Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-7.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 9 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 31 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Michael Harris II ATL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SF |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ CHC |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ ATH |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | DET @ BAL |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TEX @ SEA |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~58% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$10.52/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Hao-Yu Lee · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%🔴 Michael Harris II · Total Bases 80%🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Nick Gonzales · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Tyler Locklear AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Tommy White ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | BOS @ ATH |
| Hao-Yu Lee DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | BAL @ DET |
| Nicky Lopez TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ TEX |
| Joe Mack MIA | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | STL @ CHC |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Tyrone Taylor NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Michael Harris II · Total BasesTyler Locklear · Hits+Runs+RBIsNick Gonzales · Total BasesTommy White · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 941 🔴 Demons / 212 🟢 Goblins / 42 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 2/10 20% | 79.9 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Scherzer (6.30 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 6/10 60% | 76.6 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Kelly (7.29 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 4/10 40% | 76.4 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Schultz (6.07 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 4/10 40% | 76.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Cecconi (4.72 E |
| 5 | Drake Baldwin🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 7/10 70% | 75.4 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Thornton |
| 6 | CJ Abrams🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 8/10 80% | 73.2 | Solid bat · on hot streak (16% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Scherzer (6.30 r |
| 7 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 4/10 40% | 73.2 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Cecconi (4.72 ERA) |
| 8 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 5/10 50% | 70.7 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Josh Naylor, Colt Emerson, Kyle Schwarber, Otto Lopez, J.T. Realmuto, Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Colt Keith
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 11 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+1.16–$+2.60/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ DET
🔴 DEMMichael Harris II Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYM @ ATL
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+3.32–$+6.78/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ DET
🔴 DEMMichael Harris II Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYM @ ATL
🟢 GOBGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PIT @ AZ
🟢 GOBNick Gonzales Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · AZ @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
57.6% combined
EV $+4.18–$+9.37/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ DET
🔴 DEMMichael Harris II Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYM @ ATL
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · PIT @ AZ
🟢 GOBNick Gonzales Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · AZ @ PIT
🟢 GOBJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAA @ HOU
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-27T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 132 | $+4.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 61% | 107 | $+2.30 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 49% | 70 | $-6.89 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 44% | 752 | $-8.60 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 979 | $-22.50 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 191 | $-47.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (191 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (979 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 44% (752 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 49% (70 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2630 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ MIA | Zack Wheeler vs Tyler Phillips | 0.807 | 45% | 2.24x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ NYM | Martín Pérez vs Zac Thornton | 0.828 | 44% | 2.29x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ DET | Kyle Bradish vs Keider Montero | 0.895 | 41% | 2.45x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ CIN | Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns | 0.936 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | George Kirby vs Kumar Rocker | 0.945 | 39% | 2.57x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ LAA | Tatsuya Imai vs Walbert Ureña | 1.091 | 34% | 2.98x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL @ SF | Brandon Sproat vs Tyler Mahle | 1.536 | 78% | 1.27x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ PIT | Merrill Kelly vs Mitch Keller | 1.531 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ WSH | Max Scherzer vs Andrew Alvarez | 1.417 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | David Peterson vs TBD | 1.396 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CWS | Max Fried vs Noah Schultz | 1.172 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BOS @ ATH | Payton Tolle vs Jack Perkins | 1.155 | 68% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-27 06:24:19 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-27.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-27.json