edgeboard
MONEY SLATE · LIVE
2026-05-21 09:12 PT · refreshed just now
PITCHERS NOW
VEGAS NOW
LINEUPS NOW
WEATHER NOW
KALSHI HR NOW
PP EDGES NOW
ML EDGES NOW
WC EDGES
TENNIS NOW
TOTAL PICKS
8
locked today
ELITE
1
top tier
STRONG
0
tier 2
REAL $ PLAN
$5
1 fires
Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $+137.80. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
SportP&LRecordLiveHealth
⚾ MLB$0.000W / 0L17 live(early)
⚽ WC$0.000W / 0L10 live(early)
🏈 NFLno slate today
PORTFOLIO$0.000W / 0L27 live
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan 1 ranked
ELITE · +6.4pp
Brandon Lowe
Will hit a home run · Home run (Kalshi)
$5
→ $35.71
Fire $5 on Kalshi →
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $5 total stake · 1 fires
Real Money Plan — Kalshi + PrizePicks (CA-legal)
SportPickMarketSideTierEdgeStakeMax PayoutFire
MLBBrandon Lowe
Home run (Kalshi)Will hit a home runELITE+6.4pp$5$35.71Fire on Kalshi →
TOTAL (1 fires)$5$35.71

Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj

PickCurrentOpenMoveRaw EdgeVig-Adj EdgePrice Move
Brandon Lowe—pp+6.4pp+7.8pp⚪ flat
Open vs current Kalshi YES-ask. Vig-Adj Edge applies favorite-longshot bias correction. Price Move: 🟢 cheaper = better entry now · 🔴 pricier = worse entry. Threshold ±3¢ big move, ±1¢ small move. 1 tracked tickers.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors

🟢 Green Locks17 players

PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.

PlayerStat / variantLineL10 hit%Edge vs PPGame
Oneil Cruz PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.5100% (10/10)+40ppSTL @ PIT
Adrian Del Castillo AZHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCOL @ AZ
Konnor Griffin PIT
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSTL @ PIT
Nick Kurtz ATHHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppLAA @ ATH
Riley Greene DET
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppCLE @ DET
Spencer Horwitz PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppSTL @ PIT
Zach Neto LAAHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.590% (9/10)+30ppATH @ LAA
Aaron Judge NYYHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppTOR @ NYY
Alec Burleson STL
also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases
Hits 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppPIT @ STL
Austin Riley ATLHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppMIA @ ATL
Hunter Goodman COLHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppAZ @ COL
Marcell Ozuna PITHitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN0.580% (8/10)+20ppSTL @ PIT
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~40% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$7.06/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Riley Greene · Singles 80%🔴 Angel Martínez · RBIs 80%🔴 Juan Soto · Total Bases 70%🟢 Oneil Cruz · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 Adrian Del Castillo · Hitter Strikeouts 90%
Open PrizePicks →
🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector

🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates

PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.

PlayerStat / variantLineEst hit%Edge vs PPGame
Riley Greene DETSingles 🔴 DEMON0.580% (8/10)+40.0ppCLE @ DET
Riley Greene DETTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCLE @ DET
Riley Greene DETHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCLE @ DET
James Wood WSHTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppNYM @ WSH
Henry Bolte ATHSingles 🔴 DEMON0.557% (4/7)+17.1ppLAA @ ATH
A.J. Ewing NYMSingles 🔴 DEMON0.556% (5/9)+15.6ppWSH @ NYM
Juan Soto NYMTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppWSH @ NYM
Angel Martínez CLERBIs 🔴 DEMON0.580% (8/10)+40.0ppDET @ CLE
Spencer Horwitz PITHits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON1.570% (7/10)+30.0ppSTL @ PIT
Angel Martínez CLETotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppDET @ CLE
Dillon Dingler DETTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppCLE @ DET
Oneil Cruz PITTotal Bases 🔴 DEMON1.560% (6/10)+20.0ppSTL @ PIT
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Riley Greene · SinglesJames Wood · Total BasesHenry Bolte · SinglesA.J. Ewing · Singles
Open PrizePicks →
🎯 Total Bases Best Picks

🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked

Today's TB board: 397 🔴 Demons / 107 🟢 Goblins / 15 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).

