Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+14.52. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 19 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 29 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SD @ KC |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ SEA |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ AZ |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | COL @ CIN |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ AZ |
| James Outman DET | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAA @ DET |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ AZ |
| Xavier Edwards MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Heliot Ramos SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ SF |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Nolan Arenado · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Xavier Edwards · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Esmerlyn Valdez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Carter Jensen · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | STL @ AZ |
| Xavier Edwards MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ SF |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Josh Jung TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ MIA |
| Jose Altuve HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ HOU |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATH @ WSH |
| Tommy Edman LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ LAD |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Nolan Arenado · Hits+Runs+RBIsXavier Edwards · Hits+Runs+RBIsEsmerlyn Valdez · Total BasesBrice Turang · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1077 🔴 Demons / 250 🟢 Goblins / 38 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Caminero TB | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 4/10 40% | 61.9 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda TB | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 5/10 50% | 61.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 3 | Wilyer Abreu BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 4/10 40% | 59.1 | Average bat · hitting it hard |
| 4 | Yandy Díaz TB | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 4/10 40% | 57.0 | Above-avg bat |
| 5 | Jarren Duran BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 2/10 20% | 53.8 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 6 | Anthony Seigler BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 3/10 30% | 49.9 | Average bat |
| 7 | Caleb Durbin🔥 HOT BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 4/10 40% | 49.0 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) |
| 8 | Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 5/10 50% | 46.0 | Below-avg bat |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from TB @ BOS — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilyer Abreu | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TB @ BOS |
| 2 | Jarren Duran | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TB @ BOS |
| 3 | Anthony Seigler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | TB @ BOS |
| 4 | Caleb Durbin | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TB @ BOS |
Why:
- 4 batters from TB @ BOS → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 32% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.19x (EV $-0.81/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 1% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 9% | 1.5x |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-17T05:31.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 72% | 179 | $+7.70 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 54% | 177 | $+1.30 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 89 | $+3.32 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1022 | $-14.80 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 240 | $-46.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1298 | $-32.20 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1298 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (240 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1022 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (89 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Colevs LAD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 30.926 | +4.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ BOS | Griffin Jax vs Jake Bennett | 0.794 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ ATL | Cal Quantrill vs Chris Sale | 0.84 | 43% | 2.32x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ TOR | Anthony Kay vs Spencer Miles | 0.919 | 40% | 2.51x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ SEA | Landen Roupp vs Bryce Miller | 0.936 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ LAA | Troy Melton vs Reid Detmers | 0.991 | 37% | 2.69x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ KC | Michael King vs Seth Lugo | 1.013 | 36% | 2.75x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ NYY | Roki Sasaki vs Gerrit Cole | 1.466 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CHC | Bailey Ober vs Colin Rea | 1.454 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ CLE | Jared Jones vs Gavin Williams | 1.263 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ AZ | Michael McGreevy vs Merrill Kelly | 1.193 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ COL | Brady Singer vs Gabriel Hughes | 1.124 | 68% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ MIL | Sandy Alcantara vs Logan Henderson | 1.114 | 67% | 1.49x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-17 10:40:09 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-17.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-17.json