Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-50.20. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 29 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
1 ranked
ELITE · +10.7pp
Saint-Etienne vs Nice
2026-05-26 Saint Etienne v Nice · Match winner
$0
→ $0.00
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ AZ |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Adolis García PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ PHI |
| Jake Bauers MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ MIL |
| Junior Caminero TB also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ TB |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Ramón Laureano SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ SD |
| Spencer Steer CIN also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Trea Turner PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ PHI |
| Xavier Edwards MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ MIA |
| Nick Sogard BOS also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | ATL @ BOS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~58% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$10.66/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Ketel Marte · Total Bases 90%🔴 Willson Contreras · Total Bases 90%🔴 Keibert Ruiz · Total Bases 80%🟢 Spencer Horwitz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Adolis García · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | SF @ AZ |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | SF @ AZ |
| James Wood WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ WSH |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ MIL |
| Kyle Schwarber PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ PHI |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ WSH |
| Spencer Steer CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ WSH |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ MIL |
| Yandy Díaz TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ TB |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Ketel Marte · Total BasesJames Wood · Total BasesJake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIsKyle Schwarber · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 900 🔴 Demons / 241 🟢 Goblins / 37 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 4/10 40% | 80.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Falter (9.00 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Paul Goldschmidt NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 3/10 30% | 79.2 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Falter (9.00 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Dillon Dingler DET | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 4/10 40% | 74.5 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Kochanowicz (5.04 ERA) |
| 4 | Trent Grisham NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 3/10 30% | 73.8 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Falter (9.00 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 3/10 30% | 72.0 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park |
| 6 | Cody Bellinger NYY | 0.5 | MORE | 50 | 8/10 80% | 70.7 | Great bat 🔥 · facing BP-arm Falter (9.00 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Shohei Ohtani LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 8/10 80% | 70.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 8 | Casey Schmitt🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 6/10 60% | 70.4 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ NYY |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | LAA @ DET |
| 3 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | NYM @ CIN |
Why:
- 3 separate games (KC @ NYY / LAA @ DET / NYM @ CIN) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 37% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.40x (EV $-0.60/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 5% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 26% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ NYY |
| 2 | Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | LAA @ DET |
| 3 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | NYM @ CIN |
| 4 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | COL @ LAD |
Why:
- Add Shohei Ohtani at COL @ LAD
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.55x (EV $-0.45/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 21% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from KC @ NYY — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ NYY |
| 2 | Paul Goldschmidt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | KC @ NYY |
| 3 | Trent Grisham | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | KC @ NYY |
| 4 | Cody Bellinger | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | KC @ NYY |
Why:
- 4 batters from KC @ NYY → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.45x (EV $-0.55/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 3% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 18% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Daniel Schneemann, Riley Greene, Wenceel Pérez, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, Konnor Griffin
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 12 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
81.0% combined
EV $+1.43–$+3.05/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ BOS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
72.9% combined
EV $+3.37–$+6.87/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ BOS
🟢 GOBSpencer Horwitz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBSpencer Steer Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYM @ CIN
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
58.3% combined
EV $+4.25–$+9.50/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ BOS
🔴 DEMKeibert Ruiz Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ WSH
🟢 GOBSpencer Horwitz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBSpencer Steer Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYM @ CIN
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d9 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-26T05:44.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 23% | 52 | $-96.51 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 23% (52 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-btts_no — 50% (12 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 0 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bazvs TB | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.7 | +2.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 108 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-2526 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ MIL | Michael McGreevy vs Kyle Harrison | 0.783 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ BOS | Spencer Strider vs Ranger Suarez | 0.815 | 44% | 2.26x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ TOR | Sandy Alcantara vs Braydon Fisher | 0.872 | 42% | 2.39x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CIN @ NYM | Chase Burns vs TBD | 0.889 | 41% | 2.43x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ ATH | Emerson Hancock vs Luis Severino | 0.97 | 38% | 2.64x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ SD | Aaron Nola vs Randy Vásquez | 0.994 | 37% | 2.7x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ LAD | Kyle Freeland vs Eric Lauer | 1.529 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ TEX | Jason Alexander vs Jack Leiter | 1.277 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TB @ BAL | Griffin Jax vs Shane Baz | 1.149 | 68% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ KC | Cam Schlittler vs Bailey Falter | 1.117 | 67% | 1.49x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ CLE | Cade Cavalli vs Joey Cantillo | 1.088 | 66% | 1.51x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ DET | Jack Kochanowicz vs Keider Montero | 1.077 | 66% | 1.52x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-26 06:10:56 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-26.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-26.json