Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-47.80. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 3 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks21 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | CHC @ MIN |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ NYY |
| Brandon Lowe PIT also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ SF |
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ KC |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Casey Schmitt SF | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SEA @ SF |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs ⚪ STANDARD | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +30pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | STL @ AZ |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~26% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$4.18/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 80%🔴 Brice Turang · Total Bases 60%🔴 Chase DeLauter · Total Bases 60%🟢 Ryan Jeffers · Hits 100%🟢 Ben Rice · Hits 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons8 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ MIL |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ CLE |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ KC |
| Justin Crawford PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ PHI |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ NYM |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PIT |
| Ben Rice NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ NYY |
| Casey Schmitt SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ SF |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Brice Turang · Total BasesChase DeLauter · Total BasesLane Thomas · Total BasesJustin Crawford · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 46 🔴 Demons / 0 🟢 Goblins / 34 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 6/10 60% | 73.0 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 70.4 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 3 | Heliot Ramos🔥 HOT SF | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 68.4 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 4 | Bobby Witt Jr.🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 67.9 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard |
| 5 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 2.5 | MORE | 55 | 2/10 20% | 67.6 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park |
| 6 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 5/10 50% | 67.6 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 7 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 4/10 40% | 67.0 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball |
| 8 | Bryan Reynolds🔥 HOT PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 66.1 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | LAD @ NYY |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TOR @ CWS |
| 3 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SEA @ SF |
Why:
- 3 separate games (LAD @ NYY / TOR @ CWS / SEA @ SF) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.74x (EV $-0.26/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | LAD @ NYY |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TOR @ CWS |
| 3 | Heliot Ramos | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SEA @ SF |
| 4 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SD @ KC |
Why:
- Add Bobby Witt Jr. at SD @ KC
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.73x (EV $-0.27/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 6% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 25% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Bo Bichette, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Brandon Lowe, William Contreras, Ian Happ, Brooks Lee, Jac Caglianone
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-15T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 71% | 178 | $+7.60 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 53% | 179 | $+1.10 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 93 | $+3.65 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1025 | $-15.30 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 261 | $-53.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1296 | $-31.80 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1296 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (261 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1025 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (93 picks)
NRFI/YRFI predictions not yet available for today.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-15 06:15:08 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-15.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-15.json