STOP-LOSS YELLOW — 7-day portfolio P&L = $-105.24. Halve real-money stakes today.
Live Portfolio · today
| Sport | P&L | Record | Live | Health |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 13 live | (early) |
| ⚽ WC | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 10 live | (early) |
| 🏈 NFL | — | no slate today | ||
| PORTFOLIO | $0.00 | 0W / 0L | 23 live | — |
Today's Fires — Real Money Plan
0 ranked
FULL REAL MONEY PLAN — $0 total stake · 0 fires
No real-money plays meeting threshold today.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Stay paper, build calibration data.
Line Movement & EV Screen CLV + vig-adj
No locked picks intersect line_history yet — CLV tracking will populate as the day progresses.
PrizePicks
Pitcher Plays
1st Inning
Parlays
Results
🟢 Green Locks · PP safe Power-Play floors
🟢 Green Locks19 players
PrizePicks 🟢 Goblins (lower lines, ~60% implied) and ⚪ Standards (~50% implied) where this player's L10 actual hit rate clears the line at 75%+. ⚠️ Do NOT stack 5-6 Goblins alone — PP pays only 4-5x on all-Goblin Power Plays (verified 2026-05-18). Use these as insurance legs in a Demon-anchored Power Play (3 Demons + 2 Locks → ~20x with high floor). See the suggested HYBRID combo below.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | L10 hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TB @ KC |
| Brice Turang MIL | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CIN @ MIL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT also locks: Hits, Total Bases | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | PHI @ PIT |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CHC @ SD |
| Ian Happ CHC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | SD @ CHC |
| Jac Caglianone KC | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | TB @ KC |
| Nicky Lopez TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | CLE @ TEX |
| TJ Rumfield COL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 100% (10/10) | +40pp | MIA @ COL |
| Brandon Marsh PHI | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | PIT @ PHI |
| Carson Benge NYM | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | TOR @ NYM |
| Jake McCarthy COL also locks: Total Bases, Hits+Runs+RBIs | Hits 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | MIA @ COL |
| James Wood WSH | Hitter Strikeouts 🟢 GOBLIN | 0.5 | 90% (9/10) | +30pp | BOS @ WSH |
Suggested 5-leg HYBRID Power Play
3 Demons (high multiplier) + 2 Green Lock insurance. ~51% combined hit prob × ~20x = EV +$9.24/$1 stake. All-Goblin stacks pay 4-5x (garbage); hybrid pays 20x+ when Demons are real.
🔴 Ketel Marte · Total Bases 80%🔴 Anthony Seigler · Hits+Runs+RBIs 80%🔴 Jake McCarthy · Total Bases 80%🟢 Bobby Witt Jr. · Hits+Runs+RBIs 100%🟢 Brice Turang · Hitter Strikeouts 100%
Open PrizePicks →🎁 Mispriced Demons · PrizePicks gift detector
🎁 Mispriced PP Demons15 candidates
PP prices these as ~40% (Demon variant = ~2x multiplier) but our model says they clear at the % shown. Today's 5/17 $110 win came from stacking 4 of these. Build a 3-4-leg Power Play on PrizePicks — pick from different games for uncorrelation. Verify multiplier on the app.
