Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+22.83. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 5 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 15 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks13 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson STL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | KC @ STL |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SF @ ATL |
| Zack Gelof ATH also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Bryce Eldridge SF also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SF |
| Christian Yelich MIL also locks: Hitter Strikeouts | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ MIL |
| Jacob Wilson ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Luis Arraez SF | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SF |
| Nathan Lukes TOR also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ TOR |
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Rafael Devers SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ SF |
| Denzer Guzman LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 88% (7/8) | +28pp | ATH @ LAA |
| Braden Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | NYY @ CWS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Paul Goldschmidt · Total Bases 80%🔴 Zack Gelof · Total Bases 80%🔴 Bo Bichette · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Alec Burleson · Hits 100%🟢 Drake Baldwin · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TEX @ MIN |
| Taylor Ward BAL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ BAL |
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Zack Gelof ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAA @ ATH |
| Kody Clemens MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TEX @ MIN |
| Pete Alonso BAL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ BAL |
| Bryce Eldridge SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SF |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SEA @ BAL |
| Cole Young SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ SEA |
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ NYY |
| Elias Díaz TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ TEX |
| Jung Hoo Lee SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SF |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Josh Bell · Hits+Runs+RBIsTaylor Ward · Hits+Runs+RBIsPaul Goldschmidt · Total BasesZack Gelof · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 582 🔴 Demons / 148 🟢 Goblins / 23 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac Caglianone KC | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 4/10 40% | 74.2 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Liberatore (5.43 ERA) |
| 2 | Byron Buxton🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 7/10 70% | 73.8 | Solid bat · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Leiter (4. |
| 3 | Nick Kurtz🔥 HOT ATH | 0.5 | MORE | 62 | 10/10 100% | 73.7 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 4 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 5/10 50% | 72.9 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Nola |
| 5 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 3/10 30% | 71.9 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Manaea |
| 6 | Dominic Canzone SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 4/10 40% | 71.3 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Baz (4.72 ERA) |
| 7 | Alec Burleson🔥 HOT STL | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 7/10 70% | 71.0 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Cameron |
| 8 | Mike Trout LAA | 0.5 | MORE | 56 | 8/10 80% | 70.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 10/10 100% | LAA @ ATH |
| 2 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | PHI @ NYM |
| 3 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | NYM @ PHI |
Why:
- 3 separate games (LAA @ ATH / PHI @ NYM / NYM @ PHI) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 60% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 0.95x (EV $-0.05/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 15% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 50% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 10/10 100% | LAA @ ATH |
| 2 | Juan Soto | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | PHI @ NYM |
| 3 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | NYM @ PHI |
| 4 | Alec Burleson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 7/10 70% | KC @ STL |
Why:
- Add Alec Burleson at KC @ STL
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 62% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.22x (EV +$0.22/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 10% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 39% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Christian Yelich, Brandon Nimmo, Ezequiel Duran, Gunnar Henderson, Julio Rodríguez, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Bryson Stott
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 10 Demons + 12 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ NYY
🔴 DEMZack Gelof Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAA @ ATH
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ NYY
🔴 DEMZack Gelof Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAA @ ATH
🟢 GOBAlec Burleson Hits MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · KC @ STL
🟢 GOBDrake Baldwin Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SF @ ATL
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
51.2% combined
EV $+3.61–$+8.22/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMPaul Goldschmidt Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CWS @ NYY
🔴 DEMZack Gelof Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAA @ ATH
🔴 DEMBo Bichette Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · PHI @ NYM
🟢 GOBAlec Burleson Hits MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · KC @ STL
🟢 GOBDrake Baldwin Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SF @ ATL
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d9 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-18T05:40.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 64% | 14 | $+5.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 63% | 60 | $+14.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Sets | 53% | 277 | $+1.70 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 237 | $+1.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 49% | 89 | $-19.39 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 49% | 1517 | $-4.30 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 49% | 1404 | $-2.40 |
| 🔴MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 45% | 20 | $-1.50 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 35% (110 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Fantasy — 45% (20 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 49% (1404 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 49% (1517 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-06-1730 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 3/3 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ MIL | Parker Messick vs Shane Drohan | 0.852 | 43% | 2.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BOS | Trey Yesavage vs Sonny Gray | 0.919 | 40% | 2.51x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ ATL | Landen Roupp vs Martín Pérez | 0.989 | 37% | 2.69x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ ATH | TBD vs Gage Jump | 1.042 | 35% | 2.84x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ TEX | Joe Ryan vs Jack Leiter | 1.098 | 33% | 3.0x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ KC | Matthew Liberatore vs Noah Cameron | 1.168 | 31% | 3.22x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ NYY | Sean Burke vs Ryan Weathers | 1.368 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYM @ PHI | Sean Manaea vs Aaron Nola | 1.277 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BAL @ SEA | Shane Baz vs Bryan Woo | 1.224 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ KC | Matthew Liberatore vs Noah Cameron | 1.168 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ TEX | Joe Ryan vs Jack Leiter | 1.098 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ ATH | TBD vs Gage Jump | 1.042 | 65% | 1.54x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-18 06:11:24 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-18.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-18.json