Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-14.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 0 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 22 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SD |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Joey Ortiz MIL also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Jonathan Aranda TB | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TB |
| Randal Grichuk CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Sam Antonacci CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| William Contreras MIL also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ MIL |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ NYY |
| Brenton Doyle CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ CWS |
Suggested 4-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 1 Green Lock insurance. ~35% combined hit prob × ~12x = EV +$3.23/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Joey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Jackson Merrill · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Sam Antonacci · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Jonathan Aranda · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons14 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Joey Ortiz MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Spencer Jones NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Sam Antonacci CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Ethan Salas SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| Braden Montgomery CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Jackson Merrill · Hits+Runs+RBIsJoey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIsSpencer Jones · Hits+Runs+RBIsSam Antonacci · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 240 🔴 Demons / 40 🟢 Goblins / 17 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice NYY | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 4/10 40% | 66.1 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 2 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 4/10 40% | 64.1 | Solid bat · crushing the ball |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 3/10 30% | 61.0 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 4 | Junior Caminero TB | 1.5 | MORE | 38 | 4/10 40% | 60.5 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 5 | Jackson Chourio MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 34 | 4/10 40% | 58.5 | Solid bat · hitting it hard |
| 6 | Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 6/10 60% | 58.4 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard |
| 7 | Brice Turang🔥 HOT MIL | 1.5 | MORE | 35 | 5/10 50% | 58.2 | Solid bat · on hot streak (6% HR rate) |
| 8 | Kyle Teel CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 3/10 30% | 55.4 | Average bat · hitting it hard |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from CLE @ CWS — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CLE @ CWS |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CLE @ CWS |
| 3 | Kyle Teel | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | CLE @ CWS |
Why:
- 3 batters from CLE @ CWS → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 33% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.33x (EV $-0.67/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 4% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 22% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Braden Montgomery, Colson Montgomery, Yandy Díaz, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 7 Demons + 10 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
56.0% combined
EV $+0.68–$+1.80/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ MIL
🔴 DEMJackson Merrill Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ SD
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
45.4% combined
EV $+1.72–$+3.90/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ MIL
🔴 DEMJackson Merrill Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ SD
🟢 GOBColson Montgomery Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CLE @ CWS
🟢 GOBJonathan Aranda Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ TB
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
31.8% combined
EV $+1.86–$+4.72/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SD @ MIL
🔴 DEMJackson Merrill Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · MIL @ SD
🔴 DEMSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS
🟢 GOBJonathan Aranda Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · NYY @ TB
🟢 GOBFernando Tatis Jr. Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ SD
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-02T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 77% | 13 | $+0.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 77% | 13 | $+0.70 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 57% | 7 | $+1.50 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 49% | 75 | $-0.10 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 45% | 22 | $-2.27 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 40% | 429 | $-83.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 39% | 112 | $-2.40 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 39% (112 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 40% (429 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 45% (22 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 49% (75 picks)
NRFI/YRFI predictions not yet available for today.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-10-02 11:37:26 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-02.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-02.json