edgeboard
MONEY SLATE · LIVE
2026-05-21 06:11 PT · refreshed just now
PITCHERS NOW
VEGAS
LINEUPS NOW
WEATHER NOW
KALSHI HR NOW
PP EDGES NOW
ML EDGES
WC EDGES
TENNIS NOW
TOTAL PICKS
7
locked today
ELITE
0
top tier
STRONG
1
tier 2
REAL $ PLAN
$3
1 fires
Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+137.80. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
SportP&LRecordLiveHealth
⚾ MLB$0.000W / 0L7 live(early)
⚽ WC$0.000W / 0L10 live(early)
🏈 NFLno slate today
PORTFOLIO$0.000W / 0L17 live
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 1 ranked
STRONG · +3.9pp
Nick Kurtz
Home run (Kalshi)
Fire $3 →
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $3 total stake · 1 fires
Real Money Plan — Kalshi + PrizePicks (CA-legal)
SportPickMarketSideTierEdgeStakeMax PayoutFire
MLBNick Kurtz
Home run (Kalshi)Will hit a home runSTRONG+3.9pp$3$16.67Fire on Kalshi →
TOTAL (1 fires)$3$16.67

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

PickCurrentOpenMoveRaw EdgeVig-Adj EdgePrice Move
Nick Kurtz18¢18¢+0.0pp+3.9pp+4.5pp⚪ flat
Open vs current Kalshi YES-ask. Vig-Adj Edge applies favorite-longshot bias correction. Price Move: 🟢 cheaper = better entry now · 🔴 pricier = worse entry. Threshold ±3¢ big move, ±1¢ small move. 1 tracked tickers.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks17 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

PlayerStat / variantLineL10 hit%Edge vs PPGame
Oneil Cruz PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppSTL @ PIT
Adrian Del Castillo AZHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCOL @ AZ
Konnor Griffin PIT
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSTL @ PIT
Nick Kurtz ATHHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppLAA @ ATH
Riley Greene DET
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCLE @ DET
Spencer Horwitz PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSTL @ PIT
Zach Neto LAAHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppATH @ LAA
Aaron Judge NYYHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppTOR @ NYY
Alec Burleson STL
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppPIT @ STL
Austin Riley ATLHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppMIA @ ATL
Hunter Goodman COLHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppAZ @ COL
Marcell Ozuna PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppSTL @ PIT
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~40% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.06/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Riley Greene · Singles 80%🔴 Angel Martínez · RBIs 80%🔴 Juan Soto · Total Bases 70%🟢 Oneil Cruz · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Adrian Del Castillo · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →
🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

PlayerStat / variantLineEst hit%Edge vs PPGame
Riley Greene DETSingles 🔴 DEMON0.580% (8/10)+40.0ppCLE @ DET
Riley Greene DETTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCLE @ DET
Riley Greene DETHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCLE @ DET
James Wood WSHTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ WSH
Henry Bolte ATHSingles 🔴 DEMON0.557% (4/7)+17.1ppLAA @ ATH
A.J. Ewing NYMSingles 🔴 DEMON0.556% (5/9)+15.6ppWSH @ NYM
Juan Soto NYMTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppWSH @ NYM
Angel Martínez CLERBIs 🔴 DEMON0.580% (8/10)+40.0ppDET @ CLE
Spencer Horwitz PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppSTL @ PIT
Angel Martínez CLETotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppDET @ CLE
Dillon Dingler DETTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCLE @ DET
Oneil Cruz PITTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppSTL @ PIT
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Riley Greene · SinglesJames Wood · Total BasesHenry Bolte · SinglesA.J. Ewing · Singles
Open PrizePicks →
🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 401 🔴 Demons / 108 🟢 Goblins / 16 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#PlayerLineSidePA14L10ScoreWhy
1Shea Langeliers
ATH
1.5MORE523/10 30%80.4Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Kochanowicz (5.53 recent ERA)
2Nick Kurtz
ATH
1.5MORE593/10 30%79.5Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Kochanowicz (5.53 recent ERA)
3Brent Rooker
ATH
1.5MORE563/10 30%72.3Average bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Kochanowicz (5.53 recent ERA)
4James Wood
WSH
1.5MORE626/10 60%71.0Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
5Ben Rice
NYY
1.5MORE505/10 50%70.6Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
6Paul Goldschmidt
NYY
1.5MORE345/10 50%69.5Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
7Jordan Walker
STL
1.5MORE523/10 30%69.1Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
8Michael Harris II
ATL
0.5MORE487/10 70%68.3Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Shea LangeliersTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%LAA @ ATH
2James WoodTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%NYM @ WSH
3Ben RiceTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%TOR @ NYY
Why:
  • 3 separate games (LAA @ ATH / NYM @ WSH / TOR @ NYY) → zero same-game correlation
  • All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
  • All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
  • All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.63x (EV $-0.37/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
3/39%3.0x
2/336%1.0x
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Shea LangeliersTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%LAA @ ATH
2James WoodTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%NYM @ WSH
3Ben RiceTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%TOR @ NYY
4Jordan WalkerTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%PIT @ STL
Why:
  • Add Jordan Walker at PIT @ STL
  • 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
  • Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 42% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.42x (EV $-0.58/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
4/43%6.0x
3/417%1.5x
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from LAA @ ATH — bigger upside, bigger variance.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Shea LangeliersTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%LAA @ ATH
2Nick KurtzTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%LAA @ ATH
3Brent RookerTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%LAA @ ATH
Why:
  • 3 batters from LAA @ ATH → correlated
  • If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
  • If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 30% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.27x (EV $-0.73/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
3/33%3.0x
2/319%1.0x
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Daniel Schneemann, Riley Greene, Wenceel Pérez, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Nathan Church, Spencer Horwitz, CJ Abrams
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 4 Demons + 7 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
5.0–8.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.20–$+4.12/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMRiley Greene Singles MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ DET
🔴 DEMAngel Martínez RBIs MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ CLE
$5 → $25–$40
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
10.8–21.0xpayout range
57.6% combined
EV $+5.22–$+11.10/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMRiley Greene Singles MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ DET
🔴 DEMAngel Martínez RBIs MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ CLE
🟢 GOBOneil Cruz Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ PIT
🟢 GOBAdrian Del Castillo Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · COL @ AZ
$5 → $54–$105
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
18.0–36.0xpayout range
40.3% combined
EV $+6.26–$+13.52/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMRiley Greene Singles MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ DET
🔴 DEMAngel Martínez RBIs MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ CLE
🔴 DEMJuan Soto Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · WSH @ NYM
🟢 GOBOneil Cruz Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ PIT
🟢 GOBAdrian Del Castillo Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · COL @ AZ
$5 → $90–$180
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard →

Slate today1 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 1
7-day paper P&L$+155.64 (90 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$-6.46 (17 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$-11.38 (27 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-21 06:11:11 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-21.json