Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+134.92. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 29 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🎾 Tennis | +$2.88 | 1W / 0L | 0 live | · |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | +$2.88 | 1W / 0L | 39 live | 100% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks13 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Del Castillo AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ AZ |
| Byron Buxton MIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | HOU @ MIN |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ CWS |
| Drew Gilbert SF | Hitter Strikeouts ⚪ STANDARD | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +40pp | AZ @ SF |
| Tristan Gray MIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | HOU @ MIN |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 89% (8/9) | +29pp | MIN @ HOU |
| Jake Meyers HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 83% (5/6) | +23pp | MIN @ HOU |
| James Outman MIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | HOU @ MIN |
| Jarred Kelenic CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SEA @ CWS |
| Josh Bell MIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | HOU @ MIN |
| Matt Chapman SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | AZ @ SF |
| Rafael Devers SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | AZ @ SF |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~24% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$3.73/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Ketel Marte · Total Bases 70%🔴 Jake Meyers · Singles 67%🔴 Ryan Kreidler · Total Bases 62%🟢 Colson Montgomery · Hitter Strikeouts 90%⚪ Drew Gilbert · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons4 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Meyers HOU | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | MIN @ HOU |
| Ryan Kreidler MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | HOU @ MIN |
| Rafael Devers SF | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | AZ @ SF |
| Ketel Marte AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SF @ AZ |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Jake Meyers · SinglesRyan Kreidler · Total BasesRafael Devers · SinglesKetel Marte · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 782 🔴 Demons / 196 🟢 Goblins / 40 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Schmitt SF | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 3/10 30% | 73.9 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Kelly (7.91 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Brandon Nimmo TEX | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 3/10 30% | 68.4 | Above-avg bat · facing vulnerable Freeland (5.42 ERA) |
| 3 | TJ Rumfield COL | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 2/10 20% | 67.6 | Solid bat · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Leiter (4.63 ERA) |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 3/10 30% | 66.5 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Hancock (ace, 3.98 ERA) |
| 5 | Jarred Kelenic CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 2/10 20% | 65.5 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Hancock (ace, 3.98 ERA) |
| 6 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 2/10 20% | 63.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Ryan (ace, 3.14 ERA) |
| 7 | Jake McCarthy🔥 HOT COL | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 3/10 30% | 62.9 | Average bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Leiter |
| 8 | Edouard Julien COL | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 0/10 0% | 62.5 | Average bat · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Leiter (4.63 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Nimmo | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | COL @ TEX |
| 2 | TJ Rumfield | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TEX @ COL |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | SEA @ CWS |
Why:
- 3 separate games (COL @ TEX / TEX @ COL / SEA @ CWS) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 27% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.21x (EV $-0.79/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 2% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 16% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Nimmo | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | COL @ TEX |
| 2 | TJ Rumfield | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TEX @ COL |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | SEA @ CWS |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | MIN @ HOU |
Why:
- Add Yordan Alvarez at MIN @ HOU
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 25% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.09x (EV $-0.91/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 0% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 5% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from TEX @ COL — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TJ Rumfield | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TEX @ COL |
| 2 | Jake McCarthy | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | TEX @ COL |
| 3 | Edouard Julien | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 0/10 0% | TEX @ COL |
Why:
- 3 batters from TEX @ COL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 25% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.00x (EV $-1.00/$1)
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Cam Smith, Mickey Moniak, Adrian Del Castillo, Drew Gilbert, Ildemaro Vargas, Jose Fernandez
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-20T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢OTHER-btts_no | 62% | 8 | $+4.49 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 12 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 12% | 24 | $-63.81 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 12% (24 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 50% (12 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 50% (10 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 58% (19 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays7 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 5 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connelly Earlyvs KC | Pitches Thrown | MORE 89.5 | 105.0 | +15.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Connelly Earlyvs KC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 36.362 | +8.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Mike Burrowsvs MIN | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 25.5 | 29.458 | +4.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 102 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Merrill Kellyvs SF | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.3 | +2.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Connelly Earlyvs KC | Pitcher Strikeouts | MORE 4.5 | 7.02 | +2.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Emerson Hancockvs CWS | Hits Allowed | MORE 4.5 | 6.607 | +2.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Tyler Mahlevs AZ | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.6 | +2.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-1930 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ KC | Connelly Early vs Michael Wacha | 0.705 | 49% | 2.02x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ NYY | Trey Yesavage vs Cam Schlittler | 0.765 | 46% | 2.15x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ SD | Shohei Ohtani vs Randy Vásquez | 0.775 | 46% | 2.17x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ SEA | Sean Burke vs Emerson Hancock | 0.98 | 38% | 2.66x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ LAA | Aaron Civale vs Jack Kochanowicz | 0.987 | 37% | 2.68x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ MIA | Chris Sale vs Janson Junk | 1.041 | 35% | 2.83x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ WSH | Zach Thornton vs Zack Littell | 1.392 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ AZ | Tyler Mahle vs Merrill Kelly | 1.336 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BAL @ TB | Shane Baz vs Steven Matz | 1.327 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TEX @ COL | Jack Leiter vs Kyle Freeland | 1.265 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ PHI | Andrew Abbott vs Aaron Nola | 1.234 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ MIN | Mike Burrows vs Joe Ryan | 1.21 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (2 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
1 WON · 0 LOST · 1 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis | Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar ❄ 1/9 Coleman Wong to win | Match winner | +14.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Bryce Harper Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | +2.7pp | 🟡 LIVE |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-20 10:41:28 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-20.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-20.json