| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$3.00 | 3W / 6L | 0 live | ↓ down |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | -$3.00 | 3W / 6L | 22 live | 33% hit |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hao-Yu Lee DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ DET |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ MIL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Michael Harris II ATL also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ CHC |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SF |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ SEA |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ HOU |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Tyrone Taylor NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Nicky Lopez TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TEX |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TEX |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Tommy White ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 56% (5/9) | +15.6pp | BOS @ ATH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | STL @ CHC |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 944 🔴 Demons / 207 🟢 Goblins / 45 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominic Canzone SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 2/10 20% | 68.8 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Rocker (4.60 ERA) |
| 2 | Brandon Nimmo TEX | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 5/10 50% | 58.5 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA) |
| 3 | Randy Arozarena SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 2/10 20% | 58.4 | Solid bat · facing vulnerable Rocker (4.60 ERA) |
| 4 | Julio Rodríguez SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 3/10 30% | 57.6 | Solid bat · facing vulnerable Rocker (4.60 ERA) |
| 5 | Cole Young🔥 HOT SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 4/10 40% | 53.7 | Average bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Rocker (4.60 ERA) |
| 6 | Jake Burger TEX | 1.5 | MORE | 34 | 4/10 40% | 50.5 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA) |
| 7 | Wyatt Langford TEX | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 5/10 50% | 49.7 | Average bat · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA) |
| 8 | Ezequiel Duran TEX | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 6/10 60% | 41.5 | Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA) |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominic Canzone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TEX @ SEA |
| 2 | Randy Arozarena | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TEX @ SEA |
| 3 | Julio Rodríguez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | TEX @ SEA |
| 4 | Cole Young | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TEX @ SEA |
- 4 batters from TEX @ SEA → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 0% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 6% | 1.5x |
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays1 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 1 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-28T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 129 | $+4.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 62% | 101 | $+2.50 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 63 | $-4.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 46% | 755 | $-5.70 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 184 | $-42.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 964 | $-22.20 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (964 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (184 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 46% (755 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (63 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconivs CIN | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 25.796 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2630 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ MIA | Zack Wheeler vs Tyler Phillips | 0.807 | 45% | 2.24x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ NYM | Martín Pérez vs Zac Thornton | 0.828 | 44% | 2.29x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ DET | Kyle Bradish vs Keider Montero | 0.895 | 41% | 2.45x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ CIN | Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns | 0.936 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | George Kirby vs Kumar Rocker | 0.945 | 39% | 2.57x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ LAA | Tatsuya Imai vs Walbert Ureña | 1.091 | 34% | 2.98x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ SF | Brandon Sproat vs Tyler Mahle | 1.536 | 78% | 1.27x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ PIT | Merrill Kelly vs Mitch Keller | 1.531 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ WSH | Max Scherzer vs Eddy Yean | 1.417 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | David Peterson vs TBD | 1.396 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CWS | Max Fried vs Noah Schultz | 1.172 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BOS @ ATH | Payton Tolle vs Jack Perkins | 1.155 | 68% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
Today's Results — Settled + Live
3 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Hao-Yu Lee ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +97.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Griffin Conine ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +92.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Drew Gilbert ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +72.0pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-27.json