edgeboard
MONEY SLATE · LIVE
2026-08-06 06:30 PT · refreshed just now
PITCHERS NOW
VEGAS
LINEUPS
WEATHER NOW
KALSHI HR
PP EDGES NOW
ML EDGES
WC EDGES
TENNIS NOW
TOTAL PICKS
11
locked today
ELITE
0
top tier
STRONG
0
tier 2
REAL $ PLAN
$0
0 fires
STOP-LOSS YELLOW — 7-day portfolio P&L = $-148.64. Halve real-money stakes today.
Live Portfolio · today
SportP&LRecordLiveHealth
⚾ MLB$0.000W / 0L8 live(early)
⚽ WC$0.000W / 0L10 live(early)
🏈 NFL$0.000W / 0L12 live(early)
PORTFOLIO$0.000W / 0L30 live
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks19 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

PlayerStat / variantLineL10 hit%Edge vs PPGame
Jo Adell CLEHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppNYM @ CLE
Andruw Monasterio BOS
also locks: Hits, Total Bases
Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCWS @ BOS
Brandon Lowe PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppMIL @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppMIL @ PIT
CJ Abrams WSHHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppPHI @ WSH
Cal Raleigh SEAHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppDET @ SEA
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS
also locks: Hits, Total Bases
Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCWS @ BOS
Eugenio Suárez CINHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppATH @ CIN
Jake Mangum PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppMIL @ PIT
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATLHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppMIA @ ATL
Ryan Jeffers MIN
also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppKC @ MIN
Ty France SDHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppAZ @ SD
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~26% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$4.29/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Ceddanne Rafaela · Total Bases 70%🔴 Miguel Amaya · Hits 60%🟢 Jo Adell · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 CJ Abrams · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →
🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

PlayerStat / variantLineEst hit%Edge vs PPGame
Brandon Lowe PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppMIL @ PIT
Ceddanne Rafaela BOSTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppCWS @ BOS
Miguel Amaya CHCHits 🔴 DEMON0.560% (6/10)+20.0ppTOR @ CHC
Miguel Amaya CHCTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON0.560% (6/10)+20.0ppTOR @ CHC
Max Clark DETHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.560% (3/5)+20.0ppSEA @ DET
Javier Báez DETTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (3/5)+20.0ppSEA @ DET
Javier Báez DETHits 🔴 DEMON1.560% (3/5)+20.0ppSEA @ DET
Ceddanne Rafaela BOSHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON2.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCWS @ BOS
Bryan Reynolds PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppMIL @ PIT
Travis Bazzana CLEHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ CLE
Nathaniel Lowe CLEHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ CLE
Nathaniel Lowe CLETotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ CLE
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Brandon Lowe · Hits+Runs+RBIsCeddanne Rafaela · Total BasesMiguel Amaya · HitsMax Clark · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →
🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 772 🔴 Demons / 180 🟢 Goblins / 25 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#PlayerLineSidePA14L10ScoreWhy
1Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BAL
1.5MORE423/10 30%78.3Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Johnson (5.31 ERA)
2Bryce Harper
PHI
1.5MORE566/10 60%74.3Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Mikolas (5.38 ERA)
3Wilyer Abreu🔥 HOT
BOS
1.5MORE615/10 50%73.3Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Castillo (4.8
4Pete Alonso
BAL
1.5MORE563/10 30%72.2Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Johnson (5.31 ERA)
5Drake Baldwin
ATL
1.5MORE624/10 40%71.9Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing average Junk
6Griffin Conine
MIA
1.5MORE453/10 30%71.0Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Pérez
7Matt Olson
ATL
1.5MORE606/10 60%70.7Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Junk
8Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
1.5MORE382/9 22%68.9Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Junk
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Bryce HarperTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%WSH @ PHI
2Wilyer AbreuTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%CWS @ BOS
3Pete AlonsoTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%LAA @ BAL
Why:
  • 3 separate games (WSH @ PHI / CWS @ BOS / LAA @ BAL) → zero same-game correlation
  • All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
  • All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
  • All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.63x (EV $-0.37/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
3/39%3.0x
2/336%1.0x
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Bryce HarperTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%WSH @ PHI
2Wilyer AbreuTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%CWS @ BOS
3Pete AlonsoTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%LAA @ BAL
4Drake BaldwinTotal Bases1.5MORE4/10 40%MIA @ ATL
Why:
  • Add Drake Baldwin at MIA @ ATL
  • 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
  • Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.51x (EV $-0.49/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
4/44%6.0x
3/420%1.5x
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from MIA @ ATL — bigger upside, bigger variance.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Drake BaldwinTotal Bases1.5MORE4/10 40%MIA @ ATL
2Matt OlsonTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%MIA @ ATL
3Ronald Acuña Jr.Total Bases1.5MORE2/9 22%MIA @ ATL
Why:
  • 3 batters from MIA @ ATL → correlated
  • If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
  • If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 41% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.46x (EV $-0.54/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
3/35%3.0x
2/330%1.0x
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Jackson Holliday, Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Nolan Schanuel, Elly De La Cruz, Jacob Wilson, Noelvi Marte, Dane Myers
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 13 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ PIT
🔴 DEMCeddanne Rafaela Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CWS @ BOS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
44.1% combined
EV $+1.65–$+3.76/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ PIT
🔴 DEMCeddanne Rafaela Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CWS @ BOS
🟢 GOBJo Adell Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYM @ CLE
🟢 GOBRonald Acuña Jr. Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIA @ ATL
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
30.9% combined
EV $+1.78–$+4.56/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMBrandon Lowe Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ PIT
🔴 DEMCeddanne Rafaela Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CWS @ BOS
🔴 DEMBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ PIT
🟢 GOBJo Adell Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · NYM @ CLE
🟢 GOBRonald Acuña Jr. Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIA @ ATL
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$-148.64 (112 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-06 06:30:14 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-06.json