Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-7.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | — | no slate today | ||
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Jake McCarthy COL also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIL @ COL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Yordan Alvarez HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIA |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ ATL |
| Munetaka Murakami CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | HOU @ CWS |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Tyler Locklear · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Austin Hedges · Total Bases 70%🔴 Jake McCarthy · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Isaac Paredes · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Locklear AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (4/5) | +40.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Austin Hedges CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ COL |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Heriberto Hernández MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIA |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Chandler Simpson TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ TB |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TOR @ BOS |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Willi Castro COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ COL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Tyler Locklear · Hits+Runs+RBIsAustin Hedges · Total BasesJake McCarthy · Hits+Runs+RBIsHeriberto Hernández · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1081 🔴 Demons / 240 🟢 Goblins / 42 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 4/10 40% | 79.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Leahy (5.26 ERA |
| 2 | Yordan Alvarez HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 7/10 70% | 76.1 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Fedde (4.57 ERA) |
| 3 | Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 6/10 60% | 75.8 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Taillon (5.43 ERA) |
| 4 | Drake Baldwin🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 6/10 60% | 74.8 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (11% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Baz |
| 5 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 37 | 2/10 20% | 73.5 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Leahy (5.26 ERA |
| 6 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 32 | 5/10 50% | 73.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Gausman |
| 7 | Riley Greene DET | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 5/10 50% | 73.2 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Avila (4.76 ERA) |
| 8 | Gabriel Moreno AZ | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 5/10 50% | 69.7 | Great bat 🔥 · facing vulnerable Mikolas (5.08 ERA) |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Junior Caminero, Pete Alonso, Mauricio Dubón, Jim Jarvis, Daulton Varsho, Jarren Duran, Bryan Reynolds, Ryan O'Hearn
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 15 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMTyler Locklear Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · WSH @ AZ
🔴 DEMAustin Hedges Total Bases MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TB @ CLE
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMTyler Locklear Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · WSH @ AZ
🔴 DEMAustin Hedges Total Bases MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TB @ CLE
🟢 GOBBrandon Lowe Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CWS @ HOU
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
39.2% combined
EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMTyler Locklear Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
4/5 L10 (80%) · WSH @ AZ
🔴 DEMAustin Hedges Total Bases MORE 0.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TB @ CLE
🔴 DEMJake McCarthy Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ COL
🟢 GOBBrandon Lowe Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CWS @ HOU
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-26T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 69% | 131 | $+4.90 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 59% | 111 | $+2.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 49% | 71 | $-5.56 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 44% | 726 | $-8.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 974 | $-22.60 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 37% | 198 | $-50.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 37% (198 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (974 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 44% (726 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 49% (71 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays14 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 14 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messickvs TB | Pitches Thrown | MORE 88.5 | 102.1 | +13.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Logan Gilbertvs TEX | Pitches Thrown | MORE 93.5 | 105.0 | +11.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Reynaldo Lópezvs BAL | Pitches Thrown | LESS 83.5 | 75.0 | -8.5pp | ⛔ LOW PITCH CAP | Short-leash — max 85 pitches across last 3 starts |
| Jacob deGromvs SEA | Pitches Thrown | MORE 92.5 | 100.7 | +8.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Luinder Avilavs DET | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 21.5 | 28.469 | +7.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Framber Valdezvs KC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS 31.5 | 25.124 | -6.4pp | ⛔ LOW PITCH CAP | Short-leash — max 87 pitches across last 3 starts |
| Miles Mikolasvs AZ | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 6.6 | +4.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Jameson Taillonvs PIT | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 6.5 | +4.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Freddy Peraltavs LAD | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 23.5 | 26.946 | +3.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 107 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Ranger Suarezvs TOR | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 27.727 | +3.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 102 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2530 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ TB | Parker Messick vs Drew Rasmussen | 0.783 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ SF | José Soriano vs Carson Whisenhunt | 0.864 | 42% | 2.37x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ PHI | Will Warren vs Cristopher Sánchez | 0.933 | 39% | 2.54x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | Logan Gilbert vs Jacob deGrom | 0.943 | 39% | 2.57x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CIN @ STL | Andrew Abbott vs Kyle Leahy | 0.993 | 37% | 2.7x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BOS | Kevin Gausman vs Ranger Suarez | 1.02 | 36% | 2.77x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ NYM | Emmet Sheehan vs Freddy Peralta | 1.53 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ PIT | Jameson Taillon vs Braxton Ashcraft | 1.518 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ MIN | Jeffrey Springs vs Connor Prielipp | 1.518 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ MIA | Walker Buehler vs Janson Junk | 1.421 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| HOU @ CWS | Ronel Blanco vs Erick Fedde | 1.374 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ DET | Luinder Avila vs Framber Valdez | 1.234 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-26 09:15:13 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-26.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-26.json