Money Slate · 2026-07-27

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-7.00. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	$0.00	0W / 0L	9 live	(early)
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	$0.00	0W / 0L	12 live	(early)
PORTFOLIO	$0.00	0W / 0L	31 live	—

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks15 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	PIT @ AZ
Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Total Bases, Hits	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	LAA @ HOU
Michael Harris II ATL also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	NYM @ ATL
Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	AZ @ PIT
Cal Raleigh SEA	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	TEX @ SEA
Heliot Ramos SF	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIL @ SF
Ian Happ CHC	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	STL @ CHC
Isaac Paredes HOU	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	LAA @ HOU
Josh Naylor SEA	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	TEX @ SEA
Nick Kurtz ATH	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	BOS @ ATH
Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases	Hits 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	86% (6/7)	+26pp	DET @ BAL
Colt Emerson SEA	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	TEX @ SEA

Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~58% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$10.52/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Hao-Yu Lee · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%🔴 Michael Harris II · Total Bases 80%🔴 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🟢 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Nick Gonzales · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Michael Harris II ATL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	80% (8/10)	+40.0pp	NYM @ ATL
Tyler Locklear AZ	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	67% (4/6)	+26.7pp	PIT @ AZ
Gabriel Moreno AZ	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	80% (8/10)	+40.0pp	PIT @ AZ
Nick Gonzales PIT	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	AZ @ PIT
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYM @ ATL
Tommy White ATH	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	62% (5/8)	+22.5pp	BOS @ ATH
Hao-Yu Lee DET	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	90% (9/10)	+50.0pp	BAL @ DET
Nicky Lopez TEX	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	SEA @ TEX
Joe Mack MIA	Hits 🔴 DEMON	0.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	PHI @ MIA
Seiya Suzuki CHC	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	STL @ CHC
Gabriel Moreno AZ	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	PIT @ AZ
Tyrone Taylor NYM	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	ATL @ NYM

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Michael Harris II · Total BasesTyler Locklear · Hits+Runs+RBIsNick Gonzales · Total BasesTommy White · Total Bases

Open PrizePicks →

🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 5 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 944 🔴 Demons / 209 🟢 Goblins / 43 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#	Player	Line	Side	PA14	L10	Score	Why
1	Brandon Nimmo TEX	1.5	MORE	37	5/10 50%	58.5	Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA)
2	Jake Burger TEX	1.5	MORE	34	4/10 40%	50.5	Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA)
3	Wyatt Langford TEX	1.5	MORE	37	5/10 50%	49.7	Average bat · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA)
4	Ezequiel Duran TEX	1.5	MORE	36	6/10 60%	41.5	Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA)
5	Nicky Lopez TEX	1.5	MORE	32	2/10 20%	37.2	Below-avg bat · tough matchup — Kirby (ace, 3.74 ERA)

High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)

All 4 from SEA @ TEX — bigger upside, bigger variance.

#	Player	Stat	Line	Side	L10	Game
1	Brandon Nimmo	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	5/10 50%	SEA @ TEX
2	Jake Burger	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	4/10 40%	SEA @ TEX
3	Wyatt Langford	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	5/10 50%	SEA @ TEX
4	Ezequiel Duran	Total Bases	1.5	MORE	6/10 60%	SEA @ TEX

Why:

4 batters from SEA @ TEX → correlated
If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together

📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)

Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 55.0% per leg

Expected payout: 0.73x (EV $-0.27/$1)

Hit	P(k)	Pays
4/4	6%	6.0x
3/4	25%	1.5x

🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays1 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 0 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST

2-pick

3.0–5.0xpayout range

49.0% combined

EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1

Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.

🔴 DEMNicky Lopez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · SEA @ TEX

🔴 DEMJoc Pederson Total Bases MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · SEA @ TEX

$5 → $15–$25

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-27T05:36.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	68%	132	$+4.80
🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks	61%	107	$+2.30
🔴UNKNOWN	49%	70	$-6.89
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	44%	752	$-8.60
🔴Tennis-Total Games	39%	979	$-22.50
🔴MLB-Total Bases	38%	191	$-47.00

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (191 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (979 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 44% (752 picks)
🔴 UNKNOWN — 49% (70 picks)

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays

🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted

Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.

Pitcher	Stat	Side	Proj	Edge	Signal	Why
Slade Cecconivs CIN	Pitcher Fantasy Score	MORE 22.5	25.565	+3.1pp	🐎 WORKHORSE	Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2630 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER	1/1	100%
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	1/1	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
PHI @ MIA	Zack Wheeler vs Tyler Phillips	0.807	45%	2.24x	⚡ Kalshi NO
ATL @ NYM	Martín Pérez vs Zac Thornton	0.828	44%	2.29x	⚡ Kalshi NO
BAL @ DET	Kyle Bradish vs Keider Montero	0.895	41%	2.45x	⚡ Kalshi NO
CLE @ CIN	Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns	0.936	39%	2.55x	⚡ Kalshi NO
SEA @ TEX	George Kirby vs Kumar Rocker	0.945	39%	2.57x	⚡ Kalshi NO
HOU @ LAA	Tatsuya Imai vs Walbert Ureña	1.091	34%	2.98x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
MIL @ SF	Brandon Sproat vs Tyler Mahle	1.536	78%	1.27x	⚡ Kalshi YES
AZ @ PIT	Merrill Kelly vs Mitch Keller	1.531	78%	1.28x	⚡ Kalshi YES
TOR @ WSH	Max Scherzer vs Andrew Alvarez	1.417	76%	1.32x	⚡ Kalshi YES
CHC @ STL	David Peterson vs TBD	1.396	75%	1.33x	⚡ Kalshi YES
NYY @ CWS	Max Fried vs Noah Schultz	1.172	69%	1.45x	⚡ Kalshi YES
BOS @ ATH	Payton Tolle vs Jack Perkins	1.155	68%	1.46x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-7.00 (35 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-07-27 09:13:21 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-27.json