Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-10.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 6 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 28 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks16 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Michael Harris II ATL also locks: Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ SEA |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SF |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ COL |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 89% (8/9) | +29pp | KC @ MIN |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | DET @ BAL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~50% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.08/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Hao-Yu Lee · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%🔴 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Nick Gonzales · Total Bases 70%🟢 Bryson Stott · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Kyle Stowers · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TEX |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ COL |
| Tyrone Taylor NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Hao-Yu Lee DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | BAL @ DET |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Nicky Lopez TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TEX |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TEX |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ KC |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Nick Gonzales · Total BasesEzequiel Duran · Hits+Runs+RBIsMichael Harris II · Total BasesJake McCarthy · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1065 🔴 Demons / 236 🟢 Goblins / 37 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 2/10 20% | 79.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Bieber (7.21 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 5/10 50% | 76.4 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Kay (5.30 ERA) |
| 3 | CJ Abrams🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 8/10 80% | 73.3 | Solid bat · on hot streak (16% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Bieber (7.21 rec |
| 4 | Riley Greene DET | 1.5 | MORE | 45 | 5/10 50% | 73.1 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Kremer (4.64 ERA) |
| 5 | Brandon Nimmo TEX | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 5/10 50% | 71.7 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Jax (5.02 ERA) |
| 6 | Willson Contreras BOS | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 5/10 50% | 71.4 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard |
| 7 | Griffin Conine MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 4/10 40% | 70.5 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Nola |
| 8 | Drake Baldwin🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 6/10 60% | 70.4 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Scott (ace, |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Kyle Schwarber, Otto Lopez, J.T. Realmuto, Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Colt Keith
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 10 Demons + 12 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+1.16–$+2.60/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ DET
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAA @ HOU
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
72.0% combined
EV $+3.32–$+6.78/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ DET
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAA @ HOU
🟢 GOBKyle Stowers Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PHI @ MIA
🟢 GOBNick Gonzales Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · AZ @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
50.4% combined
EV $+3.54–$+8.07/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMHao-Yu Lee Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · BAL @ DET
🔴 DEMJeremy Peña Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 2.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · LAA @ HOU
🔴 DEMNick Gonzales Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · AZ @ PIT
🟢 GOBKyle Stowers Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PHI @ MIA
🟢 GOBMichael Harris II Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYM @ ATL
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-28T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 129 | $+4.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 62% | 101 | $+2.50 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 63 | $-4.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 46% | 755 | $-5.70 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 184 | $-42.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 964 | $-22.20 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (964 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (184 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 46% (755 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (63 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2722 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ NYM | Chris Sale vs Christian Scott | 0.851 | 43% | 2.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ CIN | Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns | 0.936 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ ATH | Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump | 0.987 | 37% | 2.68x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ LAA | Peter Lambert vs Reid Detmers | 1.023 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ CIN | Gavin Williams vs TBD | 1.032 | 36% | 2.81x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ SF | Logan Henderson vs Landen Roupp | 1.068 | 34% | 2.91x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ @ PIT | Brandon Pfaadt vs Bubba Chandler | 1.424 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | Colin Rea vs TBD | 1.311 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ MIA | Aaron Nola vs Sandy Alcantara | 1.29 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ LAD | Luis Castillo vs TBD | 1.269 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CWS | Gerrit Cole vs Anthony Kay | 1.215 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ WSH | Shane Bieber vs Cade Cavalli | 1.205 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-28 06:27:57 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-28.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-28.json