| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 8 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 18 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks21 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Jacob Wilson ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ ATH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ NYY |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ COL |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ COL |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Austin Hedges CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ BOS |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Javier Sanoja MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIA |
| Michael Busch CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Nolan Arenado AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ NYM |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ COL |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1179 🔴 Demons / 256 🟢 Goblins / 48 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Bauers MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 2/10 20% | 67.9 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.00 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Brice Turang MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 5/10 50% | 64.4 | Solid bat · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.00 recent ERA) |
| 3 | William Contreras MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 30 | 3/10 30% | 62.0 | Average bat · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.00 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Hunter Goodman COL | 1.5 | MORE | 34 | 4/10 40% | 61.3 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · tough matchup — Drohan (ace, 3.31 E |
| 5 | Joey Ortiz🔥 HOT MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 4/10 40% | 58.9 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.00 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Kyle Karros COL | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 3/10 30% | 52.3 | Solid bat · hitter-friendly park · tough matchup — Drohan (ace, 3.31 ERA) |
| 7 | Mickey Moniak COL | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 4/10 40% | 50.2 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · tough matchup — Drohan (ace, 3.31 |
| 8 | Willi Castro🔥 HOT COL | 1.5 | MORE | 30 | 5/10 50% | 49.3 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitter-friendly park · tough matchup — Drohan |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Bauers | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | COL @ MIL |
| 2 | Brice Turang | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | COL @ MIL |
| 3 | William Contreras | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | COL @ MIL |
| 4 | Joey Ortiz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | COL @ MIL |
- 4 batters from COL @ MIL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 1% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 11% | 1.5x |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-24T05:34.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 67% | 156 | $+5.40 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 58% | 135 | $+2.10 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 85 | $-6.31 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 938 | $-14.80 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 217 | $-51.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1138 | $-27.00 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1138 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (217 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (938 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (85 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 3 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaeavs LAD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 30.2 | +3.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 108 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Trey Yesavagevs BOS | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.3 | +2.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2310 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ DET | Beck Way vs Tarik Skubal | 0.786 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ PHI | Cam Schlittler vs Jesús Luzardo | 0.842 | 43% | 2.32x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ TB | Joey Cantillo vs Shane McClanahan | 0.87 | 42% | 2.39x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | Bryce Miller vs MacKenzie Gore | 0.94 | 39% | 2.56x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BOS | Trey Yesavage vs Patrick Sandoval | 1.117 | 33% | 3.05x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ CWS | Spencer Arrighetti vs Davis Martin | 1.168 | 31% | 3.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH @ MIN | Jacob Lopez vs Zebby Matthews | 1.541 | 79% | 1.27x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ NYM | Roki Sasaki vs Sean Manaea | 1.361 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ STL | Rhett Lowder vs Dustin May | 1.355 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ MIA | Germán Márquez vs Ryan Gusto | 1.345 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ PIT | Matthew Boyd vs Jared Jones | 1.325 | 73% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ MIL | Tomoyuki Sugano vs Shane Drohan | 1.227 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-24.json