Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-7.32. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 7 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 17 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SD @ AZ |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ PHI |
| Bryce Harper PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ PHI |
| Carson Benge NYM also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | AZ @ SD |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ LAD |
| TJ Rumfield COL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ COL |
| Tommy Troy AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ AZ |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ AZ |
| Jac Caglianone KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | PHI @ KC |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 TJ Rumfield · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Cedric Mullins · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Trent Grisham · Total Bases 70%🟢 Corbin Carroll · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Mauricio Dubón · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Rumfield COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ KC |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Cedric Mullins TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYY @ TB |
| Taylor Walls TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ TB |
| Kyle Karros COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Brice Turang MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ MIL |
| Luis Arraez SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ SF |
| TJ Rumfield COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Kyle Karros COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ COL |
| Trent Grisham NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Ketel Marte AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ AZ |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
TJ Rumfield · Hits+Runs+RBIsCarter Jensen · Hits+Runs+RBIsCedric Mullins · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrice Turang · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 603 🔴 Demons / 140 🟢 Goblins / 27 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 67 | 6/10 60% | 77.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Burrows (4.64 ERA) |
| 2 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 2/10 20% | 77.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Jax (5.37 ERA) |
| 3 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 77.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Mikolas (4.80 ERA) |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 4/10 40% | 75.0 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.90 ERA) |
| 5 | Bryce Harper PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 6/10 60% | 72.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cameron (4.90 ERA) |
| 6 | Francisco Alvarez🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 5/10 50% | 72.1 | Average bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable López (4. |
| 7 | Shohei Ohtani LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 3/10 30% | 70.5 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 8 | Hunter Goodman🔥 HOT COL | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 7/10 70% | 70.1 | Average bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | HOU @ WSH |
| 2 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TB @ NYY |
| 3 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | WSH @ HOU |
Why:
- 3 separate games (HOU @ WSH / TB @ NYY / WSH @ HOU) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 40% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.44x (EV $-0.56/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 5% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 30% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | HOU @ WSH |
| 2 | Ben Rice | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | TB @ NYY |
| 3 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | WSH @ HOU |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | KC @ PHI |
Why:
- Add Kyle Schwarber at KC @ PHI
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 40% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.34x (EV $-0.66/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 15% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Salvador Perez, Lane Thomas, Michael Massey, Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Cody Bellinger, Austin Wells, Dylan Crews
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 8 Demons + 10 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMTJ Rumfield Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAD @ COL
🔴 DEMCedric Mullins Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ TB
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMTJ Rumfield Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAD @ COL
🔴 DEMCedric Mullins Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ TB
🟢 GOBMauricio Dubón Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYM @ ATL
🟢 GOBCorbin Carroll Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SD @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMTJ Rumfield Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAD @ COL
🔴 DEMCedric Mullins Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · NYY @ TB
🔴 DEMTrent Grisham Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TB @ NYY
🟢 GOBMauricio Dubón Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYM @ ATL
🟢 GOBCorbin Carroll Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SD @ AZ
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d8 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-06T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 100% | 5 | $+5.00 |
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 176 | $+6.20 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 59% | 100 | $+38.05 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 57% | 14 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 51% | 177 | $+0.30 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 1132 | $-18.60 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 239 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1321 | $-28.10 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1321 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (239 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (1132 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Tie Breaks — 51% (177 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TB | Cam Schlittler vs Griffin Jax | 0.868 | 42% | 2.38x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ KC | Cristopher Sánchez vs Noah Cameron | 0.997 | 37% | 2.71x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ SF | Kevin Gausman vs Landen Roupp | 1.104 | 33% | 3.02x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ ATL | Freddy Peralta vs Reynaldo López | 1.131 | 32% | 3.1x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ STL | Shane Drohan vs Dustin May | 1.223 | 29% | 3.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ SD | Brandon Pfaadt vs Walker Buehler | 1.272 | 28% | 3.57x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ WSH | Mike Burrows vs Miles Mikolas | 1.631 | 80% | 1.24x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ LAD | Kyle Freeland vs Eric Lauer | 1.597 | 80% | 1.25x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SD | Brandon Pfaadt vs Walker Buehler | 1.272 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIL @ STL | Shane Drohan vs Dustin May | 1.223 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYM @ ATL | Freddy Peralta vs Reynaldo López | 1.131 | 68% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ SF | Kevin Gausman vs Landen Roupp | 1.104 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-06 06:15:11 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-06.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-06.json