Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+116.68. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$15.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | -$15.00 | 0W / 0L | 32 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks14 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Adrian Del Castillo AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ AZ |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ CWS |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CHC @ HOU |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ ATH |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Corbin Carroll AZ also locks: Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | COL @ AZ |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAA @ TEX |
| Jackson Chourio MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Jo Adell LAA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TEX @ LAA |
| Konnor Griffin PIT also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ PIT |
| Miguel Andujar SD also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATH @ SD |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~27% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$4.44/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Jake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Darell Hernaiz · Singles 70%🔴 Sam Antonacci · Total Bases 60%🟢 Adrian Del Castillo · Hitter Strikeouts 90%🟢 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons10 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Darell Hernaiz ATH | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ ATH |
| Sam Antonacci CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SF @ CWS |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ PIT |
| Jake Bauers MIL | RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAA @ TEX |
| Miguel Andujar SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATH @ SD |
| Rafael Devers SF | Singles 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CWS @ SF |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ TOR |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Jake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIsDarell Hernaiz · SinglesSam Antonacci · Total BasesBrandon Lowe · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 340 🔴 Demons / 66 🟢 Goblins / 14 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 2/10 20% | 80.5 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Taillon (5.12 ERA) |
| 2 | Nick Kurtz ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 3/10 30% | 69.5 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 4/10 40% | 69.0 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 4 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 5/10 50% | 68.9 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 5 | Corbin Carroll AZ | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 6/10 60% | 67.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 6 | Casey Schmitt SF | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 66.9 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 7 | Christian Walker HOU | 0.5 | MORE | 51 | 5/10 50% | 66.8 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Taillon (5.12 ERA) |
| 8 | Michael Busch CHC | 0.5 | MORE | 51 | 5/10 50% | 66.0 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Arrighetti (4.92 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CHC @ HOU |
| 2 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | SD @ ATH |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SF @ CWS |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CHC @ HOU / SD @ ATH / SF @ CWS) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 30% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.26x (EV $-0.74/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 2% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 19% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | CHC @ HOU |
| 2 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | SD @ ATH |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SF @ CWS |
| 4 | Corbin Carroll | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | COL @ AZ |
Why:
- Add Corbin Carroll at COL @ AZ
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 38% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.27x (EV $-0.73/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 1% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 12% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, Adrian Del Castillo, Ildemaro Vargas, Shea Langeliers, Carlos Cortes, Ramón Laureano, Tyler Soderstrom
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 5 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMJake Bauers Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAD @ MIL
🔴 DEMDarell Hernaiz Singles MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ ATH
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
45.4% combined
EV $+1.72–$+3.90/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMJake Bauers Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAD @ MIL
🔴 DEMDarell Hernaiz Singles MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ ATH
🟢 GOBJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CHC @ HOU
🟢 GOBAdrian Del Castillo Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · COL @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-22T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢OTHER-btts_no | 62% | 8 | $+4.49 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 12 | $+0.00 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 15% | 26 | $-62.93 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 15% (26 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 50% (12 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 50% (10 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Ks — 58% (19 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ SF | Davis Martin vs Trevor McDonald | 0.657 | 52% | 1.93x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ PHI | Gavin Williams vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.778 | 46% | 2.18x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ BOS | Connor Prielipp vs Payton Tolle | 0.864 | 42% | 2.37x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| WSH @ ATL | Richard Lovelady vs Bryce Elder | 0.891 | 41% | 2.44x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ MIL | Justin Wrobleski vs Logan Henderson | 0.934 | 39% | 2.54x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ NYY | Nick Martinez vs Gerrit Cole | 1.006 | 37% | 2.73x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ BAL | Jack Flaherty vs Keegan Akin | 1.359 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ CIN | Kyle Leahy vs Chris Paddack | 1.307 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ SD | Jeffrey Springs vs Walker Buehler | 1.266 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ CHC | Spencer Arrighetti vs Jameson Taillon | 1.113 | 67% | 1.49x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ TOR | Bubba Chandler vs Kevin Gausman | 1.09 | 66% | 1.51x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ KC | Logan Gilbert vs Noah Cameron | 1.079 | 66% | 1.51x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (3 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
0 WON · 0 LOST · 3 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Aaron Judge Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | -7.7pp | 🟡 LIVE |
| MLB | Kyle Schwarber Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | -2.1pp | 🟡 LIVE |
| MLB | Bryce Harper Will hit a home run | Home run (Kalshi) | +0.9pp | 🟡 LIVE |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-22 18:55:09 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-22.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-22.json