Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-16.36. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$1.00 | 2W / 1L | 1 live | · |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | -$1.00 | 2W / 1L | 11 live | 67% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks11 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Rhys Hoskins CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TB @ CLE |
| Ty France SD also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIA @ SD |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Hits | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | ATH @ MIN |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ CLE |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ CLE |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIA @ SD |
| Jordan Walker STL also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CIN @ STL |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Salvador Perez KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | DET @ KC |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ CLE |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~30% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.05/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Steven Kwan · Total Bases 80%🔴 Vinnie Pasquantino · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Ty France · Total Bases 90%🟢 Ryan Jeffers · Total Bases 86%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons10 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 57% (4/7) | +17.1pp | ATH @ MIN |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Steven Kwan CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Ty France SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ SD |
| Luis Rengifo SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ SD |
| Ty France SD | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ SD |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Vinnie Pasquantino · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIsMichael Harris II · Total BasesRyan Jeffers · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 6 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 161 🔴 Demons / 33 🟢 Goblins / 9 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Caminero TB | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 5/10 50% | 72.3 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Bieber (8.54 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Yandy Díaz TB | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 4/10 40% | 68.3 | Above-avg bat · facing BP-arm Bieber (8.54 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 3/10 30% | 66.4 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Legumina (4.97 ERA) |
| 4 | Jonathan Aranda TB | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 4/10 40% | 64.9 | Solid bat · facing BP-arm Bieber (8.54 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson TB | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 5/10 50% | 51.2 | Below-avg bat · facing BP-arm Bieber (8.54 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Ernie Clement TOR | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 5/10 50% | 47.6 | Below-avg bat · facing vulnerable Legumina (4.97 ERA) |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from TOR @ TB — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Caminero | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TOR @ TB |
| 2 | Yandy Díaz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TOR @ TB |
| 3 | Jonathan Aranda | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TOR @ TB |
| 4 | Chandler Simpson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | TOR @ TB |
Why:
- 4 batters from TOR @ TB → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.54x (EV $-0.46/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 20% | 1.5x |
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-24T05:34.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 67% | 156 | $+5.40 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 58% | 135 | $+2.10 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 85 | $-6.31 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 938 | $-14.80 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 217 | $-51.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1138 | $-27.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1138 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (217 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (938 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (85 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ DET | Randy Dobnak vs Troy Melton | 0.706 | 49% | 2.03x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ STL | Brandon Pfaadt vs Michael McGreevy | 1.023 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ CLE | Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams | 1.119 | 33% | 3.06x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ ATL | Kyle Hart vs Chris Sale | 1.168 | 31% | 3.21x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ TOR | Casey Legumina vs Shane Bieber | 1.257 | 28% | 3.51x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ TOR | Casey Legumina vs Shane Bieber | 1.257 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ ATL | Kyle Hart vs Chris Sale | 1.168 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CLE | Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams | 1.119 | 67% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ STL | Brandon Pfaadt vs Michael McGreevy | 1.023 | 64% | 1.56x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ DET | Randy Dobnak vs Troy Melton | 0.706 | 51% | 1.98x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (2 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
2 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Jake Cronenworth ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +80.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Gavin Sheets ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.2pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-23 22:35:30 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-23.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-23.json