Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-8.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 6 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 28 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks20 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL also locks: Hitter Strikeouts | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (5/5) | +40pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ COL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIA |
| Masataka Yoshida BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ BOS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Tyler Locklear · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Brewer Hicklen · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Francisco Alvarez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Jake McCarthy · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Locklear AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Brewer Hicklen ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Tommy White ATH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | MIN @ ATH |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ MIA |
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ BOS |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | LAD @ NYM |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Nolan Arenado AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ COL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Tyler Locklear · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrewer Hicklen · Hits+Runs+RBIsTommy White · Total BasesIsaac Collins · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1176 🔴 Demons / 256 🟢 Goblins / 40 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 3/10 30% | 80.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Bratt (5.31 ERA) |
| 2 | Ryan Jeffers MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 4/8 50% | 76.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Barnett (5.18 ERA) |
| 3 | Drake Baldwin🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 6/10 60% | 75.4 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Young |
| 4 | CJ Abrams🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 6/10 60% | 72.6 | Solid bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Bratt (5.31 E |
| 5 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 5/10 50% | 70.6 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Brown |
| 6 | Heliot Ramos SF | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 3/10 30% | 70.0 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Johnson (4.62 ERA) |
| 7 | Riley Greene DET | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 69.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Wacha |
| 8 | Bryce Harper PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 4/10 40% | 69.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Weathers (4.56 ERA) |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Nick Loftin, Ildemaro Vargas, Zach Neto, Jorge Soler, Mike Trout, Nolan Schanuel
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMTyler Locklear Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · WSH @ AZ
🔴 DEMBrewer Hicklen Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · BAL @ ATL
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMTyler Locklear Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · WSH @ AZ
🔴 DEMBrewer Hicklen Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · BAL @ ATL
🟢 GOBBrandon Lowe Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CWS @ HOU
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
51.2% combined
EV $+3.61–$+8.22/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMTyler Locklear Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · WSH @ AZ
🔴 DEMBrewer Hicklen Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · BAL @ ATL
🔴 DEMFrancisco Alvarez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAD @ NYM
🟢 GOBBrandon Lowe Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CWS @ HOU
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-25T05:32.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 148 | $+5.20 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 58% | 133 | $+2.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 48% | 77 | $-9.01 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 881 | $-13.30 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 209 | $-49.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1099 | $-27.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1099 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (209 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (881 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 48% (77 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2430 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ BOS | Dylan Cease vs Sonny Gray | 0.678 | 51% | 1.97x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ DET | Michael Wacha vs Casey Mize | 0.781 | 46% | 2.18x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAD @ NYM | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLean | 0.866 | 42% | 2.38x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ TB | Tanner Bibee vs Nick Martinez | 0.915 | 40% | 2.5x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | Bryan Woo vs Nathan Eovaldi | 1.051 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ MIA | JP Sears vs Eury Pérez | 1.071 | 34% | 2.92x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ MIL | Ryan Feltner vs Robert Gasser | 1.532 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ WSH | Mitch Bratt vs Foster Griffin | 1.283 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ STL | Hunter Greene vs Andre Pallante | 1.27 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ MIN | Mason Barnett vs TBD | 1.268 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ PHI | Ryan Weathers vs TBD | 1.23 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ PIT | Shota Imanaga vs Paul Skenes | 1.189 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-25 06:24:25 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-25.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-25.json