edgeboard
MONEY SLATE · LIVE
2026-07-22 09:13 PT · refreshed just now
PITCHERS NOW
VEGAS NOW
LINEUPS
WEATHER NOW
KALSHI HR
PP EDGES NOW
ML EDGES NOW
WC EDGES
TENNIS NOW
TOTAL PICKS
5
locked today
ELITE
0
top tier
STRONG
0
tier 2
REAL $ PLAN
$0
0 fires
Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-15.36. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
SportP&LRecordLiveHealth
⚾ MLB$0.000W / 0L5 live(early)
⚽ WC$0.000W / 0L10 live(early)
🏈 NFLno slate today
PORTFOLIO$0.000W / 0L15 live
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks19 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

PlayerStat / variantLineL10 hit%Edge vs PPGame
Brandon Lowe PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppNYY @ PIT
Colt Emerson SEAHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppCIN @ SEA
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Hits
Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppNYY @ PIT
Gabriel Moreno AZHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppATH @ AZ
Jeremy Peña HOUHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppMIA @ HOU
Josh Naylor SEAHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppCIN @ SEA
Ryan Waldschmidt AZHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppATH @ AZ
Bryan Reynolds PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppNYY @ PIT
Chase DeLauter CLE
also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppMIN @ CLE
Corbin Carroll AZHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppATH @ AZ
Heliot Ramos SFHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppKC @ SF
Hunter Goodman COLHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppWSH @ COL
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Michael Busch · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Brett Baty · Hits 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →
🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

PlayerStat / variantLineEst hit%Edge vs PPGame
Garrett Mitchell MILHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppNYM @ MIL
Ryan Jeffers MINTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.567% (4/6)+26.7ppCLE @ MIN
Brett Baty NYMHits 🔴 DEMON0.570% (7/10)+30.0ppMIL @ NYM
Brett Baty NYMTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON0.570% (7/10)+30.0ppMIL @ NYM
Chase DeLauter CLETotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppMIN @ CLE
Seiya Suzuki CHCHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON2.570% (7/10)+30.0ppDET @ CHC
Lane Thomas KCTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppSF @ KC
Garrett Mitchell MILTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ MIL
Michael Busch CHCHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.580% (8/10)+40.0ppDET @ CHC
Isaac Collins KCHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppSF @ KC
Francisco Alvarez NYMHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppMIL @ NYM
Seiya Suzuki CHCTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppDET @ CHC
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Garrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsRyan Jeffers · Total BasesBrett Baty · HitsChase DeLauter · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →
🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 1168 🔴 Demons / 252 🟢 Goblins / 32 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#PlayerLineSidePA14L10ScoreWhy
1Bryce Eldridge🔥 HOT
SF
1.5MORE425/10 50%75.3Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 re
2Heliot Ramos
SF
1.5MORE423/10 30%73.7Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 recent ERA)
3Ben Rice
NYY
1.5MORE386/10 60%70.3Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Chandler
4Casey Schmitt
SF
1.5MORE444/10 40%68.9Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 recent ERA)
5Wilyer Abreu🔥 HOT
BOS
1.5MORE435/10 50%64.3Solid bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Bradish (ace,
6Rafael Devers
SF
1.5MORE443/10 30%63.5Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 recent ERA)
7Esmerlyn Valdez🔥 HOT
PIT
1.5MORE398/10 80%62.1Above-avg bat · on hot streak (18% HR rate) · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Fried (a
8Willy Adames🔥 HOT
SF
1.5MORE425/10 50%62.0Below-avg bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Lugo (5.53 recent ERA)
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from KC @ SF — bigger upside, bigger variance.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Bryce EldridgeTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%KC @ SF
2Heliot RamosTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%KC @ SF
3Casey SchmittTotal Bases1.5MORE4/10 40%KC @ SF
4Rafael DeversTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%KC @ SF
Why:
  • 4 batters from KC @ SF → correlated
  • If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
  • If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 38% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.30x (EV $-0.70/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
4/42%6.0x
3/413%1.5x
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Brandon Lowe, Cody Bellinger, Ryan O'Hearn, Romy Gonzalez, Michael Massey, Drew Gilbert, Jackson Chourio, Carson Benge
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 4 Demons + 4 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMBrett Baty Hits MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ NYM
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
39.7% combined
EV $+1.38–$+3.29/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMBrett Baty Hits MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ NYM
⚪ STAEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ PIT
🟢 GOBHeliot Ramos Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · KC @ SF
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
27.8% combined
EV $+1.50–$+4.00/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMGarrett Mitchell Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ MIL
🔴 DEMBrett Baty Hits MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ NYM
🔴 DEMIsaac Collins Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SF @ KC
⚪ STAEsmerlyn Valdez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ PIT
🟢 GOBHeliot Ramos Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · KC @ SF
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$-15.36 (33 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-22 09:13:29 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-22.json