| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD also locks: Hitter Strikeouts | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SD |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ LAD |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ NYY |
| Chase Meidroth CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Dustin Harris SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ MIL |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ MIL |
| Joey Ortiz MIL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ MIL |
| Randal Grichuk CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Sam Antonacci CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ CWS |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons12 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ ATL |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Joey Ortiz MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Spencer Jones NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Jonny DeLuca TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ TB |
| Luis Campusano SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-07T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 79% | 29 | $+1.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 77% | 56 | $+3.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 57% | 7 | $+1.50 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 49% | 194 | $-0.20 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 43% | 395 | $-5.70 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 41% | 22 | $-6.18 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 350 | $-76.00 |
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (350 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 41% (22 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 43% (395 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 49% (194 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahlevs LAD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 21.5 | 24.642 | +3.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Tyler Mahlevs LAD | Pitching Outs | MORE 13.5 | 15.6 | +2.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-10-064 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ NYY | Nick Martinez vs Max Fried | 0.847 | 43% | 2.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ CWS | Daniel Espino vs Sean Newcomb | 1.04 | 35% | 2.83x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ ATL | Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Mahle | 1.1 | 33% | 3.0x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ SD | TBD vs Walker Buehler | 1.324 | 27% | 3.76x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ SD | TBD vs Walker Buehler | 1.324 | 73% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ ATL | Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Mahle | 1.1 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CLE @ CWS | Daniel Espino vs Sean Newcomb | 1.04 | 65% | 1.55x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TB @ NYY | Nick Martinez vs Max Fried | 0.847 | 57% | 1.75x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-07.json