Money Slate · 2026-10-07

Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-2.00. Stake plan unchanged.

Live Portfolio · today

Sport	P&L	Record	Live	Health
⚾ MLB	—	no slate today
⚽ WC	$0.00	0W / 0L	10 live	(early)
🏈 NFL	$0.00	0W / 0L	12 live	(early)
PORTFOLIO	$0.00	0W / 0L	22 live	—

Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked

FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires

No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.

PrizePicks

Pitcher Plays

1st Inning

Parlays

Results

🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks17 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	L10 hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Jackson Chourio MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	SD @ MIL
Munetaka Murakami CWS	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	100% (10/10)	+40pp	CLE @ CWS
Colson Montgomery CWS	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	CLE @ CWS
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD also locks: Hitter Strikeouts	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	MIL @ SD
Freddie Freeman LAD	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	90% (9/10)	+30pp	ATL @ LAD
Ben Rice NYY	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	TB @ NYY
Chase Meidroth CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	CLE @ CWS
Dustin Harris SD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	MIL @ SD
Garrett Mitchell MIL	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	SD @ MIL
Jackson Merrill SD	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	MIL @ SD
Jake Bauers MIL	Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	SD @ MIL
Joey Ortiz MIL also locks: Hits, Total Bases	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN	0.5	80% (8/10)	+20pp	SD @ MIL

Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play

3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~26% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$4.18/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.

🔴 Chase Meidroth · Total Bases 80%🔴 Jackson Merrill · Hits+Runs+RBIs 60%🔴 Mauricio Dubón · Hits+Runs+RBIs 60%🟢 Jackson Chourio · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Freddie Freeman · Hitter Strikeouts 90%

Open PrizePicks →

🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons14 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

Player	Stat / variant	Line	Est hit%	Edge vs PP	Game
Jackson Merrill SD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIL @ SD
Mauricio Dubón ATL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	LAD @ ATL
Xander Bogaerts SD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIL @ SD
Joey Ortiz MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SD @ MIL
Chase Meidroth CWS	Total Bases 🔴 DEMON	1.5	80% (8/10)	+40.0pp	CLE @ CWS
Sam Antonacci CWS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	70% (7/10)	+30.0pp	CLE @ CWS
Spencer Jones NYY	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	TB @ NYY
Jackson Chourio MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SD @ MIL
Christian Yelich MIL	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	SD @ MIL
Chase Meidroth CWS	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	2.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	CLE @ CWS
Jonny DeLuca TB	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	NYY @ TB
Luis Campusano SD	Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON	1.5	60% (6/10)	+20.0pp	MIL @ SD

Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)

Jackson Merrill · Hits+Runs+RBIsMauricio Dubón · Hits+Runs+RBIsJoey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIsChase Meidroth · Total Bases

Open PrizePicks →

🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 5 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST

2-pick

3.0–5.0xpayout range

56.0% combined

EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1

Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.

🔴 DEMChase Meidroth Total Bases MORE 1.5

8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ CWS

🔴 DEMSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS

$5 → $15–$25

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚖️ BALANCED

4-pick

6.0–10.8xpayout range

50.4% combined

EV $+2.02–$+4.44/$1

2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.

🔴 DEMChase Meidroth Total Bases MORE 1.5

8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ CWS

🔴 DEMSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5

7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS

🟢 GOBJackson Chourio Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

10/10 L10 (100%) · SD @ MIL

🟢 GOBFernando Tatis Jr. Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5

9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ SD

$5 → $30–$54

⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked

Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-07T05:30.

Prop category	Hit %	N	P&L
🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks	79%	29	$+1.70
🟢Tennis-Total Sets	77%	56	$+3.00
🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks	57%	7	$+1.50
🔴Tennis-Total Games Won	49%	194	$-0.20
🔴Tennis-Total Games	43%	395	$-5.70
🔴UNKNOWN	41%	22	$-6.18
🔴MLB-Total Bases	39%	350	$-76.00

🚨 Auto-fade these categories

🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (350 picks)
🔴 UNKNOWN — 41% (22 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 43% (395 picks)
🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 49% (194 picks)

🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)

🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-10-064 starters audited

Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.

Tier	Hit / N	Hit %
✅WORKHORSE / SKIP	1/1	100%

🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model

🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
TB @ NYY	Nick Martinez vs Max Fried	0.847	43%	2.33x	⚡ Kalshi NO
CLE @ CWS	Daniel Espino vs Sean Newcomb	1.04	35%	2.83x	⚡ Kalshi NO
LAD @ ATL	Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Mahle	1.1	33%	3.0x	⚡ Kalshi NO
MIL @ SD	TBD vs Walker Buehler	1.324	27%	3.76x	⚡ Kalshi NO

⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)

Game	Starters	Exp R1	Prob	Fair odds	Fire
MIL @ SD	TBD vs Walker Buehler	1.324	73%	1.36x	⚡ Kalshi YES
LAD @ ATL	Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Mahle	1.1	67%	1.5x	⚡ Kalshi YES
CLE @ CWS	Daniel Espino vs Sean Newcomb	1.04	65%	1.55x	⚡ Kalshi YES
TB @ NYY	Nick Martinez vs Max Fried	0.847	57%	1.75x	⚡ Kalshi YES

Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2 →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$-2.00 (14 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked

ELITE / STRONG0 / 0

7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

Money Slate · generated 2026-10-07 07:08:41 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-07.json