Portfolio green — 7-day P&L = $-57.48. Stake plan unchanged.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 12 live | (early) |
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 35 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks21 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | BOS @ PIT |
| Brett Bateman TOR also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (7/7) | +40pp | NYY @ TOR |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ PIT |
| Carson Benge NYM | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | WSH @ NYM |
| Carter Jensen KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAA @ KC |
| Dylan Crews WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | ATL @ AZ |
| Jake Bauers MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Jeremy Peña HOU | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SEA @ HOU |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Steven Kwan CLE also locks: Hits+Runs+RBIs, Total Bases | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | SD @ CLE |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~35% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$6.00/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Luke Maile · Hits 71%🔴 Andruw Monasterio · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🔴 Andrés Giménez · Hits+Runs+RBIs 70%🟢 Brandon Lowe · Hitter Strikeouts 100%🟢 CJ Abrams · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Maile KC | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 71% (5/7) | +31.4pp | LAA @ KC |
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PIT @ BOS |
| Salvador Perez KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | LAA @ KC |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | LAD @ MIL |
| Ceddanne Rafaela BOS | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PIT @ BOS |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYY @ TOR |
| CJ Abrams WSH | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | NYM @ WSH |
| Royce Lewis MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | PHI @ MIN |
| Gabriel Moreno AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | ATL @ AZ |
| Alejandro Kirk TOR | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | NYY @ TOR |
| Hunter Feduccia LAD | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ LAD |
| Hunter Feduccia LAD | Hits 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | MIL @ LAD |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Luke Maile · HitsAndruw Monasterio · Hits+Runs+RBIsBrice Turang · Hits+Runs+RBIsAndrés Giménez · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1052 🔴 Demons / 228 🟢 Goblins / 37 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alec Burleson🔥 HOT STL | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 5/10 50% | 74.5 | Great bat 🔥 · on hot streak (8% HR rate) · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Boyd (4.69 |
| 2 | Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 62 | 6/10 60% | 70.2 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm McGreevy (5.68 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Bryce Eldridge SF | 1.5 | MORE | 44 | 3/10 30% | 69.0 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lorenzen (6.10 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Seiya Suzuki CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 53 | 6/10 60% | 67.2 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm McGreevy (5.68 recent ERA) |
| 5 | Rafael Devers SF | 1.5 | MORE | 48 | 4/10 40% | 66.2 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Lorenzen (6.10 recent ERA) |
| 6 | Jordan Walker STL | 1.5 | MORE | 43 | 6/10 60% | 64.8 | Solid bat · hitting it hard · facing vulnerable Boyd (4.69 ERA) |
| 7 | Ian Happ CHC | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 2/10 20% | 63.6 | Below-avg bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm McGreevy (5.68 recent ERA) |
| 8 | Hunter Goodman COL | 1.5 | MORE | 39 | 3/10 30% | 63.3 | Average bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · tough matchup — Webb (ace, 3.73 E |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alec Burleson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ STL |
| 2 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ CHC |
| 3 | Jung Hoo Lee | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | COL @ SF |
Why:
- 3 separate games (CHC @ STL / STL @ CHC / COL @ SF) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.63x (EV $-0.37/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 9% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 36% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alec Burleson | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | CHC @ STL |
| 2 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ CHC |
| 3 | Jung Hoo Lee | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | COL @ SF |
| 4 | Dylan Crews | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | NYM @ WSH |
Why:
- Add Dylan Crews at NYM @ WSH
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 42% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.42x (EV $-0.58/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 3% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 17% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 3-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 3 from STL @ CHC — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ CHC |
| 2 | Seiya Suzuki | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 6/10 60% | STL @ CHC |
| 3 | Ian Happ | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 2/10 20% | STL @ CHC |
Why:
- 3 batters from STL @ CHC → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 47% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.60x (EV $-0.40/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 7% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 38% | 1.0x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
JJ Wetherholt, Ben Rice, Heliot Ramos, Kazuma Okamoto, TJ Rumfield, Cole Carrigg, Andrés Chaparro, CJ Abrams
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays2 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 2 Demons + 5 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
49.0% combined
EV $+0.47–$+1.45/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMAndrés Giménez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYY @ TOR
🔴 DEMCJ Abrams Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ WSH
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
43.6% combined
EV $+1.61–$+3.70/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMAndrés Giménez Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYY @ TOR
🔴 DEMCJ Abrams Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
7/10 L10 (70%) · NYM @ WSH
🟢 GOBGeorge Lombard Jr. Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
8/9 L10 (89%) · TOR @ NYY
🟢 GOBBrett Bateman Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
7/7 L10 (100%) · NYY @ TOR
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d6 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-08-15T05:37.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 81% | 75 | $+4.70 |
| 🟢Tennis-Tie Breaks | 66% | 74 | $+2.40 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 56% | 43 | $+0.15 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 47% | 607 | $-4.10 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 41% | 260 | $-46.00 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 32% | 487 | $-17.30 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 32% (487 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 41% (260 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 47% (607 picks)
- 🔴 UNKNOWN — 56% (43 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays10 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 2 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzenvs SF | Pitches Thrown | MORE 86.5 | 95.0 | +8.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Connor Prielippvs PHI | Pitches Thrown | MORE 86.5 | 95.0 | +8.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Michael McGreevyvs CHC | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 18.5 | 23.973 | +5.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 102 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Connor Prielippvs PHI | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 31.882 | +5.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Michael Lorenzenvs SF | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 18.5 | 23.045 | +4.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Kyle Bradishvs TB | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 26.5 | 30.494 | +4.0pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Michael Lorenzenvs SF | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.6 | +3.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Emerson Hancockvs HOU | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Cam Schlittlervs TOR | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 1.5 | 3.9 | +2.4pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 96 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Brady Singervs MIA | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.8 | +2.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 103 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🩺 Pitcher Signal Health (yesterday)
🩺Pitcher Signal Health — 2026-08-1428 starters audited
Per-tier hit rate for yesterday's pitcher classifier (WORKHORSE / RECENT_RETURN / LIMITED_STARTS / UNKNOWN). 🚨 below = recalibration needed on that tier. Source: pitcher_day_audit_*.json built by evening cron — autonomous.
| Tier | Hit / N | Hit % |
|---|---|---|
| ✅WORKHORSE / SKIP | 1/1 | 100% |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TOR | Cam Schlittler vs Braydon Fisher | 0.782 | 46% | 2.19x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| AZ @ ATL | Eduardo Rodriguez vs Grant Holmes | 0.863 | 42% | 2.37x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| KC @ LAA | Randy Dobnak vs Reid Detmers | 0.871 | 42% | 2.39x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| MIL @ LAD | Jacob Misiorowski vs Justin Wrobleski | 0.911 | 40% | 2.49x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SEA @ HOU | Emerson Hancock vs Hayden Wesneski | 0.967 | 38% | 2.63x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| STL @ CHC | Michael McGreevy vs Matthew Boyd | 0.973 | 38% | 2.64x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ CIN | Ryan Gusto vs Brady Singer | 1.243 | 71% | 1.41x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| WSH @ NYM | Brad Lord vs Sean Manaea | 1.217 | 70% | 1.42x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| COL @ SF | Michael Lorenzen vs Logan Webb | 1.162 | 69% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| BOS @ PIT | Sonny Gray vs Jared Jones | 1.157 | 68% | 1.46x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| PHI @ MIN | Jesús Luzardo vs Connor Prielipp | 1.123 | 68% | 1.48x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| SD @ CLE | TBD vs Joey Cantillo | 1.057 | 65% | 1.53x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-08-15 11:03:14 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-15.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-08-15.json