Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-88.04. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$4.00 | 3W / 7L | 0 live | ↓ down |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | -$4.00 | 3W / 7L | 11 live | 30% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks14 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ STL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Christian Walker HOU | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | KC @ HOU |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ MIL |
| Luis Arraez SF also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ SF |
| Rafael Devers SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ SF |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | KC @ HOU |
| Zack Gelof ATH also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | COL @ ATH |
| A.J. Ewing NYM | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ CHC |
| Jung Hoo Lee SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ SF |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TOR |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Alec Burleson · Total Bases 80%🔴 Christian Yelich · Total Bases 80%🔴 Ernie Clement · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Chase Meidroth · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Christian Walker · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Clement TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | AZ @ CIN |
| Bryce Eldridge SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ SF |
| Alec Burleson STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIN @ STL |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ LAD |
| Tristan Peters CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ BOS |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | MIA @ PIT |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | PHI @ MIL |
| Tristan Peters CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Ernie Clement · Hits+Runs+RBIsChase Meidroth · Hits+Runs+RBIsNoelvi Marte · Hits+Runs+RBIsBryce Eldridge · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1004 🔴 Demons / 261 🟢 Goblins / 32 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani🔥 HOT LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 9/10 90% | 84.2 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Kay (5.88 rec |
| 2 | Dominic Canzone🔥 HOT SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 4/10 40% | 79.3 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Littell (5.9 |
| 3 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 5/10 50% | 77.7 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Leiter (4.58 ERA) |
| 4 | Corbin Carroll🔥 HOT AZ | 0.5 | MORE | 55 | 6/10 60% | 76.2 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.64 |
| 5 | Dillon Dingler🔥 HOT DET | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 4/10 40% | 75.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Bibee (4.5 |
| 6 | Freddie Freeman LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 6/10 60% | 74.6 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Kay (5.88 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Spencer Steer🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 4/10 40% | 74.5 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 8 | Luke Raley SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 2/10 20% | 73.6 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Littell (5.92 recent ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 9/10 90% | CWS @ LAD |
| 2 | Corbin Carroll | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CIN @ AZ |
| 3 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CLE @ DET |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CWS @ LAD / CIN @ AZ / CLE @ DET) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 63% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.14x (EV +$0.14/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 22% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 49% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 9/10 90% | CWS @ LAD |
| 2 | Corbin Carroll | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CIN @ AZ |
| 3 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CLE @ DET |
| 4 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | AZ @ CIN |
Why:
- Add JJ Bleday at AZ @ CIN
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 57% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.01x (EV +$0.01/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 9% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 33% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Liam Hicks, Xavier Edwards, Gunnar Henderson, Miguel Andujar, Evan Carter, Ezequiel Duran, Chase DeLauter, Daniel Schneemann
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 15 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ NYY
🔴 DEMShohei Ohtani Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ LAD
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ NYY
🔴 DEMShohei Ohtani Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ LAD
🟢 GOBChase Meidroth Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ CWS
🟢 GOBJung Hoo Lee Hits MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ SF
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
51.2% combined
EV $+3.61–$+8.22/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ NYY
🔴 DEMShohei Ohtani Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ LAD
🔴 DEMChristian Yelich Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · PHI @ MIL
🟢 GOBChase Meidroth Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ CWS
🟢 GOBJung Hoo Lee Hits MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ SF
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d13 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-13T05:34.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 67% | 15 | $+6.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 65% | 66 | $+17.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 57% | 35 | $+5.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 197 | $+1.80 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 51% | 247 | $+0.70 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitching Outs | 50% | 6 | $+1.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 1192 | $+0.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 14% (7 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 25% (8 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (77 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 41% (115 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays3 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Leitervs BOS | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 31.259 | +3.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Ryan Weathersvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 30.5 | 33.852 | +3.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 107 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Nick Lodolovs AZ | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.4 | +2.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ LAA | Shane McClanahan vs Sam Aldegheri | 0.75 | 47% | 2.12x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| COL @ ATH | TBD vs Gage Jump | 0.917 | 40% | 2.5x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ BOS | Jack Leiter vs Sonny Gray | 0.988 | 37% | 2.69x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ CIN | Eduardo Rodriguez vs Nick Lodolo | 1.061 | 35% | 2.89x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ WSH | Bryce Miller vs Zack Littell | 1.071 | 34% | 2.92x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ MIN | Kyle Leahy vs Joe Ryan | 1.129 | 32% | 3.09x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ CWS | Roki Sasaki vs Anthony Kay | 1.401 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ BAL | Griffin Canning vs Shane Baz | 1.272 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ MIL | Andrew Painter vs Jacob Misiorowski | 1.223 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ KC | Tatsuya Imai vs Luinder Avila | 1.223 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ SF | Javier Assad vs Landen Roupp | 1.203 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ CLE | Jack Flaherty vs Tanner Bibee | 1.199 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (3 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
3 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Owen Caissie ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +65.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Kyle Schwarber ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.6pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Mike Yastrzemski ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.1pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-12 22:35:30 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-12.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-12.json