Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-8.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 23 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 45 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pages LAD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BOS @ LAD |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (6/6) | +40pp | BAL @ PHI |
| James McCann AZ also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Hits | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (6/6) | +40pp | CLE @ AZ |
| James Wood WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | ATL @ WSH |
| Jeremy Peña HOU also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TEX @ HOU |
| Nick Gonzales PIT also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYY @ CHC |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ SEA |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | COL @ KC |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ also locks: Total Bases, Hits | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ AZ |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ MIN |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 89% (8/9) | +29pp | PHI @ BAL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~41% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.16/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 James McCann · Hits+Runs+RBIs 83%🔴 Ceddanne Rafaela · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Nick Gonzales · Total Bases 70%🟢 Andy Pages · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Bryan De La Cruz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McCann AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 83% (5/6) | +43.3pp | CLE @ AZ |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ BOS |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ PHI |
| Bryan De La Cruz PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | BAL @ PHI |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | CLE @ AZ |
| Royce Lewis MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ MIN |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CIN @ PIT |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ CHC |
| Luis Rengifo SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SF @ SD |
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ BOS |
| Ty France SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SF @ SD |
| Cooper Pratt MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAA @ MIL |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
James McCann · Hits+Runs+RBIsCeddanne Rafaela · Hits+Runs+RBIsBryan De La Cruz · Total BasesRoyce Lewis · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1179 🔴 Demons / 266 🟢 Goblins / 50 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Stowers🔥 HOT MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 56 | 6/10 60% | 66.9 | Average bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Thornton (4 |
| 2 | Dominic Canzone SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 5/10 50% | 66.9 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Prielipp |
| 3 | Heriberto Hernández MIA | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 5/10 50% | 65.9 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Thornton (4.55 ERA) |
| 4 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 4/10 40% | 61.5 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Rasmussen (ace, 3.12 ERA) |
| 5 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 58 | 5/10 50% | 59.8 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Rasmussen (ace, 3.12 ERA) |
| 6 | Randy Arozarena SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 57 | 3/10 30% | 55.6 | Solid bat · facing average Prielipp |
| 7 | Julio Rodríguez SEA | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 3/10 30% | 55.5 | Solid bat · facing average Prielipp |
| 8 | JJ Wetherholt STL | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 3/10 30% | 53.9 | Solid bat · tough matchup — Gausman (ace, 3.93 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Stowers | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | NYM @ MIA |
| 2 | Dominic Canzone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | MIN @ SEA |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TB @ CWS |
Why:
- 3 separate games (NYM @ MIA / MIN @ SEA / TB @ CWS) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 50% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.74x (EV $-0.26/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 12% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Stowers | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | NYM @ MIA |
| 2 | Dominic Canzone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | MIN @ SEA |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | TB @ CWS |
| 4 | JJ Wetherholt | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | TOR @ STL |
Why:
- Add JJ Wetherholt at TOR @ STL
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.51x (EV $-0.49/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 20% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from MIN @ SEA — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominic Canzone | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | MIN @ SEA |
| 2 | Randy Arozarena | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | MIN @ SEA |
| 3 | Julio Rodríguez | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | MIN @ SEA |
Why:
- 3 batters from MIN @ SEA → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 37% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.39x (EV $-0.61/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 4% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 26% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Ernie Clement, Alec Burleson, Daulton Varsho, Nathan Church, Otto Lopez, Josh Naylor
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-01T05:34.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 80% | 104 | $+6.20 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 67% | 104 | $+3.60 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 50% | 44 | $-6.44 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 48% | 672 | $-3.00 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 178 | $-36.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 34% | 685 | $-21.70 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 34% (685 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (178 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 48% (672 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 50% (44 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays2 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbottvs PIT | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Shane Bazvs PHI | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.5 | +2.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 104 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-07-3130 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅LIMITED_STARTS / PAPER | 1/1 | 100% |
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 2/2 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ NYM | Tyler Phillips vs Zac Thornton | 0.784 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| BOS @ LAD | Payton Tolle vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0.879 | 42% | 2.41x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PHI @ BAL | Cristopher Sánchez vs Shane Baz | 0.937 | 39% | 2.55x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ TB | Jordan Hicks vs Drew Rasmussen | 0.942 | 39% | 2.56x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ CLE | Kohl Drake vs Parker Messick | 1.022 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ SEA | Connor Prielipp vs Logan Gilbert | 1.068 | 34% | 2.91x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ COL | Luinder Avila vs Ryan Feltner | 1.38 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ ATH | Framber Valdez vs Jack Perkins | 1.376 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ ATL | Miles Mikolas vs Reynaldo López | 1.365 | 74% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SF @ SD | Tyler Mahle vs Walker Buehler | 1.312 | 73% | 1.37x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ CHC | Max Fried vs David Peterson | 1.291 | 72% | 1.38x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PIT @ CIN | Braxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott | 1.187 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-01 10:56:46 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-01.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-01.json