Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-7.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 7 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 29 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks13 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Bryson Stott PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Hao-Yu Lee DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ DET |
| Harry Ford WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | TOR @ WSH |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Michael Harris II ATL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Ernie Clement TOR also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | WSH @ TOR |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | DET @ BAL |
| CJ Abrams WSH also locks: Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ WSH |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Nick Gonzales · Total Bases 70%🟢 Hao-Yu Lee · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Harry Ford · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Eduardo Valencia DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ DET |
| Eduardo Valencia DET | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ DET |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Tyrone Taylor NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | +20.0pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | DET @ BAL |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | AZ @ PIT |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIsEduardo Valencia · Hits+Runs+RBIsGabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIsNick Gonzales · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1113 🔴 Demons / 254 🟢 Goblins / 38 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 6/10 60% | 75.4 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Scott |
| 2 | Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 5/10 50% | 72.9 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Rodriguez (4.99 ERA) |
| 3 | Riley Greene DET | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 5/10 50% | 69.3 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing average Rogers |
| 4 | Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 2/10 20% | 68.4 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Littell (6.27 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 67.0 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing average Scott |
| 6 | Bryce Harper PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 4/10 40% | 65.9 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Gusto |
| 7 | Bryan Reynolds PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 4/10 40% | 64.9 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Rodriguez (4.99 ERA) |
| 8 | Dillon Dingler DET | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 4/10 40% | 64.3 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Rogers |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | NYM @ ATL |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TOR @ WSH |
| 3 | Kevin McGonigle | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | BAL @ DET |
Why:
- 3 separate games (NYM @ ATL / TOR @ WSH / BAL @ DET) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.60x (EV $-0.40/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 7% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
J.T. Realmuto, Otto Lopez, Ildemaro Vargas, Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, Mauricio Dubón, Bo Bichette
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 5 Demons + 11 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · MIA @ PHI
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · PIT @ AZ
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · MIA @ PHI
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · PIT @ AZ
🟢 GOBHarry Ford Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · TOR @ WSH
🟢 GOBNick Gonzales Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · AZ @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
39.2% combined
EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · MIA @ PHI
🔴 DEMGabriel Moreno Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · PIT @ AZ
🔴 DEMNick Gonzales Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · AZ @ PIT
🟢 GOBHarry Ford Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · TOR @ WSH
🟢 GOBMichael Harris II Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYM @ ATL
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-29T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 69% | 128 | $+4.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 65% | 96 | $+2.80 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 49% | 53 | $-8.95 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 783 | $-3.90 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 175 | $-37.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 953 | $-21.70 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (953 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (175 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (783 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 49% (53 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays6 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 4 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littellvs TOR | Pitches Thrown | MORE 79.5 | 95.0 | +15.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Trey Yesavagevs WSH | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 30.945 | +4.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| MacKenzie Gorevs TB | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 28.5 | 32.098 | +3.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Trevor Rogersvs DET | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Zack Littellvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 20.5 | 23.782 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Zack Littellvs TOR | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.4 | +2.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2830 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ MIN | Randy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan | 0.823 | 44% | 2.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ NYM | Chris Sale vs Christian Scott | 0.851 | 43% | 2.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ CWS | Cam Schlittler vs Davis Martin | 0.876 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ PIT | Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jared Jones | 0.896 | 41% | 2.45x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BAL @ DET | Trevor Rogers vs Tarik Skubal | 0.927 | 40% | 2.53x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| COL @ SD | Gabriel Hughes vs TBD | 0.957 | 38% | 2.6x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ WSH | Trey Yesavage vs Zack Littell | 1.356 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | Matthew Boyd vs Dustin May | 1.329 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ LAA | Hayden Wesneski vs Grayson Rodriguez | 1.303 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ NYM | AJ Smith-Shawver vs Sean Manaea | 1.258 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TEX @ TB | MacKenzie Gore vs Casey Legumina | 1.201 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BOS @ ATH | Patrick Sandoval vs Jacob Lopez | 1.15 | 68% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-29 09:16:39 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-29.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-29.json