 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett Mitchell🔥 HOT MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 7/10 70% | 68.3 | Solid bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 2 | Jackson Chourio MIL | 2.5 | MORE | 59 | 4/10 40% | 64.7 | Solid bat · hitting it hard |
| 3 | Jake Bauers MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 3/10 30% | 59.8 | Solid bat · hitting it hard |
| 4 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 4/10 40% | 59.0 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Gasser (ace, 3.29 ERA) |
| 5 | Cooper Pratt MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 1/10 10% | 57.9 | Above-avg bat |
| 6 | Brice Turang MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 6/10 60% | 56.1 | Solid bat |
| 7 | JJ Wetherholt STL | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 5/10 50% | 48.1 | Solid bat · tough matchup — Gasser (ace, 3.29 ERA) |
| 8 | Christian Yelich MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 3/10 30% | 47.9 | Below-avg bat |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett Mitchell | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | STL @ MIL |
| 2 | Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | 2.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | STL @ MIL |
| 3 | Jake Bauers | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | STL @ MIL |
| 4 | Cooper Pratt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 1/10 10% | STL @ MIL |
- 4 batters from STL @ MIL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 1% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 11% | 1.5x |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-07T05:33.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 175 | $+6.30 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 57% | 94 | $+30.45 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 51% | 178 | $+0.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1163 | $-17.90 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 233 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1329 | $-28.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Pitcher Ks | 38% | 8 | $-2.00 |
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 38% (8 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1329 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (233 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1163 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillovs MIN | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 25.5 | 28.934 | +3.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Shane Bazvs CHC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 109 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-0616 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA @ TEX | José Soriano vs Jacob deGrom | 0.865 | 42% | 2.38x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ DET | J.T. Ginn vs Tarik Skubal | 0.903 | 40% | 2.47x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ CIN | Zack Wheeler vs Andrew Abbott | 0.913 | 40% | 2.49x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ SF | Spencer Miles vs Trevor McDonald | 0.922 | 40% | 2.51x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ MIA | TBD vs Max Meyer | 0.926 | 40% | 2.53x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ PIT | Hurston Waldrep vs Paul Skenes | 1.036 | 36% | 2.82x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC @ BAL | Matthew Boyd vs Shane Baz | 1.405 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ WSH | Tatsuya Imai vs Andrew Alvarez | 1.363 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SD | Zac Gallen vs Germán Márquez | 1.353 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ LAD | Michael Lorenzen vs Justin Wrobleski | 1.293 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ STL | Jacob Misiorowski vs Matt Svanson | 1.229 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ STL | Robert Gasser vs Hunter Dobbins | 1.198 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-07.json