Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+3.44. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 23 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | HOU @ MIL |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ SD |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ TOR |
| Ernie Clement TOR also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ TOR |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Junior Caminero TB also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ TB |
| Kyle Manzardo CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ CLE |
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs ⚪ STANDARD | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +40pp | MIL @ HOU |
| P.J. Higgins CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | ATL @ CIN |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | HOU @ MIL |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | HOU @ MIL |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | HOU @ MIL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~44% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.82/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Taylor Trammell · Hits 90%🔴 Yandy Díaz · Total Bases 70%🔴 Chase Meidroth · Total Bases 70%🟢 Brice Turang · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Fernando Tatis Jr. · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons13 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | MIL @ HOU |
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | MIL @ HOU |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BOS @ CLE |
| JJ Bleday CIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ CIN |
| JJ Bleday CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ CIN |
| Jesús Sánchez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ TOR |
| Tristan Peters CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ CWS |
| Yandy Díaz TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAA @ TB |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ CWS |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ BOS |
| Jonathan Aranda TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAA @ TB |
| Juan Soto NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Taylor Trammell · HitsTravis Bazzana · Total BasesJJ Bleday · Hits+Runs+RBIsJesús Sánchez · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 938 🔴 Demons / 225 🟢 Goblins / 29 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 5/10 50% | 79.5 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.33 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 5/10 50% | 78.9 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.33 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr.🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 78.6 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.33 re |
| 4 | Hunter Goodman COL | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 4/10 40% | 73.6 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Ray (5.35 ERA) |
| 5 | Garrett Mitchell🔥 HOT MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 31 | 4/10 40% | 70.7 | Average bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Imai (5.67 rece |
| 6 | Ezequiel Tovar🔥 HOT COL | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 4/10 40% | 70.6 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Ray |
| 7 | TJ Rumfield COL | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 70.3 | Solid bat · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Ray (5.35 ERA) |
| 8 | Bobby Witt Jr. KC | 0.5 | MORE | 49 | 7/10 70% | 69.8 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Leiter (4.66 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 2 | Ezequiel Tovar | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SF @ COL |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ SD |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CIN @ ATL / SF @ COL / WSH @ SD) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.74x (EV $-0.26/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 2 | Ezequiel Tovar | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SF @ COL |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ SD |
| 4 | Junior Caminero | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | LAA @ TB |
Why:
- Add Junior Caminero at LAA @ TB
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.73x (EV $-0.27/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 6% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 25% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from CIN @ ATL — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 2 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CIN @ ATL |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ ATL |
Why:
- 3 batters from CIN @ ATL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.65x (EV $-0.35/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 10% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 35% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Daulton Varsho, Brandon Valenzuela, Cedric Mullins, Wilyer Abreu, Blake Dunn, Spencer Steer, Colson Montgomery, Riley Greene
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 4 Demons + 9 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
63.0% combined
EV $+0.89–$+2.15/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMTaylor Trammell Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ HOU
🔴 DEMYandy Díaz Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAA @ TB
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
63.0% combined
EV $+2.78–$+5.80/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMTaylor Trammell Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ HOU
🔴 DEMYandy Díaz Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAA @ TB
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BAL @ TOR
🟢 GOBBrice Turang Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · HOU @ MIL
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.1% combined
EV $+2.97–$+6.94/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMTaylor Trammell Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ HOU
🔴 DEMYandy Díaz Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAA @ TB
🔴 DEMChase Meidroth Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · DET @ CWS
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BAL @ TOR
🟢 GOBBrice Turang Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · HOU @ MIL
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d10 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-31T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 67% | 45 | $+13.50 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴MLB-Walks Allowed | 44% | 9 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 34% (71 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Walks Allowed — 44% (9 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays11 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 8 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Canningvs WSH | Pitches Thrown | LESS 87.5 | 73.5 | -14.0pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (28d ago), only 5 starts |
| Michael Wachavs TEX | Pitches Thrown | MORE 92.5 | 105.0 | +12.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 105 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Kyle Bradishvs TOR | Pitches Thrown | MORE 94.5 | 105.0 | +10.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 102 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Jacob Misiorowskivs HOU | Pitches Thrown | MORE 94.5 | 105.0 | +10.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Merrill Kellyvs SEA | Pitches Thrown | MORE 94.5 | 105.0 | +10.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Kyle Bradishvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 30.5 | 37.449 | +7.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 102 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Griffin Canningvs WSH | Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS 25.5 | 21.483 | -4.0pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (28d ago), only 5 starts |
| Braxton Ashcraftvs MIN | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 4.1 | +2.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Matthew Liberatorevs CHC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.7 | +2.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Spencer Stridervs CIN | Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS 6.5 | 4.35 | -2.1pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (28d ago), only 5 starts |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-3030 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 7/7 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ PIT | Zebby Matthews vs Braxton Ashcraft | 0.794 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ TEX | Michael Wacha vs Jack Leiter | 0.883 | 41% | 2.42x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BAL | Spencer Miles vs Kyle Bradish | 0.892 | 41% | 2.44x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ NYM | John King vs Nolan McLean | 0.948 | 39% | 2.58x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ CLE | Ranger Suarez vs Tanner Bibee | 0.99 | 37% | 2.69x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ TB | Jack Kochanowicz vs Shane McClanahan | 1.043 | 35% | 2.84x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ WSH | Griffin Canning vs Zack Littell | 1.557 | 79% | 1.27x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | Jordan Wicks vs Matthew Liberatore | 1.423 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ CIN | Spencer Strider vs Nick Lodolo | 1.327 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ LAD | Andrew Painter vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 1.277 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ ATH | Will Warren vs Jacob Lopez | 1.266 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ COL | Robbie Ray vs Tanner Gordon | 1.22 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-31 09:13:29 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-31.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-31.json