| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 3 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | — |
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
🟢 Green Locks15 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Rocchio CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Chase DeLauter CLE also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 83% (5/6) | +23pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | DET @ KC |
| Chandler Simpson TB also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ TB |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | ATL @ SD |
| Junior Caminero TB also locks: Hits, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Total Bases 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TOR @ TB |
| Kody Clemens MIN | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Lane Thomas KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | DET @ KC |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ ATL |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ TOR |
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Vinnie Pasquantino KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Ryan Jeffers MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 67% (4/6) | +26.7pp | CLE @ MIN |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Isaac Collins KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SD |
| Steven Kwan CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ CLE |
| Lane Thomas KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | DET @ KC |
| Ty France SD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ SD |
| Ty France SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SD |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ ATL |
| Ty France SD | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ SD |
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 307 🔴 Demons / 62 🟢 Goblins / 17 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 4/10 40% | 66.1 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Hart (ace, 3.75 ERA) |
| 2 | Matt Olson ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 3/10 30% | 59.0 | Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hart (ace, 3.75 ERA) |
| 3 | Kody Clemens MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 41 | 3/10 30% | 58.7 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing average Williams |
| 4 | Michael Harris II ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 47 | 5/10 50% | 56.4 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hart (ace, 3.75 ERA) |
| 5 | Royce Lewis MIN | 1.5 | MORE | 36 | 3/10 30% | 55.7 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average Williams |
| 6 | Austin Riley🔥 HOT ATL | 1.5 | MORE | 42 | 3/10 30% | 55.3 | Below-avg bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Hart (ace, |
| 7 | Fernando Tatis Jr.🔥 HOT SD | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 5/10 50% | 53.6 | Solid bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Sale (ace, 3.31 |
| 8 | Chase DeLauter🔥 HOT CLE | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 6/10 60% | 51.8 | Solid bat · on hot streak (7% HR rate) · tough matchup — Bradley (ace, 3.91 ERA) |
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | SD @ ATL |
| 2 | Matt Olson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | SD @ ATL |
| 3 | Michael Harris II | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | SD @ ATL |
| 4 | Austin Riley | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | SD @ ATL |
- 4 batters from SD @ ATL → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 2% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 13% | 1.5x |
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays1 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 3 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-07-23T05:38.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 70% | 169 | $+6.70 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 55% | 160 | $+1.60 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 52% | 87 | $+1.73 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 42% | 954 | $-14.80 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 38% | 223 | $-55.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 38% | 1222 | $-30.20 |
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 38% (1222 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 38% (223 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 42% (954 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 52% (87 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays1 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Salevs SD | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 4.4 | +2.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ DET | Randy Dobnak vs Troy Melton | 0.706 | 49% | 2.03x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ STL | Brandon Pfaadt vs Michael McGreevy | 1.023 | 36% | 2.78x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIN @ CLE | Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams | 1.13 | 32% | 3.1x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SD @ ATL | Kyle Hart vs Chris Sale | 1.168 | 31% | 3.22x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TB @ TOR | Casey Legumina vs Shane Bieber | 1.257 | 28% | 3.51x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ TOR | Casey Legumina vs Shane Bieber | 1.257 | 72% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ ATL | Kyle Hart vs Chris Sale | 1.168 | 69% | 1.45x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ CLE | Taj Bradley vs Gavin Williams | 1.13 | 68% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| AZ @ STL | Brandon Pfaadt vs Michael McGreevy | 1.023 | 64% | 1.56x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| KC @ DET | Randy Dobnak vs Troy Melton | 0.706 | 51% | 1.98x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-07-23.json