| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 16 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 38 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum PIT also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Dillon Dingler DET also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SEA @ DET |
| Endy Rodríguez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Javier Báez DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (4/5) | +20pp | SEA @ DET |
| Jhonny Pereda SEA also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (4/5) | +20pp | DET @ SEA |
| Julio Rodríguez SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | DET @ SEA |
| Kevin McGonigle DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SEA @ DET |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons11 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ CHC |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ CHC |
| Max Clark DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Javier Báez DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Javier Báez DET | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| David Hamilton MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Cole Young SEA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ SEA |
| Cole Young SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ SEA |
| Zach McKinstry DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ DET |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 519 🔴 Demons / 121 🟢 Goblins / 18 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominic Canzone SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 4/10 40% | 66.9 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Valdez |
| 2 | Randy Arozarena🔥 HOT SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 59.2 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing average Valdez |
| 3 | Riley Greene DET | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 3/10 30% | 58.9 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Miller (ace, 2.67 ERA) |
| 4 | Bryan Reynolds PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 56.9 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — May (ace, 3.90 ERA) |
| 5 | Endy Rodríguez PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 3/8 38% | 56.0 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — May (ace, 3.90 ERA) |
| 6 | Julio Rodríguez SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 3/10 30% | 55.4 | Solid bat · facing average Valdez |
| 7 | Dillon Dingler DET | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 5/10 50% | 54.9 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Miller (ace, 2.67 ERA) |
| 8 | Brandon Lowe PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 54.3 | Average bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — May (ace, 3.90 ERA) |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominic Canzone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | DET @ SEA |
| 2 | Bryan Reynolds | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | MIL @ PIT |
| 3 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SEA @ DET |
- 3 separate games (DET @ SEA / MIL @ PIT / SEA @ DET) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominic Canzone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | DET @ SEA |
| 2 | Bryan Reynolds | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | MIL @ PIT |
| 3 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SEA @ DET |
| 4 | Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | PIT @ MIL |
- Add Jackson Chourio at PIT @ MIL
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 20% | 1.5x |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominic Canzone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | DET @ SEA |
| 2 | Randy Arozarena | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | DET @ SEA |
| 3 | Julio Rodríguez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | DET @ SEA |
- 3 batters from DET @ SEA → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 6% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 29% | 1.0x |
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays1 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 3 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-06T05:41.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 82% | 106 | $+6.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 68% | 106 | $+3.80 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 734 | $-3.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 44% | 50 | $-16.11 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 233 | $-55.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 34% | 683 | $-22.50 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (683 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (233 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 44% (50 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (734 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillovs BOS | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 27.632 | +5.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| David Petersonvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 25.613 | +3.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-0530 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ CLE | Nolan McLean vs Foster Griffin | 0.817 | 44% | 2.26x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ SEA | Framber Valdez vs Bryce Miller | 0.96 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ CHC | Dylan Cease vs David Peterson | 1.076 | 34% | 2.93x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ KC | Bailey Ober vs Michael Wacha | 1.085 | 34% | 2.96x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ CIN | Mason Barnett vs Andrew Abbott | 1.158 | 31% | 3.18x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ ATL | Janson Junk vs Martín Pérez | 1.162 | 31% | 3.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ AZ | Walker Buehler vs Kohl Drake | 1.382 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ MIL | Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May | 1.377 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ BOS | Luis Castillo vs Ranger Suarez | 1.205 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ PHI | Miles Mikolas vs Cristopher Sánchez | 1.173 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ BAL | Ryan Johnson vs Brandon Young | 1.168 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ ATL | Janson Junk vs Martín Pérez | 1.162 | 69% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-06.json