| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 35 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BOS @ PIT |
| Brett Bateman TOR also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (8/8) | +40pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Bryson Stott PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ PHI |
| Carson Benge NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Dylan Crews WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ AZ |
| Austin Riley ATL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | AZ @ ATL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ PIT |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Luke Keaschall MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ MIN |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ BOS |
| James McCann AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ AZ |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Spencer Torkelson DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CWS @ DET |
| Royce Lewis MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ MIN |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ SD |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ BOS |
| Brett Bateman TOR | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 62% (5/8) | +22.5pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | ATL @ AZ |
| Corbin Carroll AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | ATL @ AZ |
| Jacob Young WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ AZ |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1007 🔴 Demons / 221 🟢 Goblins / 32 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac Caglianone🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 5/10 50% | 80.3 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Johnson (5.54 |
| 2 | Alec Burleson🔥 HOT STL | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 74.1 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Cabrera (4 |
| 3 | Mike Trout LAA | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 5/10 50% | 71.6 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Cameron |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 60 | 5/10 50% | 70.4 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing average Kremer |
| 5 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 5/10 50% | 70.3 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing average Soroka |
| 6 | Carson Benge🔥 HOT NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 8/10 80% | 69.2 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing vulnerable Irvin (5.36 ERA) |
| 7 | Ronald Acuña Jr.🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 5/10 50% | 68.7 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing average Soroka |
| 8 | Heriberto Hernández MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 4/10 40% | 68.6 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lodolo (6.18 recent ERA) |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | KC @ LAA |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | MIN @ PHI |
| 3 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | AZ @ ATL |
- 3 separate games (KC @ LAA / MIN @ PHI / AZ @ ATL) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | KC @ LAA |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | MIN @ PHI |
| 3 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | AZ @ ATL |
| 4 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | CLE @ SD |
- Add Fernando Tatis Jr. at CLE @ SD
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 8% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 28% | 1.5x |
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-16T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 82% | 74 | $+4.80 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 73 | $+2.50 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 56% | 43 | $+0.15 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 47% | 601 | $-4.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 42% | 273 | $-41.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 31% | 479 | $-17.90 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 31% (479 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 42% (273 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 47% (601 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 56% (43 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays7 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbinsvs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 20.5 | 28.673 | +8.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Edward Cabreravs STL | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 4.9 | +3.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 99 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Cody Bradfordvs ATH | Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS 25.5 | 22.399 | -3.1pp | 🩹 RECENT RETURN | Return-from-IL — first 2026 start 2026-08-05 (11d ago), only 2 starts |
| Bryce Eldervs AZ | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.5 | +3.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 105 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Jacob Lopezvs TEX | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Hunter Dobbinsvs CHC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Noah Cameronvs LAA | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.6 | +2.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 106 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-1530 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TOR | Ryan Weathers vs Dylan Cease | 0.769 | 46% | 2.16x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ LAD | Logan Henderson vs Tarik Skubal | 0.814 | 44% | 2.26x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ CLE | Casey Mize vs Tanner Bibee | 0.953 | 38% | 2.59x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ ATL | Michael Soroka vs Bryce Elder | 0.982 | 37% | 2.67x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ HOU | Bryan Woo vs Hunter Brown | 0.992 | 37% | 2.7x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ DET | Sean Burke vs Drew Anderson | 0.993 | 37% | 2.7x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ MIN | Andrew Painter vs Dean Kremer | 1.506 | 78% | 1.29x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BAL @ TB | Trevor Rogers vs Freddy Peralta | 1.324 | 73% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ LAA | Noah Cameron vs Ryan Johnson | 1.284 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ CHC | Hunter Dobbins vs Edward Cabrera | 1.254 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ NYM | Jake Irvin vs Christian Scott | 1.241 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BOS @ PIT | Patrick Sandoval vs Lake Bachar | 1.078 | 66% | 1.52x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-16.json