Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-14.36. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 8 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 18 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks21 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ PIT |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Jacob Wilson ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ ATH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Josh Naylor SEA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Ryan Waldschmidt AZ | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PHI @ NYY |
| Colt Emerson SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TEX @ SEA |
| Hunter Goodman COL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ COL |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CWS @ HOU |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ COL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~39% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.84/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Isaac Collins · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Brayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Willson Contreras · Total Bases 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Gabriel Moreno · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ CLE |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TOR @ BOS |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Javier Sanoja MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIA |
| Michael Busch CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ CHC |
| Nolan Arenado AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | WSH @ AZ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ NYM |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ COL |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CHC @ PIT |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Vinnie Pasquantino · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrayan Rocchio · Hits+Runs+RBIsWillson Contreras · Total BasesSeiya Suzuki · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1173 🔴 Demons / 257 🟢 Goblins / 46 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griffin Conine🔥 HOT MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 30 | 5/10 50% | 81.7 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (13% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Márquez (5.8 |
| 2 | James Wood WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 4/10 40% | 80.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Rodriguez (5.11 ERA) |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 6/10 60% | 78.1 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Arrighetti (5.07 ERA) |
| 4 | Esmerlyn Valdez🔥 HOT PIT | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 8/10 80% | 76.5 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (16% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Boyd ( |
| 5 | Yordan Alvarez🔥 HOT HOU | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 9/10 90% | 76.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing average Martin |
| 6 | Juan Soto NYM | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 2/10 20% | 75.0 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Sasaki (4.59 ERA) |
| 7 | CJ Abrams🔥 HOT WSH | 1.5 | MORE | 40 | 6/10 60% | 72.7 | Solid bat · on hot streak (10% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Rodriguez (5 |
| 8 | Shohei Ohtani LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 3/10 30% | 71.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Manaea |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich, Cole Carrigg, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 8 Demons + 16 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMIsaac Collins Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ KC
🔴 DEMBrayan Rocchio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TB @ CLE
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+2.36–$+5.05/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMIsaac Collins Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ KC
🔴 DEMBrayan Rocchio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TB @ CLE
🟢 GOBBrandon Lowe Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ AZ
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
39.2% combined
EV $+2.53–$+6.06/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMIsaac Collins Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ KC
🔴 DEMBrayan Rocchio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TB @ CLE
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · TOR @ BOS
🟢 GOBBrandon Lowe Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CHC @ PIT
🟢 GOBRyan Waldschmidt Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · WSH @ AZ
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-24T05:34.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 67% | 156 | $+5.40 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 58% | 135 | $+2.10 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 85 | $-6.31 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 938 | $-14.80 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 217 | $-51.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1138 | $-27.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1138 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (217 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (938 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (85 picks)
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2310 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅NORMAL / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ DET | Beck Way vs Tarik Skubal | 0.786 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ TB | Joey Cantillo vs Shane McClanahan | 0.87 | 42% | 2.39x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ TEX | Bryce Miller vs MacKenzie Gore | 0.94 | 39% | 2.56x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYY @ PHI | Will Warren vs Jesús Luzardo | 1.037 | 36% | 2.82x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| ATL @ BAL | Grant Holmes vs TBD | 1.105 | 33% | 3.02x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TOR @ BOS | Trey Yesavage vs Patrick Sandoval | 1.117 | 33% | 3.05x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH @ MIN | Jacob Lopez vs Zebby Matthews | 1.541 | 79% | 1.27x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ NYM | Roki Sasaki vs Sean Manaea | 1.361 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ STL | Rhett Lowder vs Dustin May | 1.355 | 74% | 1.35x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ PIT | Matthew Boyd vs Jared Jones | 1.325 | 73% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ MIA | Germán Márquez vs TBD | 1.265 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ MIL | Tomoyuki Sugano vs Shane Drohan | 1.227 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-24 06:11:23 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-24.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-24.json