Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-64.72. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 32 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pages LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ LAD |
| Jake Mangum PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ PIT |
| James McCann AZ also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (8/8) | +40pp | SD @ AZ |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ WSH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAD @ CHC |
| Ty France SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | AZ @ SD |
| Andruw Monasterio BOS also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | DET @ SEA |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ MIL |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | KC @ MIN |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Hao-Yu Lee · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Seiya Suzuki · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Andy Pages · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Jake Mangum · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CHC |
| Michael Busch CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CHC |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TOR @ HOU |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Ty France SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | AZ @ SD |
| James McCann AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | SD @ AZ |
| James McCann AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | SD @ AZ |
| James McCann AZ | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | SD @ AZ |
| Hao-Yu Lee DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SEA @ DET |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ PIT |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CHC |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ CHC |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Seiya Suzuki · Hits+Runs+RBIsJeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIsCeddanne Rafaela · Total BasesTy France · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1157 🔴 Demons / 263 🟢 Goblins / 40 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuña Jr.🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 30 | 2/7 29% | 76.0 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Gusto (4. |
| 2 | Drake Baldwin ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 63 | 4/10 40% | 75.7 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Gusto (4.64 ERA) |
| 3 | Griffin Conine MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 3/10 30% | 74.7 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Holmes (4.80 ERA) |
| 4 | Bryce Harper PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 6/10 60% | 74.5 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Littell (6.12 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 6/10 60% | 74.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Gusto (4.64 ERA) |
| 6 | Pete Alonso BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 5/10 50% | 72.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Rodriguez (7.92 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 59 | 4/10 40% | 71.7 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Sandoval |
| 8 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 4/10 40% | 71.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | MIA @ ATL |
| 2 | Bryce Harper | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ PHI |
| 3 | Pete Alonso | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | LAA @ BAL |
Why:
- 3 separate games (MIA @ ATL / WSH @ PHI / LAA @ BAL) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.74x (EV $-0.26/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | MIA @ ATL |
| 2 | Bryce Harper | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | WSH @ PHI |
| 3 | Pete Alonso | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | LAA @ BAL |
| 4 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | BOS @ CWS |
Why:
- Add Miguel Vargas at BOS @ CWS
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.62x (EV $-0.38/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 22% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from MIA @ ATL — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/7 29% | MIA @ ATL |
| 2 | Drake Baldwin | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | MIA @ ATL |
| 3 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | MIA @ ATL |
Why:
- 3 batters from MIA @ ATL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.53x (EV $-0.47/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 7% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Jackson Holliday, Nolan Schanuel, Kyle Schwarber, Keibert Ruiz, Tyler Soderstrom, Noelvi Marte
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 7 Demons + 12 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ HOU
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SEA @ DET
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ HOU
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SEA @ DET
🟢 GOBSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · LAD @ CHC
🟢 GOBJames McCann Hits MORE 0.5
8/8 L10 (100%) · SD @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
44.8% combined
EV $+3.03–$+7.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · TOR @ HOU
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SEA @ DET
🔴 DEMSeiya Suzuki Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAD @ CHC
🟢 GOBJames McCann Hits MORE 0.5
8/8 L10 (100%) · SD @ AZ
🟢 GOBTy France Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · AZ @ SD
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-04T05:33.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 80% | 106 | $+6.40 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 106 | $+3.60 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 50% | 52 | $-6.10 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 692 | $-2.40 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 213 | $-51.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 34% | 703 | $-22.70 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (703 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (213 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (692 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 50% (52 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ KC | Joe Ryan vs Randy Dobnak | 0.813 | 44% | 2.26x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ BOS | Davis Martin vs Patrick Sandoval | 0.926 | 40% | 2.52x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| DET @ SEA | TBD vs Emerson Hancock | 0.974 | 38% | 2.65x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ AZ | Randy Vásquez vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.015 | 36% | 2.76x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ NYY | Hunter Dobbins vs Ryan Weathers | 1.03 | 36% | 2.8x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ TEX | Blade Tidwell vs MacKenzie Gore | 1.039 | 35% | 2.83x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ ATL | Ryan Gusto vs Grant Holmes | 1.375 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAA @ BAL | Grayson Rodriguez vs TBD | 1.288 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ PHI | Zack Littell vs Jesús Luzardo | 1.192 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TB @ COL | Freddy Peralta vs Gabriel Hughes | 1.165 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYM @ CLE | Sean Manaea vs Joey Cantillo | 1.097 | 67% | 1.5x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ CHC | Tarik Skubal vs Javier Assad | 1.079 | 66% | 1.52x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-04 06:29:01 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-04.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-04.json