Money Slate · 2026-07-07

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+4.43. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	+$3.00	11W / 4L	2 live	🔥 WINNING
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	—	no slate today
PORTFOLIO	+$3.00	11W / 4L	12 live	73% hit

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks18 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Colt Emerson SEA	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	MIA @ SEA
Liam Hicks MIA also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	SEA @ MIA
Mauricio Dubón ATL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	PIT @ ATL
Austin Riley ATL	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	PIT @ ATL
Bryan Reynolds PIT	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	ATL @ PIT
Freddie Freeman LAD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	COL @ LAD
Ian Happ CHC	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	BAL @ CHC
Kevin McGonigle DET	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	ATH @ DET
Nick Kurtz ATH	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	DET @ ATH
Nicky Lopez TEX	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	LAA @ TEX
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	BAL @ CHC
Zack Gelof ATH also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	DET @ ATH

Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~55% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.97/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Joshua Kuroda-Grauer · Hits+Runs+RBIs 86%🔴 Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Ezequiel Duran · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Mauricio Dubón · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	86% (6/7)	+45.7pp	DET @ ATH
Rafael Devers SF	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	TOR @ SF
Trent Grisham NYY	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	TB @ NYY
TJ Rumfield COL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	LAD @ COL
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	BAL @ CHC
Liam Hicks MIA	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	80% (8/10)	+40.0pp	SEA @ MIA
Mauricio Dubón ATL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	PIT @ ATL
Cole Carrigg COL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	LAD @ COL
Kyle Karros COL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	LAD @ COL
Kyle Karros COL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	LAD @ COL
Heliot Ramos SF	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	TOR @ SF
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH	Hits 🔴 DEMON	1.5	57% (4/7)	+17.1pp	DET @ ATH

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer · Hits+Runs+RBIsRafael Devers · Hits+Runs+RBIsTrent Grisham · Hits+Runs+RBIsTJ Rumfield · Hits+Runs+RBIs

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 1144 🔴 Demons / 237 🟢 Goblins / 38 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Garrett Mitchell🔥 HOT MIL	1.5	MORE	41	7/10 70%	68.3	Solid bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · crushing the ball
2	Jackson Chourio MIL	2.5	MORE	59	4/10 40%	64.7	Solid bat · hitting it hard
3	Jake Bauers MIL	1.5	MORE	51	3/10 30%	59.8	Solid bat · hitting it hard
4	Jordan Walker STL	1.5	MORE	45	4/10 40%	59.0	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Gasser (ace, 3.29 ERA)
5	Cooper Pratt MIL	1.5	MORE	41	1/10 10%	57.9	Above-avg bat
6	Brice Turang MIL	1.5	MORE	60	6/10 60%	56.1	Solid bat
7	JJ Wetherholt STL	1.5	MORE	55	5/10 50%	48.1	Solid bat · tough matchup — Gasser (ace, 3.29 ERA)
8	Christian Yelich MIL	1.5	MORE	47	3/10 30%	47.9	Below-avg bat

High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)

All 4 from STL @ MIL — bigger upside, bigger variance.

#	Player	Stat	Line	Side	L10	Game
1	Garrett Mitchell	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	7/10 70%	STL @ MIL
2	Jackson Chourio	Total Bases	2.5	MORE	4/10 40%	STL @ MIL
3	Jake Bauers	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	3/10 30%	STL @ MIL
4	Cooper Pratt	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	1/10 10%	STL @ MIL

Why:

4 batters from STL @ MIL → correlated
If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together

📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)

Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 38% · need 55.0% per leg

Expected payout: 0.22x (EV $-0.78/$1)

Hit	P(k)	Pays
4/4	1%	6.0x
3/4	11%	1.5x

Auto-faded (caught by gates):

Lars Nootbaar

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-08T05:34.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	69%	178	$+6.60
🟡UNKNOWN	56%	96	$+26.45
🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks	52%	180	$+0.60
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	42%	1176	$-17.80
🔴MLB-Total Bases	42%	250	$-42.00
🔴Tennis-Total Games	40%	1341	$-28.10

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 40% (1341 picks)
🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 42% (250 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1176 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Tie Breaks — 52% (180 picks)

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted

Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.

Pitcher	Stat	Side	Proj	Edge	Signal	Why
Joey Cantillovs MIN	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 25.5	28.934	+3.4pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)
Shane Bazvs CHC	Earned Runs Allowed	MORE 2.5	5.2	+2.7pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 109 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-0616 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅NORMAL / SKIP	1/1	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
LAA @ TEX	José Soriano vs Jacob deGrom	0.865	42%	2.38x	⚡ Kalshi NO
ATH @ DET	J.T. Ginn vs Tarik Skubal	0.903	40%	2.47x	⚡ Kalshi NO
PHI @ CIN	Zack Wheeler vs Andrew Abbott	0.913	40%	2.49x	⚡ Kalshi NO
TOR @ SF	Spencer Miles vs Trevor McDonald	0.922	40%	2.51x	⚡ Kalshi NO
SEA @ MIA	TBD vs Max Meyer	0.926	40%	2.53x	⚡ Kalshi NO
ATL @ PIT	Hurston Waldrep vs Paul Skenes	1.036	36%	2.82x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
CHC @ BAL	Matthew Boyd vs Shane Baz	1.405	76%	1.32x	⚡ Kalshi YES
HOU @ WSH	Tatsuya Imai vs Andrew Alvarez	1.363	74%	1.34x	⚡ Kalshi YES
AZ @ SD	Zac Gallen vs Germán Márquez	1.353	74%	1.35x	⚡ Kalshi YES
COL @ LAD	Michael Lorenzen vs Justin Wrobleski	1.293	72%	1.38x	⚡ Kalshi YES
MIL @ STL	Jacob Misiorowski vs Matt Svanson	1.229	71%	1.41x	⚡ Kalshi YES
MIL @ STL	Robert Gasser vs Hunter Dobbins	1.198	70%	1.43x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

📋 Today's Results (11 locked)

Today's Results — Settled + Live

11 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.

Sport	Pick	Market	Edge	State
MLB	Jorge Soler ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+93.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Wade Meckler ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+90.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Shohei Ohtani ⚪ Over 1.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+90.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Nasim Nuñez ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+86.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Isaac Collins ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+83.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Elias Díaz ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+73.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Kyle Schwarber ⚪ Over 1.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+65.0pp	✅ WON
MLB	Jazz Chisholm Jr. ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+1.3pp	✅ WON
MLB	Victor Bericoto ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+1.3pp	✅ WON
MLB	Richie Palacios ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+1.1pp	✅ WON
MLB	Mike Yastrzemski ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases	MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks)	+1.1pp	✅ WON

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+4.43 (20 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-07-07 22:35:25 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-07.json