Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-9.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 9 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 31 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (6/6) | +40pp | BAL @ PHI |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ SEA |
| Hao-Yu Lee DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ DET |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ WSH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ KC |
| Ernie Clement TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ TOR |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ AZ |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ COL |
| Jake Mangum PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ SEA |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Vaughn Grissom · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Cal Raleigh · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ AZ |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ PHI |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ PHI |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Vaughn Grissom LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIL @ LAA |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ TEX |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
| Nolan Schanuel LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ LAA |
| Eduardo Valencia DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | ATH @ DET |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ BOS |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIsBryan De La Cruz · Total BasesJeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIsVaughn Grissom · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1160 🔴 Demons / 254 🟢 Goblins / 57 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 6/10 60% | 69.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA) |
| 2 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 4/10 40% | 66.3 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Imanaga (ace, 3.64 ERA) |
| 3 | Michael Conforto CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 30 | 3/10 30% | 61.5 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA) |
| 4 | Michael Busch CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 64 | 4/10 40% | 60.1 | Average bat · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA) |
| 5 | Nico Hoerner🔥 HOT CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 4/10 40% | 58.2 | Average bat · on hot streak (2% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA) |
| 6 | Trent Grisham NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 1/10 10% | 56.9 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Imanaga (ace, 3.64 ERA) |
| 7 | Alex Bregman🔥 HOT CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 6/10 60% | 55.4 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Warren (4.58 ERA) |
| 8 | Jasson Domínguez NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 5/10 50% | 40.9 | Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Imanaga (ace, 3.64 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from NYY @ CHC — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | NYY @ CHC |
| 2 | Michael Conforto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | NYY @ CHC |
| 3 | Michael Busch | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | NYY @ CHC |
| 4 | Nico Hoerner | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | NYY @ CHC |
Why:
- 4 batters from NYY @ CHC → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 42% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.43x (EV $-0.57/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 3% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 17% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Ian Happ, Paul Goldschmidt, José Caballero, Dansby Swanson
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-31T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 74% | 117 | $+5.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 66% | 101 | $+3.30 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 50% | 44 | $-6.44 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 790 | $-3.40 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 169 | $-35.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 829 | $-20.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (829 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (169 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (790 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 50% (44 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays4 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Eldervs WSH | Pitches Thrown | MORE 84.5 | 95.0 | +10.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Foster Griffinvs ATL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.7 | +3.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 108 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Bryce Eldervs WSH | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Brandon Youngvs PHI | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-3020 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ TOR | Kyle Leahy vs Dylan Cease | 0.766 | 46% | 2.15x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ LAD | Ranger Suarez vs Edgardo Henriquez | 0.876 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ SD | Carson Whisenhunt vs Bradgley Rodriguez | 0.963 | 38% | 2.62x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ HOU | Nathan Eovaldi vs Hunter Brown | 1.014 | 36% | 2.76x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ BAL | TBD vs Brandon Young | 1.031 | 36% | 2.8x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ TB | Erick Fedde vs Nick Martinez | 1.051 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ ATH | TBD vs Jeffrey Springs | 1.284 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ LAA | Shane Drohan vs Ryan Johnson | 1.275 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ CIN | Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene | 1.273 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ NYM | Janson Junk vs Freddy Peralta | 1.25 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CHC | Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga | 1.235 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ CLE | Mitch Bratt vs Tanner Bibee | 1.229 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-31 10:56:16 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-31.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-31.json