| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | +$2.00 | 2W / 0L | 0 live | · |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | +$2.00 | 2W / 0L | 22 live | 100% hit |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks22 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SD |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ LAD |
| Miguel Vargas CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Sam Antonacci CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Teoscar Hernández LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ LAD |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ NYY |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CWS @ CLE |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Dustin Harris SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ MIL |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ MIL |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Ortiz MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Spencer Jones NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| George Lombard Jr. NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| William Contreras MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Sam Antonacci CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ ATL |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| David Hamilton MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays1 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 2 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-06T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 81% | 26 | $+1.60 |
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 80% | 44 | $+2.60 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 57% | 7 | $+1.50 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 50% | 155 | $-0.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 45% | 22 | $-2.27 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 42% | 318 | $-5.00 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 370 | $-78.00 |
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (370 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 42% (318 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 45% (22 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 50% (155 picks)
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TB | Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta | 1.052 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ CLE | Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams | 1.227 | 29% | 3.41x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ CLE | Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams | 1.227 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ TB | Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta | 1.052 | 65% | 1.54x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
Today's Results — Settled + Live
2 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Jonny DeLuca ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +72.0pp | ✅ WON |
| MLB | Munetaka Murakami ⚪ Over 0.5 total bases | MLB prop · Total Bases (PrizePicks) | +1.2pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-05.json