Money Slate · 2026-07-20

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-12.36. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	$0.00	3W / 3L	0 live	·
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	—	no slate today
PORTFOLIO	$0.00	3W / 3L	10 live	50% hit

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks17 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Brandon Lowe PIT	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	NYY @ PIT
Colt Emerson SEA	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CIN @ SEA
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Hits	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	NYY @ PIT
Jeremy Peña HOU	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	MIA @ HOU
Josh Naylor SEA	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CIN @ SEA
Munetaka Murakami CWS	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	TEX @ CWS
Bryan Reynolds PIT	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	NYY @ PIT
Carter Jensen KC	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	SF @ KC
Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIN @ CLE
Heliot Ramos SF also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs	Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	KC @ SF
Isaac Paredes HOU	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIA @ HOU
Pete Alonso BAL	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	BOS @ BAL

Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~34% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.86/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Chase DeLauter · Total Bases 70%🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 70%🔴 Nolan Arenado · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Chase DeLauter CLE	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	MIN @ CLE
Lane Thomas KC	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	SF @ KC
Nolan Arenado AZ	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	ATH @ AZ
Gleyber Torres DET	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	CHC @ DET
Byron Buxton MIN	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	CLE @ MIN
Garrett Mitchell MIL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYM @ MIL
Willson Contreras BOS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	BAL @ BOS
Francisco Alvarez NYM	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	MIL @ NYM
Seiya Suzuki CHC	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	DET @ CHC
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	3.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYY @ PIT
Seiya Suzuki CHC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	DET @ CHC
Tsung-Che Cheng BOS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	BAL @ BOS

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Chase DeLauter · Total BasesLane Thomas · Total BasesNolan Arenado · Hits+Runs+RBIsGleyber Torres · Hits+Runs+RBIs

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 1146 🔴 Demons / 250 🟢 Goblins / 60 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Drake Baldwin ATL	1.5	MORE	45	4/10 40%	78.6	Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Sears (5.41 ERA)
2	Matt Olson ATL	1.5	MORE	47	4/10 40%	77.0	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sears (5.41 ERA)
3	James Wood🔥 HOT WSH	1.5	MORE	44	5/10 50%	73.7	Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball
4	Elly De La Cruz CIN	1.5	MORE	42	5/10 50%	70.1	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park
5	Yordan Alvarez HOU	1.5	MORE	42	6/10 60%	69.6	Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
6	Wilyer Abreu🔥 HOT BOS	1.5	MORE	44	4/10 40%	69.2	Solid bat · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Baz
7	Mike Trout LAA	1.5	MORE	32	4/8 50%	68.9	Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball
8	Hunter Goodman COL	1.5	MORE	32	4/10 40%	68.6	Solid bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park

Auto-faded (caught by gates):

Kyle Manzardo, Josh Bell, Brooks Lee, Cody Bellinger, Brandon Lowe, Daulton Varsho, Adley Rutschman, Jarren Duran

🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 8 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST

2-pick

3.0–5.0xpayout range

56.0% combined

EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1

Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.

🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ PIT

🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL

$5 → $15–$25

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚖️ BALANCED

4-pick

6.0–10.8xpayout range

56.0% combined

EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1

2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.

🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ PIT

🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL

🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · CIN @ SEA

🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · ATH @ AZ

$5 → $30–$54

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

🚀 HUNGRY

5-pick

9.0–18.0xpayout range

39.2% combined

EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1

Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.

🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ PIT

🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL

🔴 DEMChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · MIN @ CLE

🟢 GOBColt Emerson Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · CIN @ SEA

🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · ATH @ AZ

$5 → $45–$90

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-21T05:36.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	72%	169	$+7.30
🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks	54%	156	$+1.40
🟡UNKNOWN	53%	93	$+6.31
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	42%	871	$-13.10
🔴MLB-Total Bases	39%	231	$-51.00
🔴Tennis-Total Games	37%	1205	$-31.30

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 37% (1205 picks)
🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (231 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (871 picks)
🔴 UNKNOWN — 53% (93 picks)

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays5 trusted

Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.

Pitcher	Stat	Side	Proj	Edge	Signal	Why
Bryce Eldervs SD	Pitches Thrown	MORE 77.5	95.0	+17.5pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Bryce Eldervs SD	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 20.5	27.781	+7.3pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Emmet Sheehanvs PHI	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 27.5	32.719	+5.2pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Freddy Peraltavs MIL	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 25.5	29.064	+3.6pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Freddy Peraltavs MIL	Earned Runs Allowed	MORE 2.5	4.9	+2.4pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-1932 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	1/1	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
TB @ TOR	Nick Martinez vs Dylan Cease	0.702	50%	2.02x	⚡ Kalshi NO
STL @ LAA	Kyle Leahy vs José Soriano	0.907	40%	2.48x	⚡ Kalshi NO
MIN @ CLE	Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee	0.938	39%	2.55x	⚡ Kalshi NO
BAL @ BOS	Shane Baz vs Payton Tolle	1.008	36%	2.74x	⚡ Kalshi NO
CWS @ TEX	Erick Fedde vs Jacob deGrom	1.021	36%	2.78x	⚡ Kalshi NO
CIN @ SEA	Andrew Abbott vs George Kirby	1.053	35%	2.87x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
WSH @ COL	Andrew Alvarez vs Kyle Freeland	1.518	78%	1.28x	⚡ Kalshi YES
ATH @ AZ	Jeffrey Springs vs Mitch Bratt	1.47	77%	1.3x	⚡ Kalshi YES
DET @ CHC	Jack Flaherty vs Jameson Taillon	1.446	76%	1.31x	⚡ Kalshi YES
SD @ ATL	JP Sears vs Bryce Elder	1.352	74%	1.35x	⚡ Kalshi YES
SF @ KC	Trevor McDonald vs Michael Wacha	1.234	71%	1.41x	⚡ Kalshi YES
MIA @ HOU	Janson Junk vs Ronel Blanco	1.233	71%	1.41x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

📋 Today's Results (3 locked)

Today's Results — Settled + Live

3 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.

Sport	Pick	Market	Edge	State
MLB	Evan Carter ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+83.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Cedric Mullins ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+76.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Chase Meidroth ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+73.0pp	✅ WON

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-12.36 (20 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-07-20 22:36:44 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-20.json