Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+5.88. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 15 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 25 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ PIT |
| Carlos Narváez BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ SEA |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BAL @ CHC |
| Liam Hicks MIA also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SEA @ MIA |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ PIT |
| Carson Benge NYM | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ NYM |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ CIN |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ LAD |
| Kevin McGonigle DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATH @ DET |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~41% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.16/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Joshua Kuroda-Grauer · Hits+Runs+RBIs 83%🔴 TJ Rumfield · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Brooks Lee · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Carlos Narváez · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 83% (5/6) | +43.3pp | DET @ ATH |
| TJ Rumfield COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Brooks Lee MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Kyle Karros COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Byron Buxton MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ MIA |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ WSH |
| Luke Keaschall MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Josh Bell MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Liam Hicks MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ MIA |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer · Hits+Runs+RBIsTJ Rumfield · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrooks Lee · Hits+Runs+RBIsOtto Lopez · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1071 🔴 Demons / 236 🟢 Goblins / 42 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 7/10 70% | 82.5 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Schultz (5.48 ERA) |
| 2 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 5/10 50% | 80.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Lugo (5.34 ERA) |
| 3 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 68 | 7/10 70% | 77.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Imai (4.90 ERA) |
| 4 | Francisco Alvarez🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 5/10 50% | 75.8 | Average bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Lugo (5.3 |
| 5 | Riley Greene🔥 HOT DET | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 6/10 60% | 74.3 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Ginn |
| 6 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 4/10 40% | 73.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Alvarez |
| 7 | Bryce Harper PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 5/10 50% | 72.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Abbott (4.86 ERA) |
| 8 | Shohei Ohtani LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 3/10 30% | 71.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willson Contreras | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | CWS @ BOS |
| 2 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | KC @ NYM |
| 3 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | HOU @ WSH |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CWS @ BOS / KC @ NYM / HOU @ WSH) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 63% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.19x (EV +$0.19/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 24% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 45% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willson Contreras | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | CWS @ BOS |
| 2 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | KC @ NYM |
| 3 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | HOU @ WSH |
| 4 | Riley Greene | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | ATH @ DET |
Why:
- Add Riley Greene at ATH @ DET
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 62% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.44x (EV +$0.44/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 15% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 37% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Lars Nootbaar, Ian Happ, Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Carson Kelly, Liam Hicks, Xavier Edwards, Josh Naylor
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 10 Demons + 16 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
58.3% combined
EV $+0.75–$+1.92/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMJoshua Kuroda-Grauer Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
5/6 L10 (83%) · DET @ ATH
🔴 DEMTJ Rumfield Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAD @ COL
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
58.3% combined
EV $+2.50–$+5.30/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMJoshua Kuroda-Grauer Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
5/6 L10 (83%) · DET @ ATH
🔴 DEMTJ Rumfield Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAD @ COL
🟢 GOBIan Happ Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BAL @ CHC
🟢 GOBLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SEA @ MIA
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
40.8% combined
EV $+2.67–$+6.35/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMJoshua Kuroda-Grauer Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
5/6 L10 (83%) · DET @ ATH
🔴 DEMTJ Rumfield Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAD @ COL
🔴 DEMBrooks Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ MIN
🟢 GOBIan Happ Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · BAL @ CHC
🟢 GOBLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SEA @ MIA
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-07T05:33.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 175 | $+6.30 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 57% | 94 | $+30.45 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 51% | 178 | $+0.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1163 | $-17.90 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 233 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1329 | $-28.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Pitcher Ks | 38% | 8 | $-2.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 38% (8 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1329 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (233 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1163 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-0616 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA @ TEX | José Soriano vs Jacob deGrom | 0.865 | 42% | 2.38x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATH @ DET | J.T. Ginn vs Tarik Skubal | 0.903 | 40% | 2.47x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ MIA | TBD vs Max Meyer | 0.926 | 40% | 2.53x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ STL | Jacob Misiorowski vs TBD | 1.034 | 36% | 2.81x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ PIT | Hurston Waldrep vs Paul Skenes | 1.036 | 36% | 2.82x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ NYM | Seth Lugo vs TBD | 1.057 | 35% | 2.88x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC @ BAL | Matthew Boyd vs Shane Baz | 1.405 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ WSH | Tatsuya Imai vs Andrew Alvarez | 1.363 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SD | Zac Gallen vs Germán Márquez | 1.353 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ LAD | Michael Lorenzen vs Justin Wrobleski | 1.293 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ STL | TBD vs TBD | 1.24 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BOS @ CWS | Payton Tolle vs Noah Schultz | 1.165 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-07 06:18:14 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-07.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-07.json