Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-53.29. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 34 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | -$2.00 | 0W / 1L | 48 live | 0% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
3 ranked
ELITE · +16.8pp
Paderborn vs Wolfsburg
2026-05-25 Paderborn v Wolfsburg · Match winner
$0
→ $0.00
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $6 total stake · 2 fires
Real Money Plan — Kalshi + PrizePicks (CA-legal)
| Sport | Pick | Market | Side | Tier | Edge | Stake | Max Payout | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Elly De La Cruz | Home run (Kalshi) | Will hit a home run | STRONG | +5.5pp | $3 | $21.43 | Fire on Kalshi → |
| MLB | Aaron Judge | Home run (Kalshi) | Will hit a home run | STRONG | +4.4pp | $3 | $11.11 | Fire on Kalshi → |
| TOTAL (2 fires) | $6 | $32.54 | ||||||
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
| Pick | Current | Open | Move | Raw Edge | Vig-Adj Edge | Price Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾Elly De La Cruz | 14¢ | 13¢ | -1.0pp | +5.5pp | +6.7pp | 🟠 pricier 1-2¢ |
| ⚾Aaron Judge | 27¢ | 27¢ | +0.0pp | +4.4pp | +1.7pp | ⚪ flat |
Open vs current Kalshi YES-ask. Vig-Adj Edge applies favorite-longshot bias correction. Price Move: 🟢 cheaper = better entry now · 🔴 pricier = worse entry. Threshold ±3¢ big move, ±1¢ small move. 2 tracked tickers.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks14 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ MIL |
| Oneil Cruz PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ STL |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ AZ |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Junior Caminero TB also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ TB |
| Marcell Ozuna PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Spencer Steer CIN also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Adrian Del Castillo AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SF @ AZ |
| Bobby Witt Jr. KC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYY @ KC |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYM @ CIN |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~50% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.08/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Ketel Marte · Total Bases 90%🔴 Spencer Steer · Total Bases 80%🔴 Nolan Gorman · Total Bases 70%🟢 Brice Turang · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Oneil Cruz · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons14 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | SF @ AZ |
| Nolan Gorman STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ STL |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Blake Dunn CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Ryan Kreidler MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ MIN |
| Spencer Steer CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SF @ AZ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | KC @ NYY |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Yandy Díaz TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ TB |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Ketel Marte · Total BasesNolan Gorman · Total BasesElly De La Cruz · Total BasesRyan Kreidler · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 773 🔴 Demons / 204 🟢 Goblins / 26 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Ewing NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 2/10 20% | 72.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lodolo (7.44 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Brice Turang MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 3/10 30% | 70.1 | Great bat 🔥 · facing BP-arm Liberatore (5.67 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Ian Happ CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 3/10 30% | 69.8 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Mlodzinski (4.66 ERA) |
| 4 | Michael Busch🔥 HOT CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 4/10 40% | 69.6 | Solid bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Mlodzinski (4 |
| 5 | Jackson Chourio MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 4/10 40% | 69.6 | Below-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Liberatore (5.67 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Ben Rice NYY | 0.5 | MORE | 52 | 6/10 60% | 68.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Wacha (ace, 3.87 ERA) |
| 7 | Bo Bichette🔥 HOT NYM | 0.5 | MORE | 58 | 6/10 60% | 67.5 | Average bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Lodolo (7.44 recent ERA) |
| 8 | Josh Bell🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 4/10 40% | 67.3 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Kay (5.93 rec |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Ewing | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CIN @ NYM |
| 2 | Brice Turang | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | STL @ MIL |
| 3 | Michael Busch | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ CHC |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CIN @ NYM / STL @ MIL / PIT @ CHC) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 30% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.26x (EV $-0.74/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 2% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 19% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Ewing | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CIN @ NYM |
| 2 | Brice Turang | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | STL @ MIL |
| 3 | Michael Busch | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ CHC |
| 4 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | KC @ NYY |
Why:
- Add Ben Rice at KC @ NYY
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 38% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.27x (EV $-0.73/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 1% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 12% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Andrew Vaughn, Brooks Lee, Aaron Judge, Vinnie Pasquantino, Carter Jensen
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 5 Demons + 9 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+1.16–$+2.60/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYM @ CIN
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+3.32–$+6.78/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYM @ CIN
🟢 GOBOneil Cruz Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBBrice Turang Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ MIL
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
50.4% combined
EV $+3.54–$+8.07/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYM @ CIN
🔴 DEMNolan Gorman Total Bases MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ STL
🟢 GOBOneil Cruz Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBBrice Turang Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ MIL
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d9 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-25T05:43.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 17% | 41 | $-111.10 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 17% (41 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-btts_no — 50% (12 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays3 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinskivs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 28.343 | +5.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Will Warrenvs KC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 32.34 | +4.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Merrill Kellyvs SF | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-2430 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ KC | Will Warren vs Michael Wacha | 0.797 | 45% | 2.22x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ SD | Jesús Luzardo vs Randy Vásquez | 0.93 | 40% | 2.53x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ BAL | Shane McClanahan vs Kyle Bradish | 0.96 | 38% | 2.61x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CHC @ PIT | Ben Brown vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 1.011 | 36% | 2.75x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ TOR | Janson Junk vs Trey Yesavage | 1.026 | 36% | 2.79x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ CWS | Zebby Matthews vs Anthony Kay | 1.063 | 34% | 2.89x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ LAD | Tanner Gordon vs Emmet Sheehan | 1.455 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ CLE | Zack Littell vs Tanner Bibee | 1.382 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ ATH | Luis Castillo vs Aaron Civale | 1.14 | 68% | 1.47x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ MIL | Matthew Liberatore vs Jacob Misiorowski | 1.102 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ NYM | Nick Lodolo vs Nolan McLean | 1.096 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SF | Merrill Kelly vs Landen Roupp | 1.081 | 66% | 1.51x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (1 uncorrelated)
2-leg parlay #1
MLBElly De La Cruz — Will hit a home run7.14x
MLBAaron Judge — Will hit a home run3.70x
Stake: $5PP Power Play: $132.28 (26.46x · SD)+25% boost: $165.34P(hit): 0%EV: -100.0%
💡 Kalshi doesn't parlay natively — fire on PrizePicks. Synthetic Kalshi roll-over (theoretical max if you re-staked each leg): $132.28
📋 Today's Results (3 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
0 WON · 0 LOST · 3 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Ian Happ Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | +6.9pp | 🟡 LIVE |
| MLB | Brandon Lowe Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | +5.9pp | 🟡 LIVE |
| MLB | Junior Caminero Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | -1.6pp | 🟡 LIVE |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-25 10:40:51 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-25.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-25.json