Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-41.23. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 8 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 30 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pages LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ LAD |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (8/8) | +40pp | WSH @ PHI |
| Jake Mangum PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ WSH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ CHC |
| Ty France SD also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | AZ @ SD |
| Cedric Mullins TB | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ TB |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ TEX |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ CHC |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Kyle Karros COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TB @ COL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~42% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.40/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Jeremy Peña · Total Bases 80%🔴 Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 75%🔴 Ty France · Total Bases 70%🟢 Andy Pages · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Jake Mangum · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 75% (6/8) | +35.0pp | WSH @ PHI |
| Ty France SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ SD |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | WSH @ PHI |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Willy Adames SF | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TEX @ SF |
| Ty France SD | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | AZ @ SD |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ CHC |
| George Springer TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | HOU @ TOR |
| Luis García Jr. NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ NYY |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 3.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIsTy France · Total BasesYordan Alvarez · Hits+Runs+RBIsWilly Adames · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 638 🔴 Demons / 142 🟢 Goblins / 30 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 3/10 30% | 73.4 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.87 ERA) |
| 2 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 67 | 2/10 20% | 73.3 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Nola |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 5/10 50% | 70.9 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 5/10 50% | 70.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
| 5 | Hunter Goodman🔥 HOT COL | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 2/10 20% | 70.2 | Average bat · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park |
| 6 | Luis García Jr. NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 6/10 60% | 69.7 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm McGreevy (5.66 recent ERA) |
| 7 | CJ Abrams🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 4/10 40% | 66.7 | Solid bat · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Nola |
| 8 | Bryan Reynolds PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 4/10 40% | 66.1 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.87 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | MIL @ PIT |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | PHI @ WSH |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ LAD |
Why:
- 3 separate games (MIL @ PIT / PHI @ WSH / CHC @ LAD) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 33% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.31x (EV $-0.69/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 3% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 22% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | MIL @ PIT |
| 2 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | PHI @ WSH |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ LAD |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TOR @ HOU |
Why:
- Add Yordan Alvarez at TOR @ HOU
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 38% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.28x (EV $-0.72/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 12% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Kyle Schwarber, Keibert Ruiz, Ben Rice, Jordan Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Alec Burleson, Ryan McMahon, Lars Nootbaar
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 13 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
60.0% combined
EV $+0.80–$+2.00/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ HOU
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
6/8 L10 (75%) · WSH @ PHI
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
60.0% combined
EV $+2.60–$+5.48/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ HOU
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
6/8 L10 (75%) · WSH @ PHI
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ CHC
🟢 GOBTy France Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · AZ @ SD
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
42.0% combined
EV $+2.78–$+6.56/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Total Bases MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ HOU
🔴 DEMBryan De La Cruz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
6/8 L10 (75%) · WSH @ PHI
🔴 DEMTy France Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · AZ @ SD
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ CHC
🟢 GOBAndy Pages Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ LAD
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-03T05:39.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 80% | 105 | $+6.30 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 106 | $+3.60 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 690 | $-2.40 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 48% | 48 | $-10.81 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 205 | $-47.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 34% | 701 | $-22.70 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (701 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (205 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 48% (48 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (690 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-0230 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 3/3 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ NYY | Michael McGreevy vs Cam Schlittler | 0.825 | 44% | 2.28x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ AZ | Michael King vs Brandon Pfaadt | 1.002 | 37% | 2.72x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ TEX | Logan Webb vs TBD | 1.067 | 34% | 2.91x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ CHC | TBD vs Matthew Boyd | 1.172 | 31% | 3.23x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ HOU | Shane Bieber vs Cristian Javier | 1.427 | 24% | 4.17x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ COL | Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen | 1.43 | 24% | 4.18x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ MIL | Bubba Chandler vs Brandon Sproat | 1.584 | 80% | 1.26x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ PHI | TBD vs Aaron Nola | 1.451 | 77% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TB @ COL | Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen | 1.43 | 76% | 1.31x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ HOU | Shane Bieber vs Cristian Javier | 1.427 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ CHC | TBD vs Matthew Boyd | 1.172 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ TEX | Logan Webb vs TBD | 1.067 | 66% | 1.52x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-03 06:26:24 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-03.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-03.json