Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-3.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 7 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 29 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ SEA |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ CHC |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ WSH |
| Griffin Conine MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ MIA |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ WSH |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Josh Naylor SEA also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ SEA |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ MIN |
| Ty France SD also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ SD |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CIN @ PIT |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~34% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.86/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Francisco Alvarez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Nick Loftin · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Seiya Suzuki · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Ben Rice · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Cal Raleigh · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
| Nick Loftin KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ KC |
| Brett Baty NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ MIA |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Tyrone Taylor NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | STL @ CHC |
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATH @ BOS |
| Ty France SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SF @ SD |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ SEA |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ CHC |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CIN @ PIT |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Francisco Alvarez · Hits+Runs+RBIsNick Loftin · Hits+Runs+RBIsHeriberto Hernández · Total BasesNick Gonzales · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 663 🔴 Demons / 154 🟢 Goblins / 21 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 73.5 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Weathers (4.50 ERA) |
| 2 | Ryan Jeffers MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 5/10 50% | 67.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.95 ERA) |
| 3 | Jac Caglianone KC | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 3/10 30% | 65.4 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing average Ober |
| 4 | Kody Clemens MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 5/10 50% | 62.4 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.95 ERA) |
| 5 | JJ Wetherholt STL | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 2/10 20% | 62.3 | Solid bat · facing vulnerable Assad (4.66 ERA) |
| 6 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 6/10 60% | 59.9 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Pallante (ace, 3.65 ERA) |
| 7 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 4/10 40% | 59.6 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Burke (ace, 3.44 ERA) |
| 8 | Colson Montgomery CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 3/10 30% | 59.4 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Weathers (4.50 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | NYY @ CWS |
| 2 | JJ Wetherholt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CHC @ STL |
| 3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ CHC |
Why:
- 3 separate games (NYY @ CWS / CHC @ STL / STL @ CHC) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.52x (EV $-0.48/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 6% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 34% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | NYY @ CWS |
| 2 | JJ Wetherholt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CHC @ STL |
| 3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ CHC |
| 4 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CWS @ NYY |
Why:
- Add Ben Rice at CWS @ NYY
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 42% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.40x (EV $-0.60/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 17% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Josh Bell, Royce Lewis, Ryan Kreidler, Miguel Vargas, Braden Montgomery, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 4 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMNick Loftin Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ KC
🔴 DEMSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · STL @ CHC
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
44.1% combined
EV $+1.65–$+3.76/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMNick Loftin Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ KC
🔴 DEMSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · STL @ CHC
🟢 GOBBen Rice Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CWS @ NYY
🟢 GOBRyan Jeffers Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · KC @ MIN
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-30T05:37.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 132 | $+5.20 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 100 | $+3.40 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 50% | 44 | $-6.44 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 844 | $-3.20 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 168 | $-32.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 977 | $-21.50 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (977 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (168 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (844 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 50% (44 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallantevs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 27.125 | +4.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Noah Cameronvs MIN | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.6 | +3.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2932 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ NYM | Eury Pérez vs Nolan McLean | 0.872 | 42% | 2.39x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ ATH | Sonny Gray vs Mason Barnett | 0.983 | 37% | 2.67x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ SD | TBD vs JP Sears | 1.077 | 34% | 2.93x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ TB | Cole Winn vs Shane McClanahan | 1.164 | 31% | 3.2x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ CWS | Ryan Weathers vs Sean Burke | 1.184 | 31% | 3.27x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CHC @ STL | Javier Assad vs Andre Pallante | 1.223 | 29% | 3.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ ATL | Jake Irvin vs Grant Holmes | 1.508 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ LAD | Bryan Woo vs Roki Sasaki | 1.347 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ MIN | Noah Cameron vs Bailey Ober | 1.308 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ CIN | Yohan Ramírez vs Rhett Lowder | 1.278 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | Javier Assad vs Andre Pallante | 1.223 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CWS | Ryan Weathers vs Sean Burke | 1.184 | 69% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-30 11:04:26 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-30.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-30.json