| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | +$18.42 | 3W / 0L | 14 live | 🔥 WINNING |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | +$16.42 | 3W / 1L | 24 live | 75% hit |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Del Castillo AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ AZ |
| Carson Benge NYM also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Joe Mack MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ MIA |
| Jorge Soler LAA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ LAA |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Zach Neto LAA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ LAA |
| Aaron Judge NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ NYY |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIA @ ATL |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Davis Schneider TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | AZ @ COL |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons13 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Henry Bolte ATH | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | LAA @ ATH |
| A.J. Ewing NYM | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 56% (5/9) | +15.6pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Juan Soto NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Mark Vientos NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Carson Benge NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Darell Hernaiz ATH | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Brett Baty NYM | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Jakob Marsee MIA | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ MIA |
| Matt Olson ATL | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ ATL |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 295 🔴 Demons / 80 🟢 Goblins / 9 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 6/10 60% | 73.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Peterson |
| 2 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 7/10 70% | 72.0 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Cavalli |
| 3 | Daylen Lile🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 5/10 50% | 62.5 | Solid bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · facing average Peterson |
| 4 | Mark Vientos NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 6/10 60% | 62.2 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing average Cavalli |
| 5 | Brett Baty🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 5/10 50% | 56.4 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · facing average Cavalli |
| 6 | Bo Bichette🔥 HOT NYM | 0.5 | MORE | 58 | 6/10 60% | 54.8 | Average bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · facing average Cavalli |
| 7 | Marcus Semien NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 2/10 20% | 53.2 | Below-avg bat · facing average Cavalli |
| 8 | Jacob Young🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 4/10 40% | 51.6 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · facing average Peterson |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | WSH @ NYM |
| 2 | Mark Vientos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ NYM |
| 3 | Brett Baty | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | WSH @ NYM |
| 4 | Bo Bichette | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ NYM |
- 4 batters from WSH @ NYM → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 13% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 35% | 1.5x |
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays1 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 1 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-21T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢OTHER-btts_no | 62% | 8 | $+4.49 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 12 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 16% | 25 | $-60.93 |
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 16% (25 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 50% (12 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 50% (10 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 58% (19 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays3 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Stridervs MIA | Pitches Thrown | LESS 92.5 | 82.2 | -10.3pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (18d ago), only 3 starts |
| Spencer Stridervs MIA | Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS 32.5 | 25.025 | -7.5pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (18d ago), only 3 starts |
| Spencer Stridervs MIA | Pitching Outs | LESS 16.5 | 14.1 | -2.4pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-05-03 (18d ago), only 3 starts |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-2030 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 3/3 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ DET | Joey Cantillo vs Casey Mize | 0.75 | 47% | 2.12x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ MIA | Spencer Strider vs Sandy Alcantara | 0.908 | 40% | 2.48x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ LAA | Luis Severino vs José Soriano | 0.959 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| COL @ AZ | Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.114 | 33% | 3.05x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PIT @ STL | Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May | 1.167 | 31% | 3.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ NYY | Braydon Fisher vs Carlos Rodón | 1.189 | 30% | 3.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ WSH | David Peterson vs Cade Cavalli | 1.454 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ NYY | Braydon Fisher vs Carlos Rodón | 1.189 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ STL | Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May | 1.167 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ AZ | Zach Agnos vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.114 | 67% | 1.49x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ LAA | Luis Severino vs José Soriano | 0.959 | 62% | 1.62x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ MIA | Spencer Strider vs Sandy Alcantara | 0.908 | 60% | 1.68x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
Today's Results — Settled + Live
1 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Brandon Lowe Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | +6.4pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-21.json