Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-11.99. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 27 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 37 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ KC |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ CIN |
| James Outman DET | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ DET |
| Shea Langeliers ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ ATH |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ ATL |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ PHI |
| Chandler Simpson TB also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ TB |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Kevin McGonigle DET also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ DET |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 James Wood · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Carter Jensen · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CIN @ CHC |
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ ATL |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATH @ CWS |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ KC |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Liam Hicks · Hits+Runs+RBIsGarrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsKeibert Ruiz · Hits+Runs+RBIsPete Crow-Armstrong · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1089 🔴 Demons / 247 🟢 Goblins / 28 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 5/10 50% | 77.2 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Boyd (4.55 ER |
| 2 | James Wood🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 8/10 80% | 77.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Warren |
| 3 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 6/10 60% | 75.3 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Cavalli |
| 4 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 5/10 50% | 74.3 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Boyd (4.55 ERA) |
| 5 | Bobby Witt Jr.🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 4/10 40% | 74.1 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Baz (4.51 E |
| 6 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 4/10 40% | 73.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Ginn |
| 7 | Shea Langeliers ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 1/10 10% | 72.8 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Schultz (6.04 recent ERA) |
| 8 | Pete Alonso BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 3/10 30% | 72.5 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Lugo (5.41 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ CIN |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | NYY @ WSH |
| 3 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ NYY |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CHC @ CIN / NYY @ WSH / WSH @ NYY) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 63% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.18x (EV +$0.18/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 24% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 46% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ CIN |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | NYY @ WSH |
| 3 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ NYY |
| 4 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | BAL @ KC |
Why:
- Add Bobby Witt Jr. at BAL @ KC
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 57% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.07x (EV +$0.07/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 10% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 33% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Brandon Lowe, Michael Massey, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Stephenson, Ian Happ, Travis Bazzana, Liam Hicks, Jonathan Aranda
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMJames Wood Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ WSH
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMJames Wood Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ WSH
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIL @ PIT
🟢 GOBEugenio Suárez Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ CIN
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🔴 DEMJames Wood Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ WSH
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · PIT @ MIL
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIL @ PIT
🟢 GOBEugenio Suárez Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ CIN
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-12T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 69% | 176 | $+6.80 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 175 | $+0.70 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 92 | $+1.10 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1103 | $-16.90 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 274 | $-56.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1301 | $-28.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1301 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (274 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1103 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (92 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays8 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 4 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germán Márquezvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 18.5 | 24.092 | +5.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Emerson Hancockvs TB | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 29.248 | +4.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Emmet Sheehanvs AZ | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 32.158 | +4.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Cade Cavallivs NYY | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 30.352 | +3.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Michael Lorenzenvs SF | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 21.5 | 24.553 | +3.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 95 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Tyler Phillipsvs CLE | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 4.5 | +3.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| J.T. Ginnvs CWS | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 104 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Emerson Hancockvs TB | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.1 | +2.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-1132 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ DET | Zack Wheeler vs Tarik Skubal | 0.802 | 45% | 2.23x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ MIA | Joey Cantillo vs Tyler Phillips | 0.87 | 42% | 2.39x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ MIN | José Soriano vs Taj Bradley | 0.953 | 39% | 2.59x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TB | Emerson Hancock vs Ian Seymour | 0.976 | 38% | 2.65x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ NYM | Payton Tolle vs Zach Thornton | 1.025 | 36% | 2.79x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ STL | Danny Young vs Dustin May | 1.089 | 34% | 2.97x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ SF | Michael Lorenzen vs Trevor McDonald | 1.482 | 77% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ TEX | Cristian Javier vs MacKenzie Gore | 1.36 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ WSH | Will Warren vs Cade Cavalli | 1.297 | 73% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ SD | Kevin Gausman vs Germán Márquez | 1.257 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ CIN | Matthew Boyd vs Andrew Abbott | 1.251 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ CWS | J.T. Ginn vs Noah Schultz | 1.22 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-12 09:11:30 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-12.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-12.json