Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-12.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 6 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 28 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SD |
| Joey Ortiz MIL also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Jonathan Aranda TB | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TB |
| Randal Grichuk CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Teoscar Hernández LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ LAD |
| William Contreras MIL also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ NYY |
| Brenton Doyle CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Dustin Harris SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~32% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.35/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Joey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Jackson Merrill · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Chase Meidroth · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Jonathan Aranda · Hitter Strikeouts 90%🟢 Teoscar Hernández · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons14 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Joey Ortiz MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Spencer Jones NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Mookie Betts LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ LAD |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ ATL |
| Braden Montgomery CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Jackson Merrill · Hits+Runs+RBIsJoey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIsSpencer Jones · Hits+Runs+RBIsMookie Betts · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 7 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 305 🔴 Demons / 51 🟢 Goblins / 18 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 4/10 40% | 55.9 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Messick (ace, 3.15 ERA) |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 3/10 30% | 53.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Messick (ace, 3.15 ERA) |
| 3 | Kyle Teel CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 3/10 30% | 47.9 | Average bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Messick (ace, 3.15 ERA) |
| 4 | Chase DeLauter🔥 HOT CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 4/10 40% | 45.9 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · tough matchup — Smith (ace, 2.45 ERA) |
| 5 | Jo Adell CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 3/10 30% | 44.1 | Average bat · tough matchup — Smith (ace, 2.45 ERA) |
| 6 | Angel Martínez🔥 HOT CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 5/10 50% | 43.8 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · tough matchup — Smith (ace, 2.45 ERA) |
| 7 | Steven Kwan CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 4/10 40% | 38.5 | Average bat · tough matchup — Smith (ace, 2.45 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from CWS @ CLE — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase DeLauter | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CWS @ CLE |
| 2 | Jo Adell | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CWS @ CLE |
| 3 | Angel Martínez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CWS @ CLE |
| 4 | Steven Kwan | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CWS @ CLE |
Why:
- 4 batters from CWS @ CLE → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 40% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.37x (EV $-0.63/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 15% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
José Ramírez, Travis Bazzana, Colson Montgomery
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays1 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 3 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMChase Meidroth Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS
🔴 DEMBraden Montgomery Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-03T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 84% | 25 | $+1.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 80% | 15 | $+0.90 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 57% | 7 | $+1.50 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 93 | $-0.30 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 45% | 22 | $-2.27 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 413 | $-81.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 37% | 182 | $-4.80 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 37% (182 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (413 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 45% (22 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (93 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ CLE | Hagen Smith vs Parker Messick | 0.745 | 48% | 2.11x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ TB | Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen | 0.846 | 43% | 2.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ MIL | Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski | 0.895 | 41% | 2.45x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ LAD | TBD vs Tarik Skubal | 1.012 | 36% | 2.75x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ LAD | TBD vs Tarik Skubal | 1.012 | 64% | 1.57x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ MIL | Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski | 0.895 | 59% | 1.69x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ TB | Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen | 0.846 | 57% | 1.75x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ CLE | Hagen Smith vs Parker Messick | 0.745 | 52% | 1.9x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-10-03 09:14:50 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-03.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-03.json