STOP-LOSS YELLOW — 7-day portfolio P&L = $-103.97. Halve real-money stakes today.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$10.00 | 3W / 9L | 2 live | 🚨 SMOKED |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | -$10.00 | 3W / 9L | 24 live | 25% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andruw Monasterio BOS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ SEA |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ CIN |
| Jake Mangum PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ MIN |
| Ty France SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | AZ @ SD |
| Zach Neto LAA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ LAA |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ AZ |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ MIL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~24% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$3.76/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Ceddanne Rafaela · Total Bases 70%🔴 Max Clark · Hits+Runs+RBIs 60%🟢 Cal Raleigh · Hitter Strikeouts 90%🟢 Eugenio Suárez · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Max Clark DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CLE |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CLE |
| Nathaniel Lowe CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CLE |
| William Contreras MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| David Hamilton MIL | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ SEA |
| Cole Young SEA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ SEA |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIsCeddanne Rafaela · Total BasesMax Clark · Hits+Runs+RBIsTravis Bazzana · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1119 🔴 Demons / 246 🟢 Goblins / 43 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 80.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Taillon (5.86 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Junior Caminero TB | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 6/10 60% | 72.3 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.22 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Brandon Nimmo TEX | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 72.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Whisenhunt (7.64 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 5/10 50% | 69.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Lauer (4.71 ERA) |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 6/10 60% | 68.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Imanaga (ace, 3.72 ERA) |
| 6 | Taylor Trammell🔥 HOT HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 4/10 40% | 67.6 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Taillon (5.86 |
| 7 | Mickey Moniak COL | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 4/10 40% | 65.1 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Martinez (4.58 |
| 8 | Jeremy Peña🔥 HOT HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 7/10 70% | 64.8 | Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Taillon (5.86 recent ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TOR @ HOU |
| 2 | Junior Caminero | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | COL @ TB |
| 3 | Brandon Nimmo | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SF @ TEX |
Why:
- 3 separate games (TOR @ HOU / COL @ TB / SF @ TEX) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.74x (EV $-0.26/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TOR @ HOU |
| 2 | Junior Caminero | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | COL @ TB |
| 3 | Brandon Nimmo | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SF @ TEX |
| 4 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | LAD @ CHC |
Why:
- Add Pete Crow-Armstrong at LAD @ CHC
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.73x (EV $-0.27/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 6% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 25% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from TOR @ HOU — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TOR @ HOU |
| 2 | Taylor Trammell | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TOR @ HOU |
| 3 | Jeremy Peña | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | TOR @ HOU |
Why:
- 3 batters from TOR @ HOU → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.72x (EV $-0.28/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 11% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Daulton Varsho, Jose Altuve, Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes, Andrés Giménez, Mookie Betts, Ian Happ, Freddie Freeman
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 6 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMGeorge Springer Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · HOU @ TOR
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TOR @ HOU
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+1.94–$+4.29/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMGeorge Springer Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · HOU @ TOR
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TOR @ HOU
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ CHC
🟢 GOBMickey Moniak Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TB @ COL
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-06T05:41.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 82% | 106 | $+6.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 68% | 106 | $+3.80 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 734 | $-3.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 44% | 50 | $-16.11 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 233 | $-55.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 34% | 683 | $-22.50 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (683 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (233 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 44% (50 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (734 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays5 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauervs CHC | Pitches Thrown | MORE 86.5 | 95.0 | +8.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Christian Scottvs CLE | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 34.867 | +7.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Eury Pérezvs ATL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 32.118 | +4.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 104 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Shota Imanagavs LAD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 31.579 | +4.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Eric Lauervs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 19.5 | 23.546 | +4.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-0430 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ BOS | Sean Burke vs Sonny Gray | 0.841 | 43% | 2.32x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ CLE | Christian Scott vs Tanner Bibee | 0.845 | 43% | 2.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ NYY | Andre Pallante vs Will Warren | 1.023 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ ATL | Eury Pérez vs Bryce Elder | 1.058 | 35% | 2.88x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ COL | Nick Martinez vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 1.062 | 35% | 2.89x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ AZ | Casey Mize vs Mitch Bratt | 1.079 | 34% | 2.94x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ PHI | Jake Irvin vs Andrew Painter | 1.611 | 80% | 1.25x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ CIN | Jacob Lopez vs Rhett Lowder | 1.414 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ KC | Dean Kremer vs Noah Cameron | 1.38 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ CHC | Eric Lauer vs Shota Imanaga | 1.272 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ TEX | Carson Whisenhunt vs Cody Bradford | 1.223 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ BAL | Reid Detmers vs Trevor Rogers | 1.189 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (3 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
3 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Shohei Ohtani ⚪ Over 1.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +90.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Myles Straw ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +85.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Taylor Ward ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.2pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-05 22:42:53 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-05.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-05.json