edgeboard
MONEY SLATE · LIVE
2026-07-18 09:15 PT · refreshed just now
PITCHERS NOW
VEGAS NOW
LINEUPS
WEATHER NOW
KALSHI HR
PP EDGES NOW
ML EDGES NOW
WC EDGES
TENNIS NOW
TOTAL PICKS
7
locked today
ELITE
0
top tier
STRONG
0
tier 2
REAL $ PLAN
$0
0 fires
Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-25.41. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
SportP&LRecordLiveHealth
⚾ MLB$0.000W / 0L8 live(early)
⚽ WC$0.000W / 0L10 live(early)
🏈 NFLno slate today
PORTFOLIO$0.000W / 0L18 live
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks18 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

PlayerStat / variantLineL10 hit%Edge vs PPGame
Bryan Reynolds PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppCLE @ PIT
Colt Emerson SEAHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppSF @ SEA
Gabriel Moreno AZ
also locks: Hits, Total Bases
Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppSTL @ AZ
James Outman DETHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppLAA @ DET
Xavier Edwards MIAHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppMIL @ MIA
Brandon Marsh PHIHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppNYM @ PHI
Carter Jensen KCHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSD @ KC
Corbin Carroll AZHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSTL @ AZ
Heliot Ramos SF
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSEA @ SF
Jake McCarthy COLHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCIN @ COL
Jeremy Peña HOUHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppBAL @ HOU
Kyle Schwarber PHIHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppNYM @ PHI
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~45% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.96/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Lane Thomas · Total Bases 80%🔴 Luke Keaschall · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Heliot Ramos · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Bryan Reynolds · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Colt Emerson · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →
🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

PlayerStat / variantLineEst hit%Edge vs PPGame
Heliot Ramos SFHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppSEA @ SF
Garrett Mitchell MILHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppMIA @ MIL
Esmerlyn Valdez PITTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCLE @ PIT
Nolan Schanuel LAAHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppDET @ LAA
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer ATHTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppWSH @ ATH
Lane Thomas KCTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.580% (8/10)+40.0ppSD @ KC
A.J. Ewing NYMHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppPHI @ NYM
Mauricio Dubón ATLTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppTEX @ ATL
Josh Jung TEXTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppATL @ TEX
Liam Hicks MIAHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON2.560% (6/10)+20.0ppMIL @ MIA
Garrett Mitchell MILTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppMIA @ MIL
Chase DeLauter CLETotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppPIT @ CLE
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Heliot Ramos · Hits+Runs+RBIsGarrett Mitchell · Hits+Runs+RBIsEsmerlyn Valdez · Total BasesNolan Schanuel · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →
🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 1158 🔴 Demons / 259 🟢 Goblins / 39 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#PlayerLineSidePA14L10ScoreWhy
1Elly De La Cruz
CIN
1.5MORE425/10 50%80.1Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.07 rece
2Miguel Vargas
CWS
1.5MORE404/10 40%79.5Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Bieber (11.53 recent ERA)
3Sal Stewart
CIN
1.5MORE416/10 60%77.0Solid bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.07 recent ERA
4Spencer Steer🔥 HOT
CIN
1.5MORE375/10 50%75.0Solid bat · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park
5JJ Bleday
CIN
1.5MORE383/10 30%74.2Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing BP-arm Sugano (7.07 recent
6Jac Caglianone
KC
1.5MORE445/10 50%69.9Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Canning (4.67 ERA)
7Bobby Witt Jr.
KC
1.5MORE465/10 50%69.5Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Canning (4.67 ERA)
8Sam Antonacci🔥 HOT
CWS
1.5MORE334/10 40%66.6Above-avg bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Bieber (11.53 recent ERA)
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from COL @ CIN — bigger upside, bigger variance.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Elly De La CruzTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%COL @ CIN
2Sal StewartTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%COL @ CIN
3Spencer SteerTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%COL @ CIN
4JJ BledayTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%COL @ CIN
Why:
  • 4 batters from COL @ CIN → correlated
  • If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
  • If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.61x (EV $-0.39/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
4/44%6.0x
3/422%1.5x
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Brooks Lee, Daulton Varsho, Chase Meidroth, Carter Jensen, Michael Massey, Ozzie Albies, Kyle Manzardo, Travis Bazzana
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 3 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ MIN
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
54.8% combined
EV $+2.29–$+4.92/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMLane Thomas Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ KC
🔴 DEMLuke Keaschall Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CHC @ MIN
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · CLE @ PIT
🟢 GOBJonatan Clase Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
6/7 L10 (86%) · CWS @ TOR
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard + Pro V2

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$-25.41 (62 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-07-18 09:15:06 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-18.json