Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-39.42. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 32 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ MIL |
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ TOR |
| Spencer Horwitz PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| William Contreras MIL | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | STL @ MIL |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Jake Bauers MIL also locks: Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | STL @ MIL |
| Ramón Laureano SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ SD |
| Trea Turner PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ PHI |
| Nick Sogard BOS also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 88% (7/8) | +28pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Adolis García PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ PHI |
| Bobby Witt Jr. KC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYY @ KC |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~58% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$10.52/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Willson Contreras · Total Bases 90%🔴 Taylor Trammell · Total Bases 80%🔴 Corbin Carroll · Total Bases 80%🟢 Brice Turang · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Kazuma Okamoto · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Trammell HOU | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | ATL @ BOS |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SF @ AZ |
| James Wood WSH | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ WSH |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ MIL |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ CLE |
| Casey Schmitt SF | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ SF |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Juan Soto NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CIN @ NYM |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | KC @ NYY |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | STL @ MIL |
| Spencer Steer CIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ CIN |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Taylor Trammell · Total BasesWillson Contreras · Total BasesCorbin Carroll · Total BasesJames Wood · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 956 🔴 Demons / 239 🟢 Goblins / 30 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Manzardo🔥 HOT CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 4/10 40% | 75.2 | Average bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Poulin (5.80 re |
| 2 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 65 | 6/10 60% | 73.5 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Williams |
| 3 | Ketel Marte🔥 HOT AZ | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 10/10 100% | 70.4 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average McDonald |
| 4 | Corbin Carroll AZ | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 8/10 80% | 70.0 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average McDonald |
| 5 | José Ramírez CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 4/10 40% | 68.7 | Above-avg bat · facing BP-arm Poulin (5.80 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Nick Kurtz ATH | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 5/10 50% | 67.6 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Gilbert (ace, 3.94 ERA) |
| 7 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 3/10 30% | 66.8 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Patrick (ace, 3.65 ERA) |
| 8 | CJ Abrams WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 4/10 40% | 65.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Williams |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CLE @ WSH |
| 2 | Ketel Marte | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 10/10 100% | SF @ AZ |
| 3 | José Ramírez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | WSH @ CLE |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CLE @ WSH / SF @ AZ / WSH @ CLE) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 67% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.24x (EV +$0.24/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 24% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 52% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CLE @ WSH |
| 2 | Ketel Marte | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 10/10 100% | SF @ AZ |
| 3 | José Ramírez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | WSH @ CLE |
| 4 | Nick Kurtz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SEA @ ATH |
Why:
- Add Nick Kurtz at SEA @ ATH
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 62% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.29x (EV +$0.29/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 12% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 38% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Kazuma Okamoto, Andrés Giménez, Otto Lopez, Daniel Schneemann, Sal Frelick, Shea Langeliers, Jose Fernandez, Ildemaro Vargas
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 4 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMCorbin Carroll Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMTravis Bazzana Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · WSH @ CLE
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMCorbin Carroll Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMTravis Bazzana Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · WSH @ CLE
🟢 GOBBrice Turang Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ MIL
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIA @ TOR
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
39.2% combined
EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMCorbin Carroll Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMTravis Bazzana Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · WSH @ CLE
🔴 DEMJesús Sánchez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIA @ TOR
🟢 GOBBrice Turang Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ MIL
🟢 GOBKazuma Okamoto Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · MIA @ TOR
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d10 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-27T05:42.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 64% | 28 | $+7.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 24% (54 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-btts_no — 50% (12 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays8 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 3 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehlervs PHI | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 21.5 | 27.86 | +6.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 101 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Noah Cameronvs NYY | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 28.082 | +5.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Bubba Chandlervs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 29.387 | +4.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Eury Pérezvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 31.68 | +4.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 102 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Connelly Earlyvs ATL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 29.535 | +3.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Jeffrey Springsvs SEA | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.6 | +2.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Dustin Mayvs MIL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Cristopher Sánchezvs SD | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 3.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 108 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-05-2630 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA @ DET | José Soriano vs Casey Mize | 0.664 | 52% | 1.94x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ BOS | Bryce Elder vs Connelly Early | 0.851 | 43% | 2.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CIN @ NYM | Andrew Abbott vs Huascar Brazobán | 0.862 | 42% | 2.37x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ CWS | Connor Prielipp vs Davis Martin | 0.954 | 38% | 2.6x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| WSH @ CLE | PJ Poulin vs Gavin Williams | 0.98 | 38% | 2.66x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ SD | Cristopher Sánchez vs Walker Buehler | 0.994 | 37% | 2.7x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC @ PIT | Jameson Taillon vs Bubba Chandler | 1.497 | 78% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ KC | Gerrit Cole vs Noah Cameron | 1.22 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ TEX | Mike Burrows vs Jacob deGrom | 1.217 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ MIL | Dustin May vs Chad Patrick | 1.188 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ ATH | Logan Gilbert vs Jeffrey Springs | 1.073 | 66% | 1.52x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SF | Michael Soroka vs Trevor McDonald | 1.061 | 65% | 1.53x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-27 09:12:27 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-27.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-27.json