| Player | Stat / variant | Line | Est hit% | Edge vs PP | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte AZ | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | SF @ AZ |
| Anthony Seigler BOS | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | WSH @ BOS |
| TJ Rumfield COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIA @ COL |
| Elias Díaz TEX | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | CLE @ TEX |
| Jake McCarthy COL | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 80% (8/10) | +40.0pp | MIA @ COL |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | PHI @ PIT |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | ATL @ STL |
| Denzer Guzman LAA | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 60% (6/10) | +20.0pp | SEA @ LAA |
| Kameron Misner KC | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 56% (5/9) | +15.6pp | TB @ KC |
| Austin Hedges CLE | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 0.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | TEX @ CLE |
| Victor Caratini MIN | Total Bases 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | HOU @ MIN |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | Hits+Runs+RBIs 🔴 DEMON | 1.5 | 70% (7/10) | +30.0pp | MIN @ HOU |
Suggested 4-leg Power Play (different games)
Ketel Marte · Total BasesAnthony Seigler · Hits+Runs+RBIsTJ Rumfield · Total BasesElias Díaz · Hits+Runs+RBIs
Open PrizePicks →🎯 Total Bases Best Picks
🎯 Total Bases Best Pickstop 8 composite-ranked
Today's TB board: 1160 🔴 Demons / 262 🟢 Goblins / 57 Standards. Composite score = 30% form + 25% pitcher matchup + 25% barrel + 15% park + 5% sample density. COLDs auto-skipped. Lineup-gated (scratches removed).
| # | Player | Line | Side | PA14 | L10 | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac Caglianone🔥 HOT KC | 1.5 | MORE | 49 | 5/10 50% | 81.0 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (12% HR rate) · crushing the ball · facing vulnerable Jax (5 |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 52 | 5/10 50% | 80.7 | Elite bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Gibson (5.61 recent ERA) |
| 3 | Randal Grichuk CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 30 | 4/10 40% | 78.0 | Great bat 🔥 · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Gibson (5.61 recent ERA) |
| 4 | Sal Stewart CIN | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 4/10 40% | 73.9 | Solid bat · crushing the ball · hitter-friendly park · facing vulnerable Sproat (4.82 ERA) |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani🔥 HOT LAD | 1.5 | MORE | 46 | 5/10 50% | 73.6 | Elite bat 🔥 · on hot streak (9% HR rate) · crushing the ball |
| 6 | Sam Antonacci🔥 HOT CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 55 | 5/10 50% | 72.8 | Above-avg bat · on hot streak (4% HR rate) · facing BP-arm Gibson (5.61 recent ERA) |
| 7 | Colson Montgomery CWS | 1.5 | MORE | 51 | 3/10 30% | 72.0 | Average bat · hitting it hard · facing BP-arm Gibson (5.61 recent ERA) |
| 8 | Kyle Schwarber PHI | 1.5 | MORE | 50 | 4/10 40% | 72.0 | Great bat 🔥 · crushing the ball · facing average Chandler |
Primary: 3-leg Triple-Threat (5x payout est)
Standard 3-leg = 5x. $5 → $25. Lowest risk.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | BAL @ CWS |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | MIL @ CIN |
| 3 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ PHI |
Why:
- 3 separate games (BAL @ CWS / MIL @ CIN / PIT @ PHI) → zero same-game correlation
- All 3 have PA14 ≥ 50 → dense data, gate-approved
- All face vulnerable pitchers (xFIP / recent ERA ≥ 4.40)
- All HOT batters with high HR/PA rates
📐 Math (Flex 3-leg)
Break-even/leg: 57.74% · Our avg L10: 43% · need 57.7% per leg
Expected payout: 0.56x (EV $-0.44/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 3/3 | 8% | 3.0x |
| 2/3 | 32% | 1.0x |
Upside: 4-leg add (10x payout est)
Standard 4-leg = 10x. $5 → $50. Same thesis + 1 more game.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | BAL @ CWS |
| 2 | Sal Stewart | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | MIL @ CIN |
| 3 | Kyle Schwarber | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | PIT @ PHI |
| 4 | Willson Contreras | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | WSH @ BOS |
Why:
- Add Willson Contreras at WSH @ BOS
- 4 separate games — still uncorrelated
- Same dense-data + HOT-bat thesis as primary
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 45% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.54x (EV $-0.46/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 4% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 20% | 1.5x |
High-upside: 4-leg same-game stack (correlated)
All 4 from BAL @ CWS — bigger upside, bigger variance.
