Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+22.83. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 5 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 15 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks13 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | KC @ STL |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ ATL |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BOS @ TOR |
| Zack Gelof ATH also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Bryce Eldridge SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SF |
| Christian Yelich MIL also locks: Hitter Strikeouts | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ MIL |
| Jacob Wilson ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Nathan Lukes TOR also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ TOR |
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Rafael Devers SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SF |
| Denzer Guzman LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 88% (7/8) | +28pp | ATH @ LAA |
| Braden Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | NYY @ CWS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Paul Goldschmidt · Total Bases 80%🔴 Zack Gelof · Total Bases 80%🔴 Bo Bichette · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Alec Burleson · Hits 100%🟢 Drake Baldwin · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward BAL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ BAL |
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Zack Gelof ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Kody Clemens MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TEX @ MIN |
| Bryce Eldridge SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SF |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ BAL |
| Cole Young SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ SEA |
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Jung Hoo Lee SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SF |
| Bo Bichette NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | PHI @ NYM |
| Bryson Stott PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | STL @ KC |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Taylor Ward · Hits+Runs+RBIsPaul Goldschmidt · Total BasesZack Gelof · Total BasesKody Clemens · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 573 🔴 Demons / 144 🟢 Goblins / 20 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byron Buxton🔥 HOT MIN | 0.5 | MORE | 41 | 8/10 80% | 73.9 | Solid bat · on hot streak (15% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Leiter (4. |
| 2 | Willson Contreras🔥 HOT BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 5/10 50% | 67.8 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Yesavage (ac |
| 3 | Kody Clemens🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 7/10 70% | 66.6 | Average bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Leiter (4. |
| 4 | Josh Bell🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 6/10 60% | 64.0 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Leiter (4 |
| 5 | Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 63.6 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing average Gray |
| 6 | Royce Lewis🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 63.6 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Leiter (4 |
| 7 | Jackson Chourio🔥 HOT MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 7/10 70% | 61.8 | Solid bat · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Messick (ace |
| 8 | Trevor Larnach🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 30 | 2/10 20% | 56.7 | Average bat · on hot streak (3% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Leiter (4.58 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from TEX @ MIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byron Buxton | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | TEX @ MIN |
| 2 | Kody Clemens | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | TEX @ MIN |
| 3 | Josh Bell | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | TEX @ MIN |
| 4 | Royce Lewis | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TEX @ MIN |
Why:
- 4 batters from TEX @ MIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 65% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.60x (EV +$0.60/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 17% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 39% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Manzardo, Brandon Nimmo, Ezequiel Duran
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 3 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMKody Clemens Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TEX @ MIN
🔴 DEMJackson Chourio Total Bases MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ MIL
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
44.1% combined
EV $+1.65–$+3.76/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMKody Clemens Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TEX @ MIN
🔴 DEMJackson Chourio Total Bases MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ MIL
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BOS @ TOR
🟢 GOBNathan Lukes Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BOS @ TOR
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d9 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-18T05:40.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 64% | 14 | $+5.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 63% | 60 | $+14.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 53% | 277 | $+1.70 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 237 | $+1.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 49% | 89 | $-19.39 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 49% | 1517 | $-4.30 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 49% | 1404 | $-2.40 |
| 🔴MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 45% | 20 | $-1.50 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 35% (110 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Fantasy — 45% (20 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 49% (1404 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 49% (1517 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-06-1730 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 3/3 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ MIL | Parker Messick vs Shane Drohan | 0.852 | 43% | 2.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BOS | Trey Yesavage vs Sonny Gray | 0.919 | 40% | 2.51x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ ATL | Landen Roupp vs Martín Pérez | 0.989 | 37% | 2.69x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ ATH | TBD vs Gage Jump | 1.042 | 35% | 2.84x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ TEX | Joe Ryan vs Jack Leiter | 1.098 | 33% | 3.0x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ KC | Matthew Liberatore vs Noah Cameron | 1.168 | 31% | 3.22x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ NYY | Sean Burke vs Ryan Weathers | 1.368 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYM @ PHI | Sean Manaea vs Aaron Nola | 1.277 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BAL @ SEA | Shane Baz vs Bryan Woo | 1.224 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ KC | Matthew Liberatore vs Noah Cameron | 1.168 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ TEX | Joe Ryan vs Jack Leiter | 1.098 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ ATH | TBD vs Gage Jump | 1.042 | 65% | 1.54x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-18 10:37:35 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-18.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-18.json