Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+16.54. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | -$12.47 | 0W / 0L | 6 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | -$8.76 | 1W / 5L | 30 live | 🚨 SMOKED |
| 🎾 Tennis | +$1.00 | 1W / 0L | 4 live | · |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | -$20.23 | 2W / 5L | 40 live | 29% hit |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks11 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran BOS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIN @ BOS |
| Adolis García PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ PHI |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SF @ CWS |
| Jake Bauers MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases ⚪ STANDARD | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +40pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Nick Sogard BOS also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 83% (5/6) | +23pp | MIN @ BOS |
| Aaron Judge NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ NYY |
| Bobby Witt Jr. KC also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SEA @ KC |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Jackson Chourio MIL also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Ramón Laureano SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATH @ SD |
| Xavier Edwards MIA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | NYM @ MIA |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~32% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$5.35/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Willson Contreras · Total Bases 80%🔴 Jake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Ryan Kreidler · Total Bases 70%🟢 Adolis García · Hitter Strikeouts 90%🟢 Colson Montgomery · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons12 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Ryan Kreidler MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | BOS @ MIN |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Kyle Schwarber PHI | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PHI |
| Otto Lopez MIA | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYM @ MIA |
| Nick Kurtz ATH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ ATH |
| Willson Contreras BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIN @ BOS |
| Kyle Schwarber PHI | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ PHI |
| Ryan Kreidler MIN | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | BOS @ MIN |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Jonathan Aranda TB | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ TB |
| Mark Vientos NYM | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIA @ NYM |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Jake Bauers · Hits+Runs+RBIsRyan Kreidler · Total BasesKyle Schwarber · Total BasesOtto Lopez · Total Bases
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 790 🔴 Demons / 197 🟢 Goblins / 26 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 4/10 40% | 79.5 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing BP-arm Singer (6.06 recent ERA) |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 4/10 40% | 78.3 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Ray (5.19 ERA) |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 5/10 50% | 77.0 | Above-avg bat · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Ray (5.19 ERA) |
| 4 | Casey Schmitt SF | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 77.0 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Schultz (5.02 ERA) |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani LAD | 0.5 | MORE | 54 | 9/10 90% | 76.9 | Elite bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.79 ERA) |
| 6 | Alec Burleson STL | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 5/10 50% | 73.9 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Singer (6.06 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 54 | 3/10 30% | 72.0 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Mautz (4.50 ERA |
| 8 | Spencer Steer CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 8/10 80% | 71.9 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Mautz (4.50 ERA) |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Walker | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ STL |
| 2 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SF @ CWS |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 9/10 90% | MIL @ LAD |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CIN @ STL / SF @ CWS / MIL @ LAD) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 60% · math says +EV ✓
Expected payout: 1.01x (EV +$0.01/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 18% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 47% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Walker | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | CIN @ STL |
| 2 | Munetaka Murakami | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SF @ CWS |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | 0.5 | MORE | 9/10 90% | MIL @ LAD |
| 4 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | STL @ CIN |
Why:
- Add Sal Stewart at STL @ CIN
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 52% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.72x (EV $-0.28/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 5% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 27% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Wilyer Abreu, Brooks Lee, Aaron Judge, Adolis García, Brandon Marsh, Daniel Schneemann, Carson Benge, Otto Lopez
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 4 Demons + 6 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ BOS
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · STL @ CIN
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
51.8% combined
EV $+2.11–$+4.60/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ BOS
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · STL @ CIN
⚪ STAJake Bauers Total Bases MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · LAD @ MIL
🟢 GOBAdolis García Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CLE @ PHI
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
36.3% combined
EV $+2.27–$+5.53/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMWillson Contreras Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIN @ BOS
🔴 DEMSpencer Steer Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · STL @ CIN
🔴 DEMJake Bauers Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · LAD @ MIL
🟢 GOBAdolis García Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CLE @ PHI
🟢 GOBAlec Burleson Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · CIN @ STL
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d9 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-05-25T05:43.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Fantasy | 68% | 22 | $+8.00 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitching Outs | 60% | 5 | $+1.50 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 58% | 19 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡Tennis-Total Games Won | 54% | 13 | $+1.00 |
| 🟡OTHER-btts_no | 50% | 12 | $-0.27 |
| 🟡MLB-Total Bases | 50% | 10 | $+0.00 |
| 🔴OTHER-h2h_away | 40% | 5 | $-2.95 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 17% | 41 | $-111.10 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_home — 0% (5 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 17% (41 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-h2h_away — 40% (5 picks)
- 🔴 OTHER-btts_no — 50% (12 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays3 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lambertvs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 30.132 | +5.6pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 104 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| MacKenzie Gorevs LAA | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 27.5 | 31.213 | +3.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Peter Lambertvs CHC | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 104 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH @ SD | Luis Medina vs Michael King | 0.703 | 50% | 2.02x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ BOS | Bailey Ober vs Sonny Gray | 0.765 | 46% | 2.15x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ KC | Bryan Woo vs Seth Lugo | 0.8 | 45% | 2.23x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| NYM @ MIA | Christian Scott vs Tyler Phillips | 0.876 | 42% | 2.4x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| HOU @ CHC | Peter Lambert vs Shota Imanaga | 0.921 | 40% | 2.51x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ NYY | Drew Rasmussen vs Ryan Weathers | 0.988 | 37% | 2.69x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD @ MIL | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Brandon Sproat | 1.37 | 75% | 1.34x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ CIN | Brycen Mautz vs Brady Singer | 1.322 | 73% | 1.36x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ AZ | Jose Quintana vs Ryne Nelson | 1.26 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| TEX @ LAA | MacKenzie Gore vs Reid Detmers | 1.248 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CWS @ SF | Noah Schultz vs Robbie Ray | 1.191 | 70% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| DET @ BAL | TBD vs Trevor Rogers | 1.179 | 69% | 1.44x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (2 locked)
Today's Results — Settled + Live
2 WON · 0 LOST · 0 live (paper-only model picks) · auto-graded from Kalshi market state. Settled shown first, live capped at 5 most relevant (real-money first, then top edge). Full list: see Accuracy Tracker.
| Sport | Pick | Market | Edge | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis | Barbora Krejcikova 🟢 Under 12.5 total games won | Tennis prop · Total Games Won (PrizePicks) | +25.9pp | ✅ WON |
| WC | Hellas Verona vs Roma · 4/10 At least one team won't score | Both teams to score: NO | +15.4pp | ✅ WON |
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-24 22:43:45 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-24.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-24.json