Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-12.36. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 7 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 17 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks20 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ SEA |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ CWS |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ KC |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ AZ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs ⚪ STANDARD | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +40pp | NYY @ PIT |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ CIN |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ SF |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~34% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.86/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Chase DeLauter · Total Bases 70%🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ MIL |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SF @ KC |
| Gleyber Torres DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ DET |
| Byron Buxton MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ MIL |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ ATH |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ BOS |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ NYM |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ CHC |
| Nolan Schanuel LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | STL @ LAA |
| Nolan Arenado AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATH @ AZ |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsChase DeLauter · Total BasesLane Thomas · Total BasesGleyber Torres · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1192 🔴 Demons / 281 🟢 Goblins / 44 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 2/10 20% | 76.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.81 ERA) |
| 2 | Drake Baldwin ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 74.9 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Buehler (4.52 ERA) |
| 3 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 3/10 30% | 72.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Buehler (4.52 ERA) |
| 4 | Bryce Eldridge🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 71.6 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Avila (4. |
| 5 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 6/10 60% | 71.2 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Chandler |
| 6 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 70.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 7 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 7/10 70% | 70.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 8 | Heliot Ramos SF | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 4/10 40% | 70.0 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Avila (4.87 ERA) |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Josh Bell, Kyle Manzardo, Brooks Lee, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Bryson Stott, Kyle Tucker, Brandon Lowe
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ CLE
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
44.1% combined
EV $+1.65–$+3.76/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ CLE
⚪ STAEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ PIT
🟢 GOBMunetaka Murakami Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TEX @ CWS
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
30.9% combined
EV $+1.78–$+4.56/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ CLE
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ KC
⚪ STAEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ PIT
🟢 GOBMunetaka Murakami Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · TEX @ CWS
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-21T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 72% | 169 | $+7.30 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 54% | 156 | $+1.40 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 53% | 93 | $+6.31 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 871 | $-13.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 231 | $-51.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 37% | 1205 | $-31.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 37% (1205 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (231 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (871 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 53% (93 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays6 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luinder Avilavs SF | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 19.5 | 28.581 | +9.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Luinder Avilavs SF | Pitches Thrown | MORE 86.5 | 95.0 | +8.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Tyler Mahlevs KC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 29.531 | +7.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 104 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Brandon Sproatvs NYM | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 25.5 | 31.916 | +6.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 106 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Drew Rasmussenvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 28.5 | 33.077 | +4.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Justin Wrobleskivs PHI | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 110 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2030 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ CLE | Kendry Rojas vs Parker Messick | 0.73 | 48% | 2.08x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ PHI | Justin Wrobleski vs Zack Wheeler | 0.794 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ BOS | Kyle Bradish vs Eduardo Rivera | 0.814 | 44% | 2.26x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CIN @ SEA | Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo | 0.952 | 39% | 2.59x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ TOR | Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman | 1.063 | 34% | 2.89x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ LAA | Matthew Liberatore vs Walbert Ureña | 1.093 | 34% | 2.98x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ COL | Carson Palmquist vs Michael Lorenzen | 1.701 | 82% | 1.22x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ TEX | Noah Schultz vs Kumar Rocker | 1.4 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ KC | Tyler Mahle vs Luinder Avila | 1.39 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ NYY | Bubba Chandler vs Will Warren | 1.379 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ CHC | Framber Valdez vs David Peterson | 1.357 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ AZ | Jack Perkins vs Kohl Drake | 1.295 | 73% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-21 10:51:01 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-21.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-21.json