Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-38.85. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | +$0.54 | 5W / 7L | 3 live | · |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | +$0.54 | 5W / 7L | 14 live | 42% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
1 ranked
ELITE · +21.4pp
Junior de Barranquilla vs Atletico Nacional
2026-06-03 Junior de Barranquilla v Atletico Nacional · Match winner
$0
→ $0.00
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks18 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jung Hoo Lee SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ SF |
| Brent Rooker ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ ATH |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | HOU @ PIT |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ MIL |
| Ernie Clement TOR also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ TOR |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ SD |
| Jac Caglianone KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ KC |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ HOU |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ TOR |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ ATH |
| Rafael Devers SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SF |
| Ryan McMahon NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ NYY |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~31% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.17/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Travis Bazzana · Total Bases 70%🔴 Oneil Cruz · Total Bases 70%🔴 Isiah Kiner-Falefa · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Jung Hoo Lee · Hits 100%🟢 Brent Rooker · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons11 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ CLE |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ PIT |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ PIT |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ PHI |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ BOS |
| Ian Happ CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATH @ CHC |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ PIT |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ LAD |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ BOS |
| Bryce Eldridge SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SF |
| Ernie Clement TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ TOR |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Travis Bazzana · Total BasesOneil Cruz · Total BasesBrandon Marsh · Total BasesIsiah Kiner-Falefa · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 832 🔴 Demons / 204 🟢 Goblins / 32 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byron Buxton MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 4/10 40% | 67.2 | Average bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Fedde (4.59 ERA) |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 3/10 30% | 66.9 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Bradley (ace, 3.76 ERA) |
| 3 | Juan Soto🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 66.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (14% HR rate) · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Kirby (ace |
| 4 | Luke Raley SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 4/10 40% | 62.2 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Peralta (ace, 3.68 ERA) |
| 5 | Dominic Canzone🔥 HOT SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 6/10 60% | 61.6 | Solid bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Peralta (ace, |
| 6 | Austin Martin🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 2/10 20% | 57.7 | Average bat · on hot streak (2% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Fedde (4.59 ERA) |
| 7 | Victor Caratini🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 2/10 20% | 57.2 | Average bat · on hot streak (3% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Fedde (4.59 ERA) |
| 8 | Carson Benge🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 56.1 | Solid bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.4 |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | MIN @ CWS |
| 2 | Carson Benge | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SEA @ NYM |
| 3 | Randy Arozarena | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | NYM @ SEA |
Why:
- 3 separate games (MIN @ CWS / SEA @ NYM / NYM @ SEA) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 33% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.33x (EV $-0.67/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 4% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 22% | 1.0x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from CWS @ MIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byron Buxton | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CWS @ MIN |
| 2 | Austin Martin | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CWS @ MIN |
| 3 | Victor Caratini | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CWS @ MIN |
Why:
- 3 batters from CWS @ MIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 27% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.20x (EV $-0.80/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 2% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 15% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Josh Bell, Bo Bichette
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d13 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-04T05:38.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 65% | 49 | $+13.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 59% | 34 | $+6.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 50% | 171 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 987 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games | 50% | 1070 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 50% | 210 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitching Outs | 50% | 6 | $+1.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 14% (7 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 29% (7 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 32% (92 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Walks Allowed — 44% (9 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 4 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehlervs PHI | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 21.5 | 26.974 | +5.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-06-0230 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅UNKNOWN / ? | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅UNKNOWN / PAPER | 4/4 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / TRUST | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ TB | Troy Melton vs Nick Martinez | 0.705 | 49% | 2.02x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ CIN | Stephen Kolek vs Chase Burns | 0.764 | 47% | 2.15x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PIT @ HOU | Paul Skenes vs Spencer Arrighetti | 0.795 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ PHI | Walker Buehler vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.893 | 41% | 2.44x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ SEA | Freddy Peralta vs George Kirby | 0.95 | 39% | 2.58x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ WSH | Max Meyer vs Andrew Alvarez | 0.973 | 38% | 2.64x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ MIN | Erick Fedde vs Taj Bradley | 1.255 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ AZ | Shohei Ohtani vs Zac Gallen | 1.252 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ MIL | Logan Webb vs TBD | 1.236 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ CHC | Jeffrey Springs vs Colin Rea | 1.219 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ LAA | Michael Lorenzen vs Walbert Ureña | 1.069 | 66% | 1.52x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TEX @ STL | MacKenzie Gore vs Andre Pallante | 1.061 | 65% | 1.53x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (5 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
5 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | George Kirby ⚪ Under 34.5 pitcher fantasy score | MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) | -6.3pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Nick Martinez ⚪ Under 27.5 pitcher fantasy score | MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) | -4.1pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Paul Skenes ⚪ Under 39.5 pitcher fantasy score | MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) | -3.3pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Andrew Alvarez ⚪ Over 4.0 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | +1.9pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | George Kirby ⚪ Under 5.5 pitcher strikeouts | MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts (PrizePicks) | -1.1pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-03 22:38:38 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-03.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-03.json