Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-7.32. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | +$7.32 | 3W / 2L | 5 live | ↑ up |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | +$7.32 | 3W / 2L | 15 live | 60% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ PHI |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Carson Benge NYM also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ NYM |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ LAD |
| Bo Bichette NYM | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | KC @ NYM |
| Bobby Witt Jr. KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYM @ KC |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | AZ @ SD |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ AZ |
| Heliot Ramos SF also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ SF |
| Jac Caglianone KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYM @ KC |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAD @ COL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~31% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.17/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Trent Grisham · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Kyle Karros · Total Bases 70%🔴 Mauricio Dubón · Total Bases 70%🟢 Brandon Marsh · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Carson Benge · Hits 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons13 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Kyle Karros COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ ATL |
| Luis Arraez SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ SF |
| Mookie Betts LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | COL @ LAD |
| James Wood WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ WSH |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Trent Grisham NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Nolan Arenado AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ AZ |
| Junior Caminero TB | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 3.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ TB |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Trent Grisham · Hits+Runs+RBIsKyle Karros · Total BasesMauricio Dubón · Total BasesLuis Arraez · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 611 🔴 Demons / 138 🟢 Goblins / 32 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 6/10 60% | 71.9 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.90 ERA) |
| 2 | Brandon Marsh🔥 HOT PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 4/10 40% | 67.4 | Average bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cameron (4 |
| 3 | Jac Caglianone KC | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 3/10 30% | 59.2 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Sánchez (ace, 2.91 ERA) |
| 4 | Bobby Witt Jr.🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 4/10 40% | 59.0 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Sánchez (ace, |
| 5 | Bryson Stott PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 3/10 30% | 56.7 | Below-avg bat · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.90 ERA) |
| 6 | Trea Turner🔥 HOT PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 5/10 50% | 54.3 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.90 ERA) |
| 7 | Alec Bohm PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 52.0 | Below-avg bat · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.90 ERA) |
| 8 | J.T. Realmuto PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 4/10 40% | 50.3 | Below-avg bat · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.90 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from KC @ PHI — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | KC @ PHI |
| 2 | Brandon Marsh | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ PHI |
| 3 | Bryson Stott | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | KC @ PHI |
| 4 | Trea Turner | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | KC @ PHI |
Why:
- 4 batters from KC @ PHI → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.51x (EV $-0.49/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 20% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Kyle Schwarber, Salvador Perez, Lane Thomas
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-07T05:33.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 175 | $+6.30 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 57% | 94 | $+30.45 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 51% | 178 | $+0.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1163 | $-17.90 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 233 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1329 | $-28.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Pitcher Ks | 38% | 8 | $-2.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 38% (8 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1329 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (233 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1163 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peraltavs ATL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 27.895 | +3.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TB | Cam Schlittler vs Griffin Jax | 0.868 | 42% | 2.38x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ KC | Cristopher Sánchez vs Noah Cameron | 0.997 | 37% | 2.71x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ SF | Kevin Gausman vs Landen Roupp | 1.104 | 33% | 3.02x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ ATL | Freddy Peralta vs Reynaldo López | 1.131 | 32% | 3.1x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ STL | Shane Drohan vs Dustin May | 1.223 | 29% | 3.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ SD | Brandon Pfaadt vs Walker Buehler | 1.272 | 28% | 3.57x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ WSH | Mike Burrows vs Miles Mikolas | 1.631 | 80% | 1.24x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ LAD | Kyle Freeland vs Eric Lauer | 1.597 | 80% | 1.25x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SD | Brandon Pfaadt vs Walker Buehler | 1.272 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ STL | Shane Drohan vs Dustin May | 1.223 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYM @ ATL | Freddy Peralta vs Reynaldo López | 1.131 | 68% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ SF | Kevin Gausman vs Landen Roupp | 1.104 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (3 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
3 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | José Caballero ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +73.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Richie Palacios ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.1pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Mike Yastrzemski ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.1pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-06 22:34:20 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-06.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-06.json