| # | Player | Stat | Line | Side | L10 | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | BAL @ CWS |
| 2 | Randal Grichuk | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 4/10 40% | BAL @ CWS |
| 3 | Sam Antonacci | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 5/10 50% | BAL @ CWS |
| 4 | Colson Montgomery | Total Bases | 1.5 | MORE | 3/10 30% | BAL @ CWS |
Why:
- 4 batters from BAL @ CWS → correlated
- If the pitcher gets shelled, all legs hit together
- If pitcher pitches a gem, all die together
📐 Math (Flex 4-leg)
Break-even/leg: 55.03% · Our avg L10: 42% · need 55.0% per leg
Expected payout: 0.44x (EV $-0.56/$1)
| Hit | P(k) | Pays |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 3% | 6.0x |
| 3/4 | 18% | 1.5x |
Auto-faded (caught by gates):
Chase Meidroth, Brayan Rocchio, Josh Jung, J.T. Realmuto, Ernie Clement, Keibert Ruiz, Daylen Lile, James Wood
🎲 Solid PP Parlays (8-25x)
🎰 Solid Power Play Parlays3 suggestedlineup-gated · scratches auto-removed
Auto-built using top Mispriced Demons (L10 ≥ 70%) + top Green Locks (L10 ≥ 85%). Different games for uncorrelation · max 2 same-team · scratched players removed via MLB lineup card check. Universe: 9 Demons + 17 Locks tonight. Verify multiplier on PP app — PP adjusts when lineups shift.
🛡️ SAFEST
2-pick
3.0–5.0xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+0.92–$+2.20/$1
Lowest-leg-count Power Play. Both Demons at 70%+ L10 → combined hit prob is high. 13.5x boosted = 8-10x effective.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMAnthony Seigler Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · WSH @ BOS
$5 → $15–$25
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
⚖️ BALANCED
4-pick
6.0–10.8xpayout range
64.0% combined
EV $+2.84–$+5.91/$1
2 Demons anchor for multiplier, 2 Locks as insurance. If 1 Demon misses, the Locks still gives partial payout via PP's 'win contest or 5 of 5' refund.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMAnthony Seigler Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · WSH @ BOS
🟢 GOBIan Happ Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SD @ CHC
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PHI @ PIT
$5 → $30–$54
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
🚀 HUNGRY
5-pick
9.0–18.0xpayout range
51.2% combined
EV $+3.61–$+8.22/$1
Top 3 Demons + 2 Lock insurance. 22-35x payout potential. Even on 4/5 you get the contest refund. The 5/17 +$110 PP win was this structure.
🔴 DEMKetel Marte Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · SF @ AZ
🔴 DEMAnthony Seigler Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · WSH @ BOS
🔴 DEMJake McCarthy Total Bases MORE 1.5
8/10 L10 (80%) · MIA @ COL
🟢 GOBIan Happ Hitter Strikeouts MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · SD @ CHC
🟢 GOBBryan Reynolds Hits+Runs+RBIs MORE 0.5
10/10 L10 (100%) · PHI @ PIT
$5 → $45–$90
⚠️ verify mult on PP — varies by stat
📊Prop Category Leaderboard — last 30d9 categories tracked
Per-prop-type hit rate + P&L across all graded paper trades. Tomorrow's daily_deployment auto-prioritizes the top categories. Updated 2026-06-30T05:38.
| Prop category | Hit % | N | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢MLB-Walks Allowed | 100% | 6 | $+6.00 |
| 🟢Tennis-Total Sets | 65% | 216 | $+6.40 |
| 🟢MLB-Pitcher Ks | 62% | 21 | $+3.50 |
| 🟡UNKNOWN | 58% | 105 | $+37.93 |
| 🟡Tennis-Tie Breaks | 51% | 213 | $+0.50 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games Won | 43% | 1225 | $-18.10 |
| 🔴Tennis-Total Games | 41% | 1455 | $-26.30 |
| 🔴MLB-Total Bases | 39% | 247 | $-53.00 |
🚨 Auto-fade these categories
- 🔴 MLB-Pitcher Fantasy — 38% (13 picks)
- 🔴 MLB-Total Bases — 39% (247 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games — 41% (1455 picks)
- 🔴 Tennis-Total Games Won — 43% (1225 picks)
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays
🎯 High-Conviction Pitcher Plays7 trusted
Filtered the pp_edges pitcher LESS-stack to ONLY the picks with a real pitch-cap signal (🩹 IL return, 🌱 limited starts, ⛔ short-leash) + the lone 🐎 workhorse MORE. Suppressed 5 model over-corrections on healthy starters.