#PlayerLineSidePA14L10ScoreWhy
1Brandon Lowe
PIT
1.5MORE545/10 50%64.8Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing average May
2Dillon Dingler
DET
1.5MORE526/10 60%61.6Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Cantillo (ace, 3.90 ERA)
3Jordan Walker
STL
1.5MORE513/10 30%61.6Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · tough matchup — Ashcraft (ace, 2.88 ERA)
4Kevin McGonigle
DET
1.5MORE532/10 20%59.1Above-avg bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Cantillo (ace, 3.90 ERA)
5Spencer Torkelson
DET
1.5MORE451/10 10%58.5Average bat · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Cantillo (ace, 3.90 ERA)
6Alec Burleson
STL
1.5MORE492/10 20%56.1Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · tough matchup — Ashcraft (ace, 2.88 ERA)
7Marcell Ozuna🔥 HOT
PIT
1.5MORE423/10 30%55.9Below-avg bat · on hot streak (5% HR rate) · facing average May
8José Ramírez
CLE
1.5MORE615/10 50%53.4Great bat 🔥 · tough matchup — Mize (ace, 2.99 ERA)
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Brandon LoweTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%STL @ PIT
2Dillon DinglerTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%CLE @ DET
3Jordan WalkerTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%PIT @ STL
Why:
  • 3 separate games (STL @ PIT / CLE @ DET / PIT @ STL) → zero same-game correlation
  • All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
  • All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
  • All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.63x (EV $-0.37/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
3/39%3.0x
2/336%1.0x
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Brandon LoweTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%STL @ PIT
2Dillon DinglerTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%CLE @ DET
3Jordan WalkerTotal Bases1.5MORE3/10 30%PIT @ STL
4José RamírezTotal Bases1.5MORE5/10 50%DET @ CLE
Why:
  • Add José Ramírez at DET @ CLE
  • 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
  • Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 48% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.61x (EV $-0.39/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
4/44%6.0x
3/422%1.5x
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from CLE @ DET — bigger upside, bigger variance.
#PlayerStatLineSideL10Game
1Dillon DinglerTotal Bases1.5MORE6/10 60%CLE @ DET
2Kevin McGonigleTotal Bases1.5MORE2/10 20%CLE @ DET
3Spencer TorkelsonTotal Bases1.5MORE1/10 10%CLE @ DET
Why:
  • 3 batters from CLE @ DET → correlated
  • If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
  • If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 30% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.20x (EV $-0.80/$1)
HitP(k)Pays
3/31%3.0x
2/316%1.0x
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Daniel Schneemann, Riley Greene, Wenceel Pérez, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)

🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed

Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 3 Demons + 4 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.

🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
5.0–8.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.20–$+4.12/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMRiley Greene Singles MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ DET
🔴 DEMAngel Martínez RBIs MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ CLE
$5 → $25–$40
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
10.8–21.0xpayout range
57.6% combined
EV $+5.22–$+11.10/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMRiley Greene Singles MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · CLE @ DET
🔴 DEMAngel Martínez RBIs MORE 0.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · DET @ CLE
🟢 GOBOneil Cruz Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · STL @ PIT
🟢 GOBKonnor Griffin Hits MORE 0.5
9/10 L10 (90%) · STL @ PIT
$5 → $54–$105
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat

⚾ MLB EdgeBoard →

Slate today1 locked
ELITE / STRONG1 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+155.64 (90 picks)

⚽ WC EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$-6.46 (17 picks)

🎾 Tennis EdgeBoard →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$-11.38 (27 picks)

🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →

Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-05-21 09:12:53 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-05-21.json