STOP-LOSS YELLOW — 7-day portfolio P&L = $-102.15. Halve real-money stakes today.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 25 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 35 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ STL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ SEA |
| A.J. Ewing NYM | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ NYM |
| James Wood WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ WSH |
| Jordan Walker STL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ STL |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Nathan Lukes TOR also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Samad Taylor SD also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 83% (5/6) | +23pp | BAL @ SD |
| Stuart Fairchild CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 83% (5/6) | +23pp | DET @ CLE |
| Ernie Clement TOR also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | BAL @ SD |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~35% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.06/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Alec Burleson · Total Bases 80%🔴 Chase Meidroth · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Kody Clemens · Total Bases 70%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 A.J. Ewing · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | AZ @ CIN |
| Alec Burleson STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIN @ STL |
| Kody Clemens MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | STL @ MIN |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Tristan Peters CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ BOS |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | MIA @ PIT |
| Tristan Peters CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ BAL |
| Alec Burleson STL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ STL |
| Jordan Walker STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ STL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Chase Meidroth · Hits+Runs+RBIsNoelvi Marte · Hits+Runs+RBIsAlec Burleson · Total BasesKody Clemens · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 959 🔴 Demons / 247 🟢 Goblins / 33 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 4/10 40% | 77.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Castillo (4.91 ERA) |
| 2 | Corbin Carroll🔥 HOT AZ | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 4/10 40% | 76.2 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Lowder (5 |
| 3 | Byron Buxton MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 5/10 50% | 74.1 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Liberatore (5.25 ERA) |
| 4 | Jackson Holliday BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 3/10 30% | 73.6 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Vásquez (6.57 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Fernando Tatis Jr.🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 5/10 50% | 73.1 | Solid bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Gibson (7.78 rece |
| 6 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 2/10 20% | 73.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Pérez |
| 7 | Jared Young🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 72.8 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Pérez |
| 8 | Pete Alonso BAL | 0.5 | MORE | 58 | 8/10 80% | 72.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Vásquez (6.57 recent ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SEA @ WSH |
| 2 | Corbin Carroll | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ AZ |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | BAL @ SD |
Why:
- 3 separate games (SEA @ WSH / CIN @ AZ / BAL @ SD) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.56x (EV $-0.44/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SEA @ WSH |
| 2 | Corbin Carroll | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ AZ |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | BAL @ SD |
| 4 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | ATL @ NYM |
Why:
- Add Juan Soto at ATL @ NYM
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 38% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.29x (EV $-0.71/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 13% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Ben Rice, Andrés Giménez, Gunnar Henderson, Chase DeLauter, Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 5 Demons + 8 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMAlec Burleson Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMChase Meidroth Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAD @ CWS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
50.4% combined
EV $+2.02–$+4.44/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMAlec Burleson Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMChase Meidroth Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAD @ CWS
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ SEA
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ TOR
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
35.3% combined
EV $+2.18–$+5.35/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMAlec Burleson Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMChase Meidroth Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAD @ CWS
🔴 DEMKody Clemens Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · STL @ MIN
🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ SEA
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ TOR
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d13 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-13T05:34.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 67% | 15 | $+6.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 65% | 66 | $+17.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 57% | 35 | $+5.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 197 | $+1.80 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 51% | 247 | $+0.70 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitching Outs | 50% | 6 | $+1.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 1192 | $+0.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 14% (7 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 25% (8 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (77 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 41% (115 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays13 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatorevs MIN | Pitches Thrown | MORE 86.5 | 95.0 | +8.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Sean Burkevs LAD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 29.415 | +6.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Randy Vásquezvs BAL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 19.5 | 25.935 | +6.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Luis Castillovs WSH | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 23.5 | 29.009 | +5.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Aaron Nolavs MIL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 31.464 | +5.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Joey Cantillovs DET | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 28.548 | +4.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Jacob deGromvs BOS | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 32.5 | 35.831 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Matthew Liberatorevs MIN | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 27.697 | +3.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Trey Gibsonvs SD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS 20.5 | 17.465 | -3.0pp | 🌱 LIMITED STARTS | Limited starts — only 4 games in 2026 (rookie/call-up) |
| Matthew Liberatorevs MIN | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.1 | +2.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-06-1230 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX @ BOS | Jacob deGrom vs Ranger Suarez | 0.818 | 44% | 2.27x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ TOR | Cam Schlittler vs Kevin Gausman | 0.865 | 42% | 2.37x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CHC @ SF | Ben Brown vs Trevor McDonald | 0.932 | 39% | 2.54x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ CLE | Tarik Skubal vs Joey Cantillo | 0.937 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ LAA | Griffin Jax vs José Soriano | 0.947 | 39% | 2.58x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ BAL | Randy Vásquez vs Trey Gibson | 0.971 | 38% | 2.64x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ WSH | Luis Castillo vs Cade Cavalli | 1.44 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ MIN | Matthew Liberatore vs Connor Prielipp | 1.435 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ MIL | Aaron Nola vs Shane Drohan | 1.296 | 73% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ ATH | Kyle Freeland vs Joey Estes | 1.281 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ NYM | Martín Pérez vs Sean Manaea | 1.268 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ KC | Mike Burrows vs Noah Cameron | 1.242 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-13 10:48:32 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-13.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-13.json