Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-27.91. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ SEA |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TB @ BOS |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ SEA |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Heliot Ramos SF also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ SF |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | WSH @ ATH |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Wyatt Langford TEX also locks: Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ TEX |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 80%🔴 Brayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Bryan Reynolds · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ ATL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ ATH |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ SF |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ KC |
| Josh Jung TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Luke Keaschall MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CHC @ MIN |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIsEsmerlyn Valdez · Total BasesMauricio Dubón · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1031 🔴 Demons / 225 🟢 Goblins / 49 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 6/10 60% | 80.1 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Feltner (5.13 |
| 2 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 5/10 50% | 77.0 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Feltner (5.13 ERA) |
| 3 | Spencer Steer🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 6/10 60% | 75.0 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 4 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 3/10 30% | 74.3 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Feltner (5.13 E |
| 5 | Jac Caglianone KC | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 6/10 60% | 73.6 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Márquez (5.70 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Shohei Ohtani🔥 HOT LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 5/10 50% | 73.2 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 7 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 72.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Young |
| 8 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 7/10 70% | 71.4 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from COL @ CIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | COL @ CIN |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | COL @ CIN |
| 3 | Spencer Steer | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | COL @ CIN |
| 4 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | COL @ CIN |
Why:
- 4 batters from COL @ CIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.70x (EV $-0.30/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 25% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Romy Gonzalez, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Bo Bichette, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 5 Demons + 13 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ MIL
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ MIL
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SF @ SEA
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CLE @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ MIL
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🔴 DEMBrayan Rocchio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · PIT @ CLE
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SF @ SEA
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CLE @ PIT
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-19T05:39.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 72% | 169 | $+7.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 53% | 164 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 53% | 93 | $+6.31 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 897 | $-13.50 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 41% | 242 | $-44.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 37% | 1241 | $-31.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 37% (1241 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (242 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (897 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 53% (93 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays5 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasservs MIA | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 25.5 | 30.196 | +4.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Andre Pallantevs AZ | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 21.5 | 25.951 | +4.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 102 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Eury Pérezvs MIL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 29.5 | 33.262 | +3.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Foster Griffinvs ATH | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 112 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Nathan Eovaldivs ATL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ BOS | Shane McClanahan vs Sonny Gray | 0.72 | 49% | 2.05x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ NYY | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Cam Schlittler | 0.82 | 44% | 2.27x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ SEA | Robbie Ray vs Logan Gilbert | 0.831 | 44% | 2.3x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ TOR | Sean Burke vs Trey Yesavage | 0.898 | 41% | 2.45x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ AZ | Andre Pallante vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 0.928 | 40% | 2.53x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ HOU | Brandon Young vs Hunter Brown | 0.932 | 39% | 2.54x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN @ COL | Hunter Greene vs Ryan Feltner | 1.408 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ MIL | Eury Pérez vs Robert Gasser | 1.399 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CHC | Zebby Matthews vs Shota Imanaga | 1.355 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ KC | Germán Márquez vs Noah Cameron | 1.29 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ ATH | Foster Griffin vs Jacob Lopez | 1.28 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ NYY | TBD vs TBD | 1.262 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-19 10:41:45 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-19.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-19.json