Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-1.00. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 2 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 24 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks22 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIL @ SD |
| Freddie Freeman LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ LAD |
| Miguel Vargas CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Sam Antonacci CWS also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Teoscar Hernández LAD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ LAD |
| Ben Rice NYY | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | TB @ NYY |
| Brayan Rocchio CLE | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CWS @ CLE |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Dustin Harris SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ MIL |
| Jackson Merrill SD | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | MIL @ SD |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 80% (8/10) | +20pp | SD @ MIL |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~24% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$3.76/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Joey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Sam Antonacci · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Spencer Jones · Hits+Runs+RBIs 60%🟢 Fernando Tatis Jr. · Hits+Runs+RBIs 90%🟢 Freddie Freeman · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Ortiz MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Spencer Jones NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| George Lombard Jr. NYY | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | TB @ NYY |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 2.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ SD |
| William Contreras MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Sam Antonacci CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
| Michael Harris II ATL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ ATL |
| Christian Yelich MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| David Hamilton MIL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SD @ MIL |
| Chase Meidroth CWS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ CWS |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Joey Ortiz · Hits+Runs+RBIsSpencer Jones · Hits+Runs+RBIsXander Bogaerts · Hits+Runs+RBIsSam Antonacci · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 5 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ MIL
🔴 DEMSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
39.7% combined
EV $+1.38–$+3.29/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ MIL
🔴 DEMSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS
🟢 GOBFernando Tatis Jr. Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ SD
🟢 GOBTeoscar Hernández Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ LAD
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
27.8% combined
EV $+1.50–$+4.00/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMJoey Ortiz Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · SD @ MIL
🔴 DEMSam Antonacci Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS
🔴 DEMChase Meidroth Total Bases MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · CLE @ CWS
🟢 GOBFernando Tatis Jr. Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · MIL @ SD
🟢 GOBTeoscar Hernández Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · ATL @ LAD
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d7 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-10-05T05:30.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 85% | 20 | $+1.40 |
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 79% | 39 | $+2.30 |
| 🟡MLB-Pitcher Ks | 57% | 7 | $+1.50 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 49% | 132 | $-0.20 |
| 🔴UNKNOWN | 45% | 22 | $-2.27 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 41% | 263 | $-4.70 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 388 | $-82.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (388 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 41% (263 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 45% (22 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 49% (132 picks)
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TB | Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta | 1.052 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| CWS @ CLE | Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams | 1.227 | 29% | 3.41x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ CLE | Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams | 1.227 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| NYY @ TB | Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta | 1.052 | 65% | 1.54x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-10-05 09:14:40 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-05.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-10-05.json