Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-80.32. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 14 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 11 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 25 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
1 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ STL |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ MIL |
| Cole Carrigg COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | ATH @ COL |
| Jordan Walker STL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ STL |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Luis Arraez SF also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ SF |
| Rafael Devers SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ SF |
| Troy Johnston COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATH @ COL |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | KC @ HOU |
| Zack Gelof ATH also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | COL @ ATH |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ CHC |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Alec Burleson · Total Bases 80%🔴 Michael Busch · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Michael Harris II · Total Bases 70%🟢 Christian Yelich · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Cole Carrigg · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Busch CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SF @ CHC |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ BOS |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ BOS |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | MIA @ PIT |
| Alec Burleson STL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIN @ STL |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Tristan Peters CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ MIL |
| Tristan Peters CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ CWS |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ PHI |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Michael Busch · Hits+Runs+RBIsGarrett Mitchell · Total BasesChase Meidroth · Hits+Runs+RBIsWillson Contreras · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1022 🔴 Demons / 264 🟢 Goblins / 42 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Kurtz🔥 HOT ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 61 | 4/10 40% | 83.8 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.54 |
| 2 | Dominic Canzone🔥 HOT SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 4/10 40% | 79.3 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Mikolas |
| 3 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 6/10 60% | 77.9 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Eovaldi (4.63 ERA) |
| 4 | Shea Langeliers ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 6/10 60% | 77.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.54 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 9/10 90% | 77.2 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Fedde (4.63 ERA) |
| 6 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 3/10 30% | 77.1 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Gallen (5.53 recent E |
| 7 | Spencer Steer CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 3/10 30% | 75.8 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Gallen (5.53 recent |
| 8 | Jac Caglianone🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 5/10 50% | 74.6 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Arrighetti |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ ATH |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 9/10 90% | CWS @ LAD |
| 3 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | AZ @ CIN |
Why:
- 3 separate games (COL @ ATH / CWS @ LAD / AZ @ CIN) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 53% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.75x (EV $-0.25/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 11% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 43% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ ATH |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 9/10 90% | CWS @ LAD |
| 3 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | AZ @ CIN |
| 4 | Jac Caglianone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | HOU @ KC |
Why:
- Add Jac Caglianone at HOU @ KC
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 52% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.72x (EV $-0.28/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 27% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Xavier Edwards, Gunnar Henderson, Ty France, Ben Rice, Andrés Giménez, Ildemaro Vargas, Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 14 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMAlec Burleson Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMMichael Busch Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ CHC
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMAlec Burleson Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMMichael Busch Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ CHC
🟢 GOBCole Carrigg Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · ATH @ COL
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYY @ TOR
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
39.2% combined
EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMAlec Burleson Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ STL
🔴 DEMMichael Busch Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ CHC
🔴 DEMMichael Harris II Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ ATL
🟢 GOBCole Carrigg Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
5/5 L10 (100%) · ATH @ COL
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYY @ TOR
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d13 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-14T05:36.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 67% | 15 | $+6.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 65% | 66 | $+17.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 57% | 35 | $+5.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 205 | $+1.60 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 51% | 253 | $+0.70 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitching Outs | 50% | 6 | $+1.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 49% | 1369 | $-1.50 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 14% (7 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 25% (8 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (89 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 41% (116 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ CLE | Casey Mize vs Gavin Williams | 0.748 | 47% | 2.11x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIA @ PIT | Max Meyer vs Paul Skenes | 0.776 | 46% | 2.17x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ MIL | Cristopher Sánchez vs Kyle Harrison | 0.785 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ KC | Spencer Arrighetti vs Stephen Kolek | 0.805 | 45% | 2.24x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CHC @ SF | Ryan Rolison vs Logan Webb | 0.931 | 39% | 2.54x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ MIN | Michael McGreevy vs Taj Bradley | 0.976 | 38% | 2.65x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ CWS | Emmet Sheehan vs Erick Fedde | 1.487 | 77% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ BAL | Walker Buehler vs Trevor Rogers | 1.339 | 74% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ CIN | Zac Gallen vs Andrew Abbott | 1.237 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TB @ LAA | Casey Legumina vs Grayson Rodriguez | 1.205 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ ATH | Tomoyuki Sugano vs Jeffrey Springs | 1.201 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ WSH | Emerson Hancock vs Miles Mikolas | 1.162 | 69% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-14 06:37:25 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-14.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-14.json