Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-9.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 9 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 31 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (6/6) | +40pp | BAL @ PHI |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ SEA |
| Hao-Yu Lee DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ DET |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ WSH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ CHC |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ KC |
| Ernie Clement TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ TOR |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ AZ |
| Jake Mangum PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ SEA |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Vaughn Grissom · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Cal Raleigh · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ AZ |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ PHI |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ PHI |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Vaughn Grissom LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIL @ LAA |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ TEX |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
| Nolan Schanuel LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ LAA |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ BOS |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ CHC |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIsBryan De La Cruz · Total BasesJeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIsVaughn Grissom · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1171 🔴 Demons / 258 🟢 Goblins / 58 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 4/10 40% | 73.5 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Greene (4.69 ERA) |
| 2 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 4/10 40% | 72.2 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard |
| 3 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 70.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 5/10 50% | 69.7 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing average Martinez |
| 5 | Francisco Alvarez🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 3/10 30% | 69.4 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Junk |
| 6 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 6/10 60% | 69.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Warren (4.59 ERA) |
| 7 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 64 | 3/10 30% | 68.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Elder (ace, 3.97 ERA) |
| 8 | Drake Baldwin ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 64 | 6/10 60% | 67.6 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Griffin (ace, 3.92 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ PIT |
| 2 | Willson Contreras | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | LAD @ BOS |
| 3 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TEX @ HOU |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CIN @ PIT / LAD @ BOS / TEX @ HOU) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.56x (EV $-0.44/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ PIT |
| 2 | Willson Contreras | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | LAD @ BOS |
| 3 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TEX @ HOU |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TB @ CWS |
Why:
- Add Munetaka Murakami at TB @ CWS
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.54x (EV $-0.46/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 20% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Ian Happ, Paul Goldschmidt, Carson Kelly, José Caballero, Dansby Swanson, Ryan O'Hearn, Dane Myers, Kyle Schwarber
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 5 Demons + 14 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ AZ
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TEX @ HOU
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ AZ
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TEX @ HOU
🟢 GOBBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
6/6 L10 (100%) · BAL @ PHI
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYY @ CHC
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
51.2% combined
EV $+3.61–$+8.22/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ AZ
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TEX @ HOU
🔴 DEMVaughn Grissom Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIL @ LAA
🟢 GOBBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
6/6 L10 (100%) · BAL @ PHI
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYY @ CHC
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-31T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 74% | 117 | $+5.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 66% | 101 | $+3.30 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 50% | 44 | $-6.44 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 790 | $-3.40 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 169 | $-35.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 829 | $-20.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (829 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (169 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (790 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 50% (44 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-3020 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ TOR | Kyle Leahy vs Dylan Cease | 0.766 | 46% | 2.15x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ LAD | Ranger Suarez vs Edgardo Henriquez | 0.876 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ SD | Carson Whisenhunt vs Bradgley Rodriguez | 0.963 | 38% | 2.62x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ HOU | Nathan Eovaldi vs Hunter Brown | 1.014 | 36% | 2.76x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ BAL | TBD vs Brandon Young | 1.031 | 36% | 2.8x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ TB | Erick Fedde vs Nick Martinez | 1.051 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ LAA | Shane Drohan vs Ryan Johnson | 1.275 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ CIN | Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene | 1.273 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ NYM | Janson Junk vs Freddy Peralta | 1.25 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CHC | Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga | 1.235 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ CLE | Mitch Bratt vs Tanner Bibee | 1.229 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ ATL | Foster Griffin vs Bryce Elder | 1.102 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-31 06:25:43 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-31.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-31.json