Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-10.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 6 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 28 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks17 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ PHI |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Kyle Stowers MIA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ MIA |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ SEA |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Heliot Ramos SF | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SF |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ HOU |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ COL |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 89% (8/9) | +29pp | KC @ MIN |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 86% (6/7) | +26pp | DET @ BAL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~50% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.08/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Hao-Yu Lee · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%🔴 Steven Kwan · Total Bases 80%🔴 Nick Gonzales · Total Bases 70%🟢 Bryson Stott · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Jeremy Peña · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | AZ @ PIT |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TEX |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ COL |
| Tyrone Taylor NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Hao-Yu Lee DET | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 90% (9/10) | +50.0pp | BAL @ DET |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ AZ |
| Nicky Lopez TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TEX |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TB @ TEX |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ NYM |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ KC |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ ATL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Nick Gonzales · Total BasesEzequiel Duran · Hits+Runs+RBIsMichael Harris II · Total BasesJake McCarthy · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1147 🔴 Demons / 250 🟢 Goblins / 46 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 4/10 40% | 72.6 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing average Williams |
| 2 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 4/10 40% | 68.8 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing average Williams |
| 3 | JJ Bleday CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 1/10 10% | 66.0 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing average Williams |
| 4 | Eugenio Suárez🔥 HOT CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 33 | 5/10 50% | 58.6 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park |
| 5 | Petey Halpin🔥 HOT CLE | 0.5 | MORE | 31 | 5/10 50% | 50.2 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) |
| 6 | Travis Bazzana🔥 HOT CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 4/10 40% | 48.5 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) |
| 7 | Steven Kwan CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 8/10 80% | 46.0 | Average bat |
| 8 | Brayan Rocchio CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 4/10 40% | 43.0 | Below-avg bat |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from CLE @ CIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CLE @ CIN |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CLE @ CIN |
| 3 | JJ Bleday | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 1/10 10% | CLE @ CIN |
| 4 | Eugenio Suárez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CLE @ CIN |
Why:
- 4 batters from CLE @ CIN → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 35% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.20x (EV $-0.80/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 1% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 10% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Chase DeLauter
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-28T05:35.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 68% | 129 | $+4.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 62% | 101 | $+2.50 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 51% | 63 | $-4.40 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 46% | 755 | $-5.70 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 184 | $-42.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 964 | $-22.20 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (964 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (184 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 46% (755 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 51% (63 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays5 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 1 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandlervs AZ | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 21.5 | 28.303 | +6.8pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Aaron Nolavs MIA | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 30.595 | +4.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Slade Cecconivs CIN | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 22.5 | 25.796 | +3.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Bubba Chandlervs AZ | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.8 | +2.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Chris Salevs NYM | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 3.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-2722 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ NYM | Chris Sale vs Christian Scott | 0.851 | 43% | 2.34x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ CIN | Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns | 0.936 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ ATH | Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump | 0.987 | 37% | 2.68x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ LAA | Peter Lambert vs Reid Detmers | 1.023 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CLE @ CIN | Gavin Williams vs TBD | 1.032 | 36% | 2.81x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ SF | Logan Henderson vs Landen Roupp | 1.068 | 34% | 2.91x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ @ PIT | Brandon Pfaadt vs Bubba Chandler | 1.424 | 76% | 1.32x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CHC @ STL | Colin Rea vs TBD | 1.311 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ MIA | Aaron Nola vs Sandy Alcantara | 1.29 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SEA @ LAD | Luis Castillo vs TBD | 1.269 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CWS | Gerrit Cole vs Anthony Kay | 1.215 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TOR @ WSH | Shane Bieber vs Cade Cavalli | 1.205 | 70% | 1.43x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-28 09:15:20 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-28.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-28.json