| Pitcher | Stat | Side | Proj | Edge | Signal | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatorevs ATL | Pitches Thrown | MORE 86.5 | 95.0 | +8.5pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Matthew Liberatorevs ATL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 20.5 | 28.6 | +8.1pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Cade Cavallivs BOS | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 24.5 | 30.367 | +5.9pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Rhett Lowdervs MIL | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 20.5 | 25.649 | +5.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 100 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Noah Cameronvs TB | Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE 23.5 | 27.719 | +4.2pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 108 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Trey Gibsonvs CWS | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.7pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 97 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
| Connelly Earlyvs WSH | Earned Runs Allowed | MORE 2.5 | 4.8 | +2.3pp | 🐎 WORKHORSE | Workhorse — max 98 pitches recently (confirms MORE not LESS) |
🛡️ NRFI/YRFI — 1st Inning Poisson Model
🛡️ NRFI candidates (no run in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ NYY | Tarik Skubal vs Cam Schlittler | 0.844 | 43% | 2.33x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| TEX @ CLE | Jacob deGrom vs Tanner Bibee | 0.922 | 40% | 2.51x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| WSH @ BOS | Cade Cavalli vs Connelly Early | 1.051 | 35% | 2.86x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| SF @ AZ | Landen Roupp vs TBD | 1.059 | 35% | 2.88x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| LAA @ SEA | José Soriano vs Bryan Woo | 1.077 | 34% | 2.93x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
| PIT @ PHI | Bubba Chandler vs Cristopher Sánchez | 1.078 | 34% | 2.94x | ⚡ Kalshi NO |
⚾ YRFI candidates (run scored in 1st)
| Game | Starters | Exp R1 | Prob | Fair odds | Fire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ BAL | Erick Fedde vs Trey Gibson | 1.474 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| CIN @ MIL | Rhett Lowder vs Brandon Sproat | 1.464 | 77% | 1.3x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIA @ COL | Eury Pérez vs Tanner Gordon | 1.402 | 75% | 1.33x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| MIN @ HOU | Joe Ryan vs Mike Burrows | 1.265 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| LAD @ ATH | Justin Wrobleski vs Jeffrey Springs | 1.265 | 72% | 1.39x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
| STL @ ATL | Matthew Liberatore vs Martín Pérez | 1.247 | 71% | 1.4x | ⚡ Kalshi YES |
Model: team RPG / 9 × 1.15 (inning-1 weight) × pitcher xERA adj → Poisson P(0 runs). League baseline ~30-34% NRFI. Top picks at 42%+ = +8-10pp edge over baseline. ⚡ Kalshi KXMLBRFI series hosts these markets — tap the fire button to open the exact market with YES (YRFI) or NO (NRFI) side pre-selected.
🔗 Parlay Suggestions (0 uncorrelated)
No uncorrelated parlay candidates today. Stay on straight plays.
📋 Today's Results (0 locked)
No picks settled yet today.
🏈 NFL EdgeBoard (off-season — kickoff Sept 11) →
Slate today0 locked
ELITE / STRONG0 / 0
7-day paper P&L$+0.00 (0 picks)
Money Slate · generated 2026-06-30 10:43:13 · meta-refresh every 120s · edgeboard-home.pages.dev
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-30.json
Picks aggregated from forecastcard_mirror{,_wc,_tennis}/paper_trades_*_2026-06-30.json