Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-37.20. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 19 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 29 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks12 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Seigler BOS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Hits | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ CHC |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BAL @ CHC |
| Sam Antonacci CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ CWS |
| Tristan Gray MIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Romy Gonzalez BOS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CHC @ BAL |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | BOS @ CWS |
| Taylor Ward BAL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CHC @ BAL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~32% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.35/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Luke Keaschall · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Pete Crow-Armstrong · Total Bases 70%🔴 Anthony Seigler · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Chase DeLauter · Total Bases 90%🟢 Sam Antonacci · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons11 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BAL @ CHC |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BAL @ CHC |
| Anthony Seigler BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Luke Keaschall MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Josh Bell MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Alex Jackson MIN | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Alex Jackson MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CWS @ BOS |
| Kody Clemens MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Kody Clemens MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Pete Crow-Armstrong · Total BasesAnthony Seigler · Hits+Runs+RBIsLuke Keaschall · Hits+Runs+RBIsChase DeLauter · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 747 🔴 Demons / 172 🟢 Goblins / 15 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Alonso BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 4/10 40% | 71.5 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Peterson (5.14 ERA) |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 5/10 50% | 70.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sandoval (4.50 ERA) |
| 3 | Kody Clemens🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 7/10 70% | 69.1 | Solid bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Williams (4. |
| 4 | Josh Bell🔥 HOT MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 6/10 60% | 66.7 | Average bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Williams (4 |
| 5 | Samuel Basallo BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 3/10 30% | 65.6 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Peterson (5.14 ERA) |
| 6 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 7/10 70% | 65.2 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Rogers |
| 7 | Blaze Alexander BAL | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 3/10 30% | 64.5 | Solid bat · facing vulnerable Peterson (5.14 ERA) |
| 8 | Anthony Seigler BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 63.6 | Solid bat · facing vulnerable Kay (5.24 ERA) |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from CHC @ BAL — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Alonso | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CHC @ BAL |
| 2 | Samuel Basallo | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CHC @ BAL |
| 3 | Blaze Alexander | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CHC @ BAL |
Why:
- 3 batters from CHC @ BAL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 33% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.33x (EV $-0.67/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 4% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 22% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Kahlil Watson, Travis Bazzana, Wilyer Abreu, Braden Montgomery, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 6 Demons + 7 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIN
🔴 DEMPete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BAL @ CHC
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
45.4% combined
EV $+1.72–$+3.90/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIN
🔴 DEMPete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BAL @ CHC
🟢 GOBSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BOS @ CWS
🟢 GOBAnthony Seigler Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CWS @ BOS
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
31.8% combined
EV $+1.86–$+4.72/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ MIN
🔴 DEMPete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · BAL @ CHC
🔴 DEMAnthony Seigler Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CWS @ BOS
🟢 GOBSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BOS @ CWS
🟢 GOBChase DeLauter Total Bases MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIN @ CLE
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-09T05:37.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 69% | 185 | $+6.90 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 55% | 94 | $+23.30 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 52% | 185 | $+0.70 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1182 | $-17.60 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 42% | 255 | $-43.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 1374 | $-29.40 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (1374 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 42% (255 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1182 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Tie Breaks — 52% (185 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogersvs CHC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.9 | +3.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-0830 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TB | Paul Blackburn vs Drew Rasmussen | 0.761 | 47% | 2.14x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ STL | Logan Henderson vs Andre Pallante | 0.9 | 41% | 2.46x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ MIA | Bryce Miller vs Janson Junk | 0.976 | 38% | 2.65x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ NYM | Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea | 1.051 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ TEX | Reid Detmers vs Nathan Eovaldi | 1.092 | 34% | 2.98x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ CWS | Patrick Sandoval vs Anthony Kay | 1.206 | 30% | 3.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC @ BAL | David Peterson vs Trevor Rogers | 1.508 | 78% | 1.28x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATL @ PIT | Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller | 1.469 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| ATH @ DET | Jack Perkins vs Framber Valdez | 1.375 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ SD | Merrill Kelly vs Griffin Canning | 1.358 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ CIN | Jesús Luzardo vs Brady Singer | 1.275 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ SF | Ryan Feltner vs TBD | 1.223 | 71% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-09 10:42:10 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-09.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-09.json