Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-43.06. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$14.00 | 5W / 9L | 6 live | 🚨 SMOKED |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | -$14.00 | 5W / 9L | 16 live | 36% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Shea Langeliers ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ ATH |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ ATL |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ PHI |
| Chandler Simpson TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ TB |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIA @ CLE |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ CHC |
| Kevin McGonigle DET also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ DET |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CIN @ CHC |
| Wyatt Langford TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | HOU @ TEX |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Pete Crow-Armstrong · Total Bases 80%🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 80%🔴 Jordan Walker · Total Bases 80%🟢 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Shea Langeliers · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CIN @ CHC |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ CLE |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ AZ |
| Lane Thomas KC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | BAL @ KC |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ MIA |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
| Luis Arraez SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | COL @ SF |
| Yainer Diaz HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATH @ CWS |
| Jordan Walker STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | ATL @ STL |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ WSH |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Pete Crow-Armstrong · Total BasesBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIsGabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIsLane Thomas · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1159 🔴 Demons / 255 🟢 Goblins / 39 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice🔥 HOT NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 5/10 50% | 81.0 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Palmquist (1 |
| 2 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 7/10 70% | 77.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Weathers (4.62 ERA) |
| 3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 8/10 80% | 72.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Greene (21.60 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Junior Caminero🔥 HOT TB | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 5/10 50% | 72.6 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (14% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Castillo |
| 5 | Michael Conforto🔥 HOT CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 4/10 40% | 72.4 | Solid bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Greene (21.60 re |
| 6 | Dominic Canzone SEA | 0.5 | MORE | 41 | 6/10 60% | 71.8 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Martinez (4.68 ERA) |
| 7 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 4/10 40% | 71.7 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Lopez |
| 8 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 4/10 40% | 71.4 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Flaherty |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | WSH @ NYY |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | NYY @ WSH |
| 3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | CIN @ CHC |
Why:
- 3 separate games (WSH @ NYY / NYY @ WSH / CIN @ CHC) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 67% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.31x (EV +$0.31/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 28% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 47% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | WSH @ NYY |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | NYY @ WSH |
| 3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 8/10 80% | CIN @ CHC |
| 4 | Junior Caminero | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SEA @ TB |
Why:
- Add Junior Caminero at SEA @ TB
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 62% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.40x (EV +$0.40/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 14% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 38% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Bryson Stott, Dillon Dingler, Paul Goldschmidt, Curtis Mead, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jac Caglianone, Adley Rutschman
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 7 Demons + 15 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+1.16–$+2.60/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ KC
🔴 DEMEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIL @ PIT
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+3.32–$+6.78/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ KC
🔴 DEMEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIL @ PIT
🟢 GOBPete Crow-Armstrong Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CIN @ CHC
🟢 GOBEugenio Suárez Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ CIN
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
57.6% combined
EV $+4.18–$+9.37/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ KC
🔴 DEMEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIL @ PIT
🔴 DEMLiam Hicks Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIA
🟢 GOBPete Crow-Armstrong Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CIN @ CHC
🟢 GOBEugenio Suárez Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ CIN
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-11T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 182 | $+7.20 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 180 | $+0.80 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 100 | $+4.79 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1151 | $-16.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 41% | 264 | $-50.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1336 | $-28.80 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1336 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (264 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1151 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (100 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays6 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanagavs CIN | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Braxton Ashcraftvs MIL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 4.6 | +3.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Ryan Weathersvs WSH | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 29.5 | 32.503 | +3.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Luis Castillovs TB | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Aaron Nolavs DET | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.8 | +2.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Ryan Weathersvs WSH | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-0926 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ NYM | Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLean | 0.766 | 46% | 2.15x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ LAD | Eduardo Rodriguez vs Shohei Ohtani | 0.791 | 45% | 2.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ TEX | Hunter Brown vs Cal Quantrill | 0.886 | 41% | 2.42x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ MIA | Parker Messick vs Sandy Alcantara | 0.891 | 41% | 2.44x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TB | Luis Castillo vs Nick Martinez | 0.999 | 37% | 2.71x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ STL | Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy | 1.01 | 36% | 2.74x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ WSH | Ryan Weathers vs Carson Palmquist | 1.594 | 80% | 1.25x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ MIN | Grayson Rodriguez vs Zebby Matthews | 1.469 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ CIN | Shota Imanaga vs Hunter Greene | 1.455 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ PIT | Brandon Sproat vs Braxton Ashcraft | 1.393 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ DET | Aaron Nola vs Jack Flaherty | 1.351 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ SD | Shane Bieber vs JP Sears | 1.242 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (5 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
5 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Shohei Ohtani ⚪ Over 1.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +90.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | James Outman ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +87.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Brett Baty ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.2pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Richie Palacios ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.1pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Jakob Marsee ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.1pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-10 22:37:27 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-10.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-10.json