Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-47.80. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 0 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks22 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Jeffers MIN | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | CHC @ MIN |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ NYY |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ SF |
| Wyatt Langford TEX also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ PIT |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATH @ WSH |
| Casey Schmitt SF | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SEA @ SF |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs ⚪ STANDARD | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +30pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | STL @ AZ |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~32% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.35/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Luke Keaschall · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Josh Jung · Total Bases 70%🔴 Jose Altuve · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Ben Rice · Hits 90%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hits 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons13 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Josh Jung TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Jose Altuve HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ HOU |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Kyle Karros COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CIN @ COL |
| Luke Keaschall MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CHC @ MIN |
| Justin Crawford PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ TEX |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ NYM |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Jared Young NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ NYM |
| Ben Rice NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ NYY |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Brice Turang · Total BasesJosh Jung · Total BasesJose Altuve · Hits+Runs+RBIsChase DeLauter · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 64 🔴 Demons / 0 🟢 Goblins / 51 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 7/10 70% | 74.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (14% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani🔥 HOT LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 4/10 40% | 73.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 3 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 6/10 60% | 72.1 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 5/10 50% | 70.2 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 5 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 4/10 40% | 70.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 6 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 5/10 50% | 69.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 7 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 67.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 8 | Heliot Ramos🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 4/10 40% | 67.7 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Walker | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | AZ @ STL |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 2.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | COL @ CIN |
| 3 | Bryan Reynolds | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CLE @ PIT |
Why:
- 3 separate games (AZ @ STL / COL @ CIN / CLE @ PIT) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 40% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.45x (EV $-0.55/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 5% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 30% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Walker | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | AZ @ STL |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 2.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | COL @ CIN |
| 3 | Bryan Reynolds | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CLE @ PIT |
| 4 | Kyle Karros | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CIN @ COL |
Why:
- Add Kyle Karros at CIN @ COL
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.48x (EV $-0.52/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 3% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 20% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Bryce Harper, Bo Bichette, Bryson Stott, Mookie Betts, Brandon Lowe, Drake Baldwin, Josh Jung, Alejandro Kirk
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 6 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ MIN
🔴 DEMJosh Jung Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · ATL @ TEX
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
45.4% combined
EV $+1.72–$+3.90/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ MIN
🔴 DEMJosh Jung Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · ATL @ TEX
🟢 GOBHeliot Ramos Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · SEA @ SF
🟢 GOBBrayan Rocchio Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · PIT @ CLE
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
31.8% combined
EV $+1.86–$+4.72/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ MIN
🔴 DEMJosh Jung Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · ATL @ TEX
🔴 DEMJose Altuve Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BAL @ HOU
🟢 GOBHeliot Ramos Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · SEA @ SF
🟢 GOBBrayan Rocchio Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · PIT @ CLE
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-15T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 71% | 178 | $+7.60 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 53% | 179 | $+1.10 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 93 | $+3.65 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1025 | $-15.30 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 261 | $-53.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1296 | $-31.80 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1296 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (261 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1025 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (93 picks)
NRFI/YRFI predictions not yet available for today.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-15 10:40:46 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-15.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-